Blonde Poker are in

cool beans i am going to try my best to make it this year

Would be great to see you again mate. Hope you make it.

Good Luck with the Blonde Team

[Pole Position: Sebastian Vettel]

It's the Azerbaijan GP this weekend. Disappointed to see a lack of decent prices in the midfield, but there is value to be had at the front of the grid.

Pole Position: Sebastian Vettel @ 14/5 with BetStars. Based on what I have seen so far this weekend, I'm struggling to picture anyone other than the Ferrari's at the front. 14/5 is an excellent price here, suggest £50.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/azerbaijan-gp/pole-position

Race Winner: Daniel Ricciardo @ 11/2 with various (I got boosted to 6/1 will Hills for some reason). Red Bull may struggle in qualifying, but their long run pace today was very strong. That, in combination with the crazy racing we get on this circuit, as well as the 80 kph winds expected on Sunday, makes 11/2 a very good spot. Suggest £20. EW is an option, but I'm going for the win personally.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/azerbaijan-gp/winner

Podium Finish: Kimi Raikkonen @ 2/1 with William Hill and Bet Stars. Thin value here, but value nonetheless. Purely because the Ferrari is the fastest car on the grid right now. Suggest £10.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/azerbaijan-gp/top-3-finish

Also, one for the season.

Championship Winner: Daniel Ricciardo @ 25/1+ with various. Red Bull are getting stronger compared to their rivals, and I don't think we'll see prices this high again for a while. It could be argued that this is a bad spot because the Renault "Tag Heuer" engine will have reliability issues later in the season .. but that's certainly not guaranteed. I like this price, it should be a good sweat. Suggest £20.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/winner

I have a question if that is OK for the experts on this race. Why is Vettel 2.34 on Exchanges for this race?

Surely he should be closer to evens than that? He does have the fastest car, I know Mercedes can split their strategy but this still looks quite big to me. Wonder if I am missing something. Is the thinking Vettel will struggle to stay ahead after a safety car due to Mercedes faster straight line speed or something like that?

Just looks to me that Vettel really should be winning if he gets a clean race?

Does anybody see any value in Rob Cross 10/3 on Stan James for The Masters today. 1/2 ew odds for 2 places. Looks like there has to be some value in this bet? He does not meet MVG or Gary Anderson until the final does he? So he just needs to beat Mensur and then probably Peter Wright (possibly Barney). Looks like it should be a good bet?

Just found out about this. Shame from Blondes point of view but hopefully it is good news for Tighty. For a lot of us who just sort of lost interest in the forum due to a lot of info about DTD which just didn’t seem relevant to us it will likely mean that some people post on the forum a bit more. Will probably start looking back at this site now to see what gets posted and will hopefully start posting again.

I would have expected this to be a fold, my logic for this might well be flawed though. To begin with as we don't have any real reads I am using population tendencies to make some decisions and it is possible this is wrong.

When we get a random open from EP I give him some sort of credit for having a hand but still expect my AK to be in front and I am going to have position post flop, I am therefore planning a 3-bet as I am going to be able to control the size of the pot quite well post flop and can flop a dominant hand against his range. This changes a bit when there is a 3-bet in front of me, I expect the player to be using the same sort of logic as myself (in some way) and his range to therefore be a bit tighter. I would not expect AJ to be in his 3-bet range here for example. Therefore the only hand I really expect to dominate a lot of the time is AQ. I may well be flipping against some pairs like TT, JJ and QQ. I don't think you get too many people 3-betting early in this sort of comp with suited cards like 67 or A4 for example especially not Vs an EP raiser with a number of people still to act behind. I therefore do not see the value of a 4-bet. A call might be OK but we will kind of have to fold whenever we miss the flop and even when we hit it we can still be behind as AA and KK are in the range of the 3 bettor. Also we do not close the action here and we could end up getting raised again and having to fold, this is only a small loss I admit but I do wonder if it is worth it. If we do flat call and on the flop and turn the 3 bettor suddenly wants to pile chips into the pot are we going with it? Hands like QQ or AQ are surely not getting too excited on an ace high or king high flop? Does not sound we win much when we are ahead. AA probably is pretty happy on a King high flop and whilst AA and KK are less likely hands due to our blockers when money starts to fly into the pot on the flop and turn it has to be considered. Feels like a lot of the time we hit we will get maybe one more bet and that will be it and it is more likely we end up losing a big pot than winning one?

Not sure how well I have explained that there but that is what I was thinking anyway. Out of interest do people think this decision changes if the starting stack is changed? What if it was say 15K instead of 30K or 10K even? I would have thought that would make it more of a fold but wondering if I am using floored logic here?

Hahahaha, I didnt wanna derail TfT hence putting it in here!

Ah well, shall keep my eyes open for another team dying

Wrong idea completely, Toro Rosso are funded by Red Bull and are not financially under threat 

Speaking of Red Bull they have today parted ways with Renault I see, not really a surprise I know. Sounds like it will be Red Bull Ferrari next year. Interesting choice by Ferrari imo I would expect Red Bull to beat them if they have the same engine?

While we're awaiting a decision, I think this will decide the title.

Either Hamilton retains his big lead and will win the title, or Hamilton will get angry, lose composure and essentially hand the title to Nico. In my opinion only of course.

No penalty, tyres were the correct pressure when they went on the car.

Surprised by this thought it was a sure DSQ. Would quite like to see Nico take it this year but doubt that is happening now. Any thoughts on the championship without Hamilton? Nico seems to be struggling Vs Vettel in recent races?

I would like to see that as well if you don't mind.

Don't you end up getting restricted by taking advantage of this?

The best way I can explain myself is through an example. Let's look at the race win market tomorrow for the Belgian GP. Roberto Merhi and Will Stevens are both 7500/1 to win the race. However, if you ran the race 7500 times - they would more than likely win two of them, albeit under exceptionally crazy circumstances. Does this mean we should bet big on Manor every GP? No, certainly not, surely?

Firstly let me say my knowledge of sports betting is non-existent but how is this right?

If they would win the race twice if you ran it 7500 times then surely a small bet on them every race (maybe just like 10p) would be correct? There is still an edge there?

Am I misunderstanding?

I don't understand why you haven't considered that your opponent could have flopped a set at any point? Seems consistent to smooth call flop with a set that has improved to full house on the turn?

btw I am not saying he has to have a set, but surely it has to be one of the hands you consider he has?

Also you say river doesn't change anything, but it seems you think TT could be in the range of hands he gets to the river with, so the T on the river is definitely not a blank.

It did (and I assume he actually did  ), but I don't see what difference that makes to how I play the hand until maybe after he has called the turn. He has not raised until the river. I have to bet the flop and think betting the turn is best, I would have got it in on the flop had he raised and likely folded the turn.

I agree about the TT (which was an error in my OP) is this enough to change the play to being a check/call or check/fold rather than a bet/fold? It actually might be?

Just want to check any thoughts anybody has on this one. Not a lot of info on it just wondering how I play each street and thoughts on my thinking. Tournament is an $11 Deepstack early on.

I have JJ and min raise getting called preflop by the button and BB. I think I am in good shape pre flop as hands like AA, KK and QQ would often 3-bet me here? Fair enough thinking? So when the flop comes down it is pretty good for my hand really dry with no obvious draws. I c-bet about two thirds of the pot and get a call from the button. At this point I think he can have some kind of 8 or maybe a pocket pair, maybe 99 or TT. QQ is possible but does not feel likely. The turn is a fairly good card for my hand and I am thinking if he has a PP he is likely to pay me again on the turn. I bet about 60% of pot and he calls after thinking for a while. The river does not change anything so I bet again, is that bad thinking I can get calls from a random 8 and 99 TT like hands? He raises pretty quickly what do I do here? This is and easy fold now right?

Where do I get this hand wrong, preflop and flop have to be OK, turn feels OK to be honest unsure what the best river line is in this kind of spot.

PokerStars Hand #139332796376: Tournament #1292680827, $10+$1 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level II (50/100) - 2015/08/13 18:19:52 WET [2015/08/13 13:19:52 ET]
Table '1292680827 20' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: J_Dianda (10920 in chips)
Seat 2: abumaruo89 (9860 in chips)
Seat 3: Harrry85 (10130 in chips)
Seat 4: giovanny1985 (9500 in chips)
Seat 5: 33teetwo33 (10465 in chips)
Seat 6: KingAssi (10650 in chips)
Seat 7: donkey i am (9087 in chips)
Seat 8: AmpAmpAmpAmp (10230 in chips)
Seat 9: aleksroyil (10000 in chips)
J_Dianda: posts the ante 10
abumaruo89: posts the ante 10
Harrry85: posts the ante 10
giovanny1985: posts the ante 10
33teetwo33: posts the ante 10
KingAssi: posts the ante 10
donkey i am: posts the ante 10
AmpAmpAmpAmp: posts the ante 10
aleksroyil: posts the ante 10
AmpAmpAmpAmp: posts small blind 50
aleksroyil: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to 33teetwo33 [ ]
J_Dianda: folds
abumaruo89: folds
Harrry85: folds
giovanny1985: folds
33teetwo33: raises 100 to 200
KingAssi: folds
donkey i am: calls 200
AmpAmpAmpAmp: folds
aleksroyil: calls 100
*** FLOP *** [ ]
aleksroyil: checks
33teetwo33: bets 500
donkey i am: calls 500
aleksroyil: folds
*** TURN *** [ ] []
33teetwo33: bets 1000
donkey i am: calls 1000
*** RIVER *** [ ] []
33teetwo33: bets 2000
donkey i am: raises 5377 to 7377 and is all-in
33teetwo33: Folds

5.74% is some going with so many different views e.t.c

Well done all

Can I ask what is a good ROI % on sports betting, what would the successful punters like Arbboy, Dubai and Chompy hope to see over a large sample size in terms of %?

I would probably shove. You are never in great shape when called obviously but in this spot you get LOADS of folds and you still flip against AK and AQ type hands and win the bounty (so your EV is slightly better). I may not shove if I did that a couple of times to him in the last few rounds in the same kind of spot but probably would not make the opening raise if that was the case.

Why 3x preflop btw? Is there a reason for this, you can just min raise here or maybe just a little over min.

Shove > Fold > Call

[It's clearly not just the luck of the toss since Australia won the toss yesterday ( yes, it was only yesterday).]

We've had three Test Matches so far this series where the result will have been an emphatic victory but the winning team has changed each time.

It's clearly not just the luck of the toss since Australia won the toss yesterday ( yes, it was only yesterday).

It's not the players since the majority of those involved in this match were involved in the last two.

Is there a sport, other than cricket, where form can swing so wildly in so short a time?

That kind of was luck of the toss though, Pretty sure Cook would have batted too..

Is it own to different conditions favouring different teams? Australia liking faster pitches for example? An example along the same line might be Tennis when you had Federer and Nadal at the top. Federer would usually win pretty convincingly on grass and Nadal would almost always win on clay. Same kind of thing I would suggest?

[lewis made the right call, at exactly the right time, but it was close. could easily have been a lap too early]

Did Rosberg have a chance of winning if he'd stayed out on the intermediate tyres?

stayed out on the hard dry tyres you mean?

no, it rained too hard for ten laps

lewis made the right call, at exactly the right time, but it was close. could easily have been a lap too early

He was more forced to make the call than making the right call at the right time I think. The fact he ran wide at Copse had killed the heat in his tyres whilst Rosbergs were up to temperature due to having to get past the Williams'. Rosberg was going to overtake him anyway in those conditions and then would have had the option on making the first pit stop putting Hamilton in trouble potentially. As it worked out it was the correct decision but yes, it could easily have cost him.