Thanks been watching Aoife play with my new tablet all day my turn now!

forget super GM's forget ratings north of 2500 the big game yesterday was obviously the Ballinasloe chess clubs junior B (under11) final which was won by My Daughter Aoife who is now the proud owner of a little silver cup. she is also apparently the first girl to win a club championship at any age group ever (since 2002 when they started) /brag #datsmygirl

13/13 here my 10 yr old got 10/13 which makes her better than 62% of the adult population bit scary that!

Cannot be a 2 shot penalty as he has signed his card so he would be 'd for signing for the wrong score.

[last]

Tiger had 3 options
A the dropping zone
B playing from where it was (he said he went 2 yards further back or
C . Drop a ball behind the water hazard, keeping the point at which the original ball last crossed the margin of the water hazard directly between the hole and the spot on which the ball is dropped, with no limit to how far behind the water hazard the ball may be dropped;

He did a mixture of B&C so has to be 'd bet 100% on getting 'd

Augusta are probably waiting for tiger to himself their is NO WAY that aclub built by Bobby Jones will bend the rules for tiger, when Jones was congratulated on calling apenalty on himself he replied you may as well congratulate me for not robbing a bank!. this will be the attitude of the members and CBS needs Augusta more than AUgusta needs CBS so i dont think pressure from tv will matter.

tiger definately took an illegal drop and if he isn't disqualified then I will never watch golf again in fact he should disqualify himself the rules are for everyone I would lay woods for the entire bank.

cough cough Micheal Weaver top Amateur cough cough
 in case you forgot.

Ironically he is paired with Craig Stadler for the first day (weaver posts on 2+2 as Stadler)

Tiger is definitely an exception in the fact he was/hopefully is/probably always will be, such a good front runner and win machine, hence his skewed stats on win to place ratio compared to other golfers. Which is why I could definitely listen to anyone suggesting markets overestimating x and underestimating y when it comes to Tiger. I think he is a real anomoly and therefore a lot harder to price up to win events than any other golfer and maybe sports person or team, especially at the moment

exactly i would say he could be the only golfer in history to have such a skewed record well maybe Byron Nelson in the 40's but i knew without looking that he had so many more 1st's than 2nd's etc that i just had to look it up i know Nickluas had 18 major wins but 19 seconds woods has 14 wins and only 6 seconds in majors and i was surprised it was that many tbh.

Gonzo to be honest i dont know 3/1 seems fair but you have to assume he will really suffer on those quick slopey greens then again 4/11 Garcia does not exactly set the pulse racing either will Castano beat Garcia more than 25% of the time meh probably.

At the masters he has won 4 times and placed a further 6 times (top5) and has placed 7 of the last 8 years so yeah 6/4 is almost certainly still value for this tournament but i think 6/1 is better value.

can't believe Neil called me a shrewd punter I'm not normally but if i publish my opinion on Fred then i do much infinitely more homework.

anyway Weaver for top Am.

to rinswun i will discount the 6th as hills are only top 5 so 4 wins 6 other places

if you backed him £200 win @ 5's you would return 4800 less 2000 = 2800 profit

if 100 ew 6*225(1350) + 4*825(3300) - 2000 = 2650 profit this assuming you get full place odds when he placed and there is no 3 way tie for 4th etc.

if 4/1 is his true odds of winning ie 1 time in 5 then his chance of placing would 2 in 5 which is 6/4  would'nt you just be better smashing into the win part and laying that off?

I think E/W is bad value as tiger does not place often enough! let me explain...
Tiger has played 298 pga tour events winning 77 of them finising 2nd 28 times and 3rd on 19 occasions according to pga tour.com i dont know how often he has finished 4th or 5th but he has 180 top tens which include the wins and 2nds etc this ratio would suggest he is almost more likely to win than have a non winning place so why would you take 6/4 on him finishing 1-5 when when he does finish top 5 most of the time he wins and you can get 6/1 for him to finish 1st?

lets say he wins 50% of the time that he is top 5 (not an unreasonable assumption given his history) and your choices are £100 E/W or £200 win @ 6/1
so when he places you return either 250 or zero.
when he wins you return 950 or 1400.

your EV when you place the win bet is £700 every time tiger places.
your EV when you bet E/W is £600 every time tiger places.

I REALLY think i am right but mr Channing may prove me wrong but on this very rare occasion i dont think he will.

I have a fantastic bet for the masters in the top amateur market we have 6 amateurs playing..

 one is a 14 yr old chinese kid Tian -lang Guan who could be brilliant but according to a ESPN article i read hits it about 250 off the tee so TOO short no chance.

Another is Nathan Smith who is the US Mid Am champ and has won that title a few times his best round in 2 previous masters apperances is 74 could be a danger but my feeling is why is a 35 yr old still an amateur Possible Danger.

Alan Dunbar is the british Amateur champ from Ireland And although i would love to see him do well no British Amateur has ever really done well at augusta Alien conditions too early in the season maybe reasons why.

TJ Vogel is the US public links champ and is a good player but has struggled a bit this spring often only being the rd or 4th best player on his team.  out of form.

which brings me to the top 2 in the betting market the winner and runner up in last years us amateur Steven Fox And Micheal Weaver.
 Fox plays for Tennessee Chatanooga while Weaver plays for Cal, I would describe Cal as a top calibre program (think spurs arsenal etc) chatanooga might be the third best program in the state.
 Fox has some good results this spring finishing 2nd in the Ole miss tournament Weaver also has some good results a 4th at Isleworth stands out. I watched that us am final and fox holed absolutely everything Weaver outhit him by 25-30 yards every hole had what looked to be a far superior swing and had it not been for an ugly spike mark whch deflected his 4 foot putt on the 36th  he would have won and he would be favourite.  

I think Weaver would be a massive favorite in a match bet with Fox at Augusta due to his length and ball striking yet hills go 2/1 fox 7/2 Weaver ladborkes also go 7/2 I am Suggesting £60 at 7/2 Micheal weaver to be top Amateur. I think he is realistically between 30-40% chance ie 9/4-6/4 and 7/2 represents great value.

as an aside Weaver is an occasional poster on 2+2 where he posts as Stadler in the golf section mostly obv.

got there! should have been easier Michigan played matador defense for 37 mins thank god for Trey Burke doing a jordan impression down the stretch.

OT come on michigan