will private message u...

happy to pay £360

Oioi Michael Carter-Williams., MC Dub himself, confirms his status as Fred's fave basketballer by being named rookie of the year. Our best NBA bet and digs into those historic losses. I read today 8 of the top 10 draft picks got 0 votes for ROTY, shows what a bad draft it was. My fault that we didn't bet more with Fred, was tricky with tikay awol at Glitter Gulch but in better news, I had a decent lump on 

After some protracted first rounds and some shocks in individual games, all the teams we wanted/predicted are through to the Conf semis, starting tonight. Have to say I don't fancy Brooklyn that much, I really hoped Garnett and Pierce, two wily old warhorses, had been freewheeling the regular season and would burst into life in the post season, but not sure it's gonna happen....maybe they're just a bit past their best. Still, they have a ridic record against Miami this season (won all 4 games!) and Fred has cover in the shape of the finals bet, so nothing can go too wrong there. Indy play Washington in the other semi, think whoever wins that loses the Conf final.

OKC, our other outright bet, have looked a little stretched in the first round, but they're through and they still have their star player KD to hit his straps, so there's a chance there, and I'd expect them to beat the Clippers. San Antonio play Portland in the other semi in the West and they shouldn't have too much trouble there

niftttty pls

FUCKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK

Jeez, great shout trigger, close to the cake....

Did I miss out Dan? Got confused by the double thread thing....in for a nifty again if I can?

Following the racist comments from Sterling and all the reactions, Clippers are 6 points favourites against the Warriors tonight.

what bet do the bball boys want, if any?

Interested in red's view before we steam into anything.

Adam Silver (NBA Commish) gives a press conf in NY at 2pm Eastern, think that's in 15 mins. See what comes out of that. Such a unique situation I'm wary of betting too much, who knows how u react. From a strict practice point of view, they can't be fully prepared for the game. I imagine it affects the Warriors players to an extent too tho. FWIW I backed GSW and GSW +6.5 yesterday with the intention of laying some back later if the chance arose.

Hi Tighty. Should one be lucky enough to win a seat on both Stars and DtD, and want to use one to play and one as a second bullet should it be required, how would u go about that? What order should they be used, and what are the options for both sites should bullet number two not be requrired? Does it matter in what order they were won? I'm guessing it's one reentry per day btw

I will be back with most of those answers

As to the re-entry format

1a and 1b you can re-enter into a later day ONLY (1a into 1b or 1c, 1b into 1c)

1c, the Friday, plays as a freezeout

from DTD

"As far as I understand your Pokerstars seat will always go in the prizepool ie all no shows are physically entered on 1C chips in play end of late reg.

So by this rule I would use stars seat first and then the Dtd seat.

Dtd rule is as long as you use your first seat (either Dtd or stars) you can carry the second seat forward to other events or use for re-entry if needed.

All re-entries can be done at DTD regardless of which buy in method and both Dtd and stars teams will be there to assist "

Thanks mr End, makes perfect sense

Gotta sweat...overtime one tiiiiime. Might need double OT tbf like!

Abs boks....halftime in the Mavs Spurs game and overs has no chance, Dallas got 36 at halftime, lowest for a goodly while. Sigh

Hi Tighty. Should one be lucky enough to win a seat on both Stars and DtD, and want to use one to play and one as a second bullet should it be required, how would u go about that? What order should they be used, and what are the options for both sites should bullet number two not be requrired? Does it matter in what order they were won? I'm guessing it's one reentry per day btw

Red/Argue....how do u decide what's bes, 10/11 at one total or evens at a point higher or whatever. Is there proper maths behind it or is it a feel thing? Same for if say we can back a horse at 16/1 ew with 4 places or 14/1 ew with 5 places (or whatever).

Is that a question best asked on the maths thread?

The NBA are fairly easy to work out.  Each individual point is likely to land a certain amount of time so has a value.  In the NBA for a regular pointspread most half points are worth about 0.05 in decimals.  So-3 2.0 is about the same as -3.5 2.05.  They differ slightly as some pointspreads are more likely to fall and I have charts for them but as a rule 0.05 is fine.

As for horseracing places - feel is better.  There is some very heavy academic work on how likely a horse is to place and nobody has "solved" it as such but if you look at enough of them you get a reasonably good feel.  An okay rule of thumb is if you turn the prices into percentages so in the case you said.  The place price at 14/1 is 7/2 (14/4) or 22.22% for 5 places.  For 4 places it is 4/1 (16/4) or 20%so they are effectively they are saying there is a 2.22% chance of your horse coming 5th (22.22%-20%) which is about a 45/1 shot so ask yourself would I back this horse to come fifth at 45/1?  That sounds like value to me so I would take the extra place and even if I only thought it was fair value I would take it because the extra place reduces my variance.  Does that make sense?

Thanks reds, the NBA stuff defo does, hoped there'd be a poker style 'just add 4% per out on the flop' style method. Thanks to Doobs for subsequent horse answer too, have moved Q to maths thread as per tikay's request. Thanks for taking the time to explain, gonna copy n paste to keep, look forward to a pint or two in Notts if you're with argueboy, we drank the bar dry last time lol

I am gonna reread this thread but if it hasn't been covered, this is what I posted on TfT:

"Red/Argue....how do u decide what's bes, 10/11 at one total or evens at a point higher or whatever. Is there proper maths behind it or is it a feel thing? Same for if say we can back a horse at 16/1 ew with 4 places or 14/1 ew with 5 places (or whatever).

Is that a question best asked on the maths thread?"

Also wanted to add, quite often I look at basketball handicaps, one firm will be 10/11 +6.5, another evens +7, another 8/11 +10 etc etc

Red/Argue....how do u decide what's bes, 10/11 at one total or evens at a point higher or whatever. Is there proper maths behind it or is it a feel thing? Same for if say we can back a horse at 16/1 ew with 4 places or 14/1 ew with 5 places (or whatever).

Is that a question best asked on the maths thread?

An interest statistic for todays NBA match that is on BT Sport.

Its the Mavs vs Spurs. Series is tied at 2-2. Mavs won the last match with a buzzer beater by Vince Carter 1.7 seconds before the end of the match.

Last two matches saw high scores. 205 and 217 points. The last 6 out of 7 matches the Mavs played at home went over the point spread. In the last 4 matches they have been 217.2 points scored (mean value).

The line for tonight is at 203.

Thoughts from the NBA experts?

Correction to your post.  This is game 4 and Dallas are at home and 2-1 up in the series.  Whilst not being an expert at all in nba totals it's hard to imagine the spurs being much worse than they have been offensively for the rest of this series.  The total does seem low to me

Yeh I don't bet totals either but if I was setting a line I'd certainly be closer to 209, certainly wouldn't wanna take a bet on the unders.

Can't help but feel we missed a bet on the Clippers getting blown out last night. Rather than prepare for the game they've had a load of team meetings and had to fend off questions, as well as deal with how they feel and whether they're gonna strike etc after their white team owner was apparently recorded making pretty disgusting racist comments, asking his gf not to bring black people to his games (including Magic Johnson) and if she's gonna use Instagram and other social media, to not post pics of her with black people.

For a black coach and a majority black squad this must be pretty galling, even down to picking up their pay cheques. The owner has been compared to a slave master.

This hasn't gone away tho, the Clips made a silent protest last night, wearing their warm up gear inside out (to not show the Clippers name) and wearing black arm bands/wrist bands. The league is gonna make announcements this week on this guy Sterling, so the story won't go away. They play again on Tuesday in LA with the series tied at 2-2. Is there a bet in there? Oppose the Clippers?