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31  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Pre-Flop decision - Fold / Sigh Call on: August 31, 2012, 11:44:08 AM
I'm a little suprised that, so far, people think that it's an easy call.
It may be just me and my nitty tendancies, but i really dont mind a fold here.
We are way ahead of the first shovers range, but, i'm not sure that we can say the same for the open 4 bet shover.
We have to beat both villian's hands to make a profit here and i dont think that JJ is that likely to do so. So, it's a FOLD for me.
32  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Nit shoves into big draw, can we call? on: August 31, 2012, 11:18:26 AM
I would say that villian's likely range is KQ,   ,   ,   ,   ,  plus a very slight chance of K5ss.
I think that, all things, considered, villian is more likely than not to be jamming with either two pairs or a flush draw/top pair combo.
Sometimes he will show up with the bare flush draw but i dont think that you need to risk 2/3 of your stack to find out if this is one of them.

33  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Sunday 500. TT awkward spot vs Strong opening range. on: August 22, 2012, 02:59:21 PM
Whatever the rights or wrongs of the various opposing views, i think that it's been a really informative and helpful thread. When some of the experienced tournament players beg to differ in spots like these it just shows what a difficult game poker is.
 Anyway, results speak much louder than words. So, a massive Well Played from me to Stato.
34  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Pocket tens on the button. Is this ok? on: August 21, 2012, 11:14:17 PM
Villian did indeed have pocket kings, although villian's bet sizes seemed to vary quite randomly in previous hands.
35  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Flopped NFD in multiway pot on: August 21, 2012, 11:08:30 PM
Villian had A2o for the rivered full house.
36  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Sunday 500. TT awkward spot vs Strong opening range. on: August 20, 2012, 07:03:56 PM
I agree that gameflop would be pretty important.



I think his opening range is gona be like 88+ ATs+ AQo+ KQs (hes opened UTG off 20bigs, gota be pretty strong right, player dependant obv this might be a little tighter/wider than some but looks like a fair range)

I think his 4b jamming range is gona be TT+ AK, stove how well TT does vs that range.



I'm just theorising again ,but, even with these tight ranges, it would still be mathematically correct to 3 bet call (assuming that villian does not flat hero's 3 bet) as villian would be folding to the 3 bet almost 50% of the time and hero would win just over 34% of the time (of the 50.72% that the hand goes to showdown), making  the 3 bet call +EV, all be it a very marginal one
37  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Flopped set facing river shove on: August 20, 2012, 11:08:49 AM
I think that you have to try and ignore the fact that you have a flopped set, because, on this board, you are pretty much only beating a bluff.
I think that villian will show up with  or similar often enough to make this a FOLD.
38  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Sunday 500. TT awkward spot vs Strong opening range. on: August 20, 2012, 10:50:23 AM
I think it has to be a choice between folding and 3 bet calling.
I haven't played at these stakes so i'm purely speculating.
I would say that, the tighter that you perceive villian's opening range to be, the more you should be inclined to fold. Do you have any info/stats?
If you think that he's raising 10% and 4 betting 5%, then i would say it's definitely a 3 bet call.
I think it's pretty close, and very much villian dependent, but, unless he has a very tight opening range, it's a 3 bet call for me.
Good one Stato.
39  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Ept barca day 1 on: August 19, 2012, 12:37:32 PM
My thoughts: Could the 'seeming angry' be a fake tell. ie, wants you to think he has a made hand when he is actually drawing.
I would expect him to be 3 betting pre with jj or kk and probably AQs+ too.
To me, the only hand that makes any sense for villian, which actually beats you, is or the nut flush.
I would struggle to fold here, but i do think that a FOLD is the correct choice.
 I think the nut flush certainly can't be ruled out. I guess a lot depends on your reads of villian. Although he seems weird, would he really be jamming into a flushing board with a not top set, against a player who's hand seems to be unde-repped (ie could have a flush draw).
As villian has position here, surely here would just check behind with most of his range of decent, but not nut, made hands?
If he was so eager to 5-bet the flop, could he really show up with a bluff on the river? I personally dont think so.
40  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Flopped NFD in multiway pot on: August 19, 2012, 10:52:53 AM
How many paid?
Not sure exactly how many paid, but im already in the money. The big prizes are on the final table.
Thanks for the replies so far, really helpful.
41  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Flopped NFD in multiway pot on: August 18, 2012, 12:36:19 PM
Playing an $11.0 online comp on PokerStars
7727 runners
I currently have about the average stack of the 236 players remaining
Due to table moves, i have very little history with villian, but, of the 31 hands that we have been on the table, he has been quite active (29/10)
I decided to lead out on the flop, my thinking being that, as it is multiway, i will probably get some action, so i will build the pot for if i do hit my nut flush draw, whilst hopefully disguising the strentgh of my hand. I'm planning on going all in if i get re-raised on the flop.
I would appreciate any feedback on how i played the hand up to the river, whether my thinking regarding my line on the flop is flawed or not, and finally, how should i proceed  on the river.

PokerStars Hand #84779894567: Tournament #612010493, $10+$1 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XXV (1400/2800) - 2012/08/15 23:40:08 WET [2012/08/15 18:40:08 ET]
Table '612010493 190' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: Niles. (70442 in chips)
Seat 2: luxy88malo (205880 in chips)
Seat 3: Compromat013 (55346 in chips)
Seat 4: MuggsyB (35576 in chips)
Seat 5: inkycan (157153 in chips)
Seat 6: stipa2211 (144884 in chips)
Seat 7: taebo25 (175922 in chips)
Seat 8: the rage (83785 in chips)
Seat 9: Tommy C 06 (115941 in chips)
Niles.: posts the ante 350
luxy88malo: posts the ante 350
Compromat013: posts the ante 350
MuggsyB: posts the ante 350
inkycan: posts the ante 350
stipa2211: posts the ante 350
taebo25: posts the ante 350
the rage: posts the ante 350
Tommy C 06: posts the ante 350
the rage: posts small blind 1400
Tommy C 06: posts big blind 2800
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to the rage [ ]
Niles.: folds
luxy88malo: folds
Compromat013: folds
MuggsyB: folds
inkycan: calls 2800
stipa2211: folds
taebo25: calls 2800
the rage: calls 1400
Tommy C 06: checks
*** FLOP *** [ three diamonds ]
the rage: bets 7175
Tommy C 06: folds
inkycan: calls 7175
taebo25: folds
*** TURN *** [ three diamonds ] [As]
the rage: checks
inkycan: bets 8400
the rage: calls 8400
*** RIVER *** [ three diamonds As] [Two Diamonds]
inkycan: bets 16000
the rage??
42  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Basic MTT spots- A PHA diary on: August 17, 2012, 05:00:34 PM
I would assume that villian is not planning on folding.
If villian's prevoius raises have not been of a similar size i see no reason to put any more chips in.
It's a FOLD for me.
43  Poker Forums / Live Tournament Staking / Re: EPT Barcelona Main + Sides on: August 15, 2012, 11:15:52 AM
Nearly missed yours Rupert. Best of Luck to you too. May the best Brit win. 
44  Poker Forums / Live Tournament Staking / Re: nigdawg ept barcelona hr + sides on: August 15, 2012, 11:13:28 AM
  Good Luck to you too Nigdawg. Lets have a couple of Brits heads up on the FT.
45  Poker Forums / Live Tournament Staking / Re: Pleno1 EPT/ESPT Barcelona on: August 15, 2012, 11:01:37 AM
  Pleno. Smash it up   
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