92
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Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: close too bubble hand
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on: July 12, 2012, 12:52:12 PM
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Bit of a cooler if you lose this one, i reckon.
i post hands i win and lose for analysis just to check my lines as i know my A game isnt standard anymore just trying to improve i actually won this one Cheers Ironside, i appreciate your posting them. When i said a bit of a cooler if you lose, it wasn't meant as any type of criticism. I just felt that our main objective should be to get them all in there as your only dasnger, other than a set which boated up, was the flopped flush or the getting there. GG. NH. WP.
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93
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Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: close too bubble hand
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on: July 12, 2012, 12:37:49 PM
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I'm going to say... WP Ironside. I like the way that you played this hand, Although i think with you current stack/blind ratio i would personally have just jammed pre-flop. I thought about Pleno's suggestion to check back the flop, but i prefer your line. I think that betting the flop gives villian the chance to just jam any decent flush draw such as , or worse. (lol if that gets there!) I think that betting gives you the maximum chance to get all of the chips in with, what is, a very pretty hand. Bit of a cooler if you lose this one, i reckon. j10ss wouldnt be a fd, DUCY Sorry Pleno, silly me. He would prob jam the bare or though. Always going in here anyway. All good practice (i should say that i was just testing, to see if anyonewould bite, but i know you wont believe me)
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94
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Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: another bubble hand
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on: July 12, 2012, 08:24:18 AM
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I think that with your stack size, and at this point in the tournament, you dont really want to be playing any hands that you are not prepared to go all the way with pre-flop. I think that you should just FOLD pre flop. As played, i would go for a check-raise all-in on the flop. Having said that, one of my biggest problems / leaks seems to be over playing flush draws, so i would be interested to hear what others think of my suggestion. I do think that the flop is good enogh to be wanting to get them all in with, and, even though you are on the bubble, you really want to be shooting for where the big money is, ie-top 5 at least.
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95
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Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: close too bubble hand
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on: July 12, 2012, 08:08:56 AM
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I'm going to say... WP Ironside. I like the way that you played this hand, Although i think with you current stack/blind ratio i would personally have just jammed pre-flop. I thought about Pleno's suggestion to check back the flop, but i prefer your line. I think that betting the flop gives villian the chance to just jam any decent flush draw such as , or worse. (lol if that gets there!) I think that betting gives you the maximum chance to get all of the chips in with, what is, a very pretty hand. Bit of a cooler if you lose this one, i reckon.
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97
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Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Too light?
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on: July 09, 2012, 06:55:49 PM
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My first thought was that shoving with pocket fives UTG, nine handed was just a bit too risky, although, the soon to increase blind levels make it a very difficult spot. It almost seems like you're damned if you do and damned if you dont. By my calculations, based on a calling range for all 8 villians of 99+ Hero (Matt Evilpie) Will win without showdown 76.44% of the time win at showdown 4.55% of the time lose at showdown 19.01% of the time This gives an expected value of shoving of +23609 chips (1bb) My calculations ignore the showdowns against two high cards, which are pretty much a flip anyway. If villians lower their calling ranges, from 99+, AJ+, it would make it even closer. Although i know the outcome, i wouldn't criticise folding or shoving. All things considered its a very close call IMO. Unlucky Matt-Very Well Played.
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99
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Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Strange Spot in Warm Up
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on: July 09, 2012, 08:38:06 AM
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My thinking is that if he limped with aces he would have probably bet the flop and / or raised the turn. I would expect him to call the river with 87 or similar. (which you are chopping with). I wouldn't rule out him having the flopped flush, especially the ace high one. I would say he most likely has 98 suited. In my opinion, a river bluff from villian just doesn't add up with the way he's played the rest of the hand. So it's a fold for me too.
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101
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Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: JJ- Deep in big 11, prob 50p
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on: July 08, 2012, 11:57:21 AM
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It's by no means an easy decision either way, in my opinion. You've made a small raise from middle position and then you are faced with a very large three bet from the small blind. How frequently are people three betting light in this scenario? I would say, probably not very often. Villian might have interpreted your raise as you trying to isolate the limper cheaply but he could just as easily be veiwing your raise as indicating a very strong hand. I dont beleive your jacks are in particularly great shape against villian's calling range and i dont think he's folding often enough (if at all) to make jamming 36bb a wise move. So, it's FOLD and wait for better spots for me.
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103
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Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: BvB Super50 Turbo spot
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on: July 07, 2012, 12:46:33 PM
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From what you have said, villian will be shoving with a minimum of the top 30% of hands, but may well be shoving as loosely as any two cards. I'm going for a range of 66+, A7s+, K9s+, Q9s+, JTs, A9o+, KJo+. (15% approx) I may well be way too tight here, particularly with the lower pairs and raggy aces, but, i'm thinking that by ditching these we are less likely to be dominated, and are usually flipping at best with them anyway. Also, although we are in the danger zone, we will probably get decent opportunities to get our stack in with some fold equity in subsequent hands. On top of that, we are not too far from the min cash, which although not massive, is still a factor to consider before calling off our stack. Very good question though, certainly the type that i need to learn from.
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