Very sad news. Dave was one of the good guys.

 Hello everyone,

 Just thought I'd pop in to say happy birthday. It definitely seemed like a good idea for a thread four years ago but it is fairly amazing that it's lasted so long. Sorry I don't contribute anymore but I decided a long time ago that life is too short for haters and luckily for you I wasn't here last year when I was betting a lot of losers.

 I will say that I learned a lot along the way and that when Fred works it's a really good thing...if you ask any arber they will tell you they win from bookmakers and lose to Betfair. That tells you all you need to know about the value of ones guy's opinion when pitched against the opinion of a large bunch of the smartest punters in the country. If this place remains a group of smart punters then everyone will win.

 If I may suggest a bet I will. It's a very rare football suggestion from me. Sadly you'll have to figure out why it's a good bet as I'm just rushing out to play poker.


 West Ham at Liverpool in the FA Cup on Saturday is a great bet. Suggest £50 at 4/1 with Baldy, Unfair Sportsbook, the horrors in Gib and the Irish idiots.

 Wish you all well and rest assured that when you are greening-up, talking about greening-up or refusing to bet +ev bets just because they are multiples I am being cross, even if I haven't even read that you are doing that.

nc

 The Camel fills our screen again. 7.54 left in the 3rd. The camera obviously loves him. Bloke two rows back looks a little like Flushy (it isn't I think).

 Good start for either. Best of luck.

 I don't hate them. They did a good job of holding on to the ball in three games vs Denver last year. I just think betting under is a better way of getting money from that view. All three games between these two last year went under higher numbers than this but San Diego had a worse defence. If I had a free bet on a side I'd take the Chargers.

 I'm on Simon. My main bet in the race is Cubanita but I think, even at the current 10/1 both are very fair each-way. I am against Silk Sari on this ground, think Tasaday will struggle to stay, We'll go Walking obviously not good enough  and it's possible that Seal of Approval comes back to form on the ground but also quite likely she has regressed. Albasharah comes out pretty quickly and must be a doubt about her staying. Think each-way is pretty fair.

I'm against the front three in the 1st. I think Leading Light is a massive doubt on the ground, Forgotten Rules is a massive win or come nowhere and Estimate is not as good as she was, can throw in a bad one, has temperament issues and must be a doubt on the ground.

 Pallasator is one that gets wound up at the start, doesn't settle and really needs to improve, Marzocco is held and had been deserted by Buick, Flying Officer is Ok but has a lot to find.

 I am going to bet Biographer, just waiting for a 28/1 1/4 firm who will lay a bet. Stable come back into form after a tough year, the horse loves the ground. I have backed Whiplash Willie, stable in form, loves the ground bit unlucky/poor ride (delete as applicable) last time and Big Orange progressive 3-year old, has really grown since the Queen's Vase here and should be Ok on the ground. That would be my main bet.

 Planning to win money, happy to bet three.

 I can see a case for Fort Bastion Tal. A very high or very low draw is probably better than a middle draw, the horse has run well here, it stays 1m and although it ran poorly with the 1st time blinkers and in it's last run I would say that the move to the amazing David O'Meara was a bit irrelevant last time as he only had it about ten days from Ruth Carr. Now it's been with him a little longer, it seems a biggish price but there is a doubt on the ground.

 One of six or seven I could bet but definitely would rather be with than against.

American Hope is now a non-runner and we are down to 15.

 I know you guys joke about it but there was no rain on Thursday night at Ascot and the going got slower than the advanced going description. In a world where we are short of water what possible reason could they have for watering good ground in October with rain forecast?

 Calling it Good (good/firm in places) this morning just takes the piss out of punters.

 Thought you were giving Adz the bum's rush.

 I like that one Adz. Think he'll like the rain and he's been pretty unlucky at times. I do think the race will fall below 16 runners though so I won't be placing any ew bets in the race today.

 Almargo is out of the 3.50. Blaine and Redvers will probably come out. Will be soft there. Certainly a chance that both of our two come out. Rain is bad for Muthmir in the 2.05, makes this race a great each-way heat. Steps and Justice Day won't mind any rain.

Doobs and I must have some sort of telepathy going. Bit spooky. I'd have happily taken 16/1 and 33/1 those two.

 By the way, Ascot watered the other day, even though I make it October and it wasn't even good/firm. Yesterday it rode on the soft side of good according to the midget crooks and today it's pissing it down in the West country and heading across the country. Redcar is also good and just good to firm in places because they watered too. Now they are expecting rain.

 So all week we've had shit racing with barely 8 runners in any races at all and now the best day of the week has arrived and the racing will be run and false ground.

 I guess the 4.50 will have a few non-runners, hopefully not our two.

 This is a conspiracy between the BHA and the big bookmakers to boost the levy and I think it's disgraceful.

Feels like a while since I put a horse tip on here. I had two bets today. I've had enough on them and I think, although the prices have shortened a little, that they are both decent bets.

 On Saturday at Ascot it's the Totepool Challenge...an apparently impossible handicap where some firm will go 1/4 first 9 offer the worst price on oddschecker every runner and then tell everyone who goes in a shop to have a tenner each-way that it's win-only.

 The reason it's a great race to have a bet is that Ascot attempt to protect the ground for Champion's Day by narrowing the straight course and keeping the safety limit to 18. 48-hour decs mean they'll be 18 down to run tomorrow morning and plenty of time for non-runners, especially if it rains/doesn't rain enough. I guess we'll end up with 14 or 15 runners and if we bet now we are getting FOUR places and 8/1 the field. There are only four horses less than 14/1 so pretty much anytime we get one that actually runs we've had a value bet.

 I've backed Highland Acclaim from the outstanding O'Meara stable at 12/1. I would have been happy taking 8/1 and I could easily see this being 6/1 or less on the off. Stable in form, horse loves Ascot, unlucky in the Ayr Gold Cup, step up in trip should suit.

 The other one I bet is American Hero. Bit unlucky when beaten at Ascot earlier in the year, he was beaten at 1/100 in running. His other best run was here too and he'll like the drop back to 7f. I backed this one at 10/1. He was tipped earlier this week at 14/1 by Hugh Taylor long before I remembered how great this race is for each-way betting. I still think he'll be 7/1 or less on Saturday and the place part is so solid.

 You can get 10/1 and 9/1 these two. I would happily take 9/1 and 8/1. I'd have more on Highland Acclaim.

 If anyone has any other horses in the race that they see as a certain runner you could easily bet five or six each-way and be doing the right thing.

 You have until 10am tomorrow to bet and then they'll reform the market. From then on it becomes money back on non-runners but you are facing the prospects of Rule 4 and the change in place terms to 123.

 I think they are probably right, it had changed and you were given the bigger price in error. They do piss me off with the use of "palp" though. Palpable means easily perceptible and clearly tangible. The rule is in place, very reasonably, to stop collusion between employees of the bookies and the customers, that would make the running of the business impossible and to absolve the firms from the responsibility for the major errors of their imbecilic staff. Sadly the PR/middle management/customer services people jump to use the rule whenever it suits them in all sorts of situations.

 I think you were laid a price you shouldn't have been in error and they could pay you out at the "correct" price or they could pay you at 7/1 as a gesture but to start getting arsey and quoting the palpable error rule really gets my goat.