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1  Poker Forums / The Rail / Re: THE WSOP 2014 Fantasy League - (FREE entry) on: June 10, 2014, 07:00:31 AM
Hey

Sub Kravchenko out for Bertrand Grospellier.

Thanks.
2  Poker Forums / The Rail / Re: THE WSOP 2014 Fantasy League - (FREE entry) on: May 25, 2014, 02:45:42 PM
Thanks for running this.


Captain: Daniel Negreanu

2013 ITM More than 5 times: Scott Seiver

Brits: Stephen Chidwick

WSOP POTY Top 10s 2012-13: Daniel Negreanu

High Stakes: Phil Ivey

Ladies: Vanessa Selbst

Eurozoners: Alex Kravchenko

WildCard 1: Phil Hellmuth

Wild Card 2: Erik Seidel
3  Poker Forums / Diaries and Blogs / Re: From 2 wheels to 2 cards on: December 27, 2013, 10:03:44 AM
Hey Liam,

Thanks a lot for doing this, it has made for interesting reading so far and I hope that this allows you to have a focus to return to if you find yourself slipping.

Keep up the good work and I hope to see you at DTD this week.  Please keep the Fantasy Football updates coming too!

Take care and run well.
4  Poker Forums / The Rail / Re: DTD Mini Deepstack £100, £50,000 GTD 28 Aug-1st Sept on: June 14, 2013, 12:10:52 PM
Am I thinking this through the right way ?

To merge a stack you obv already need a stack, so the chances of doing so are 1 in 10.
Saying its a 1000-1 shot is wrong ?

Anyone who successfully merges is essentially putting an extra £400 in the prize pool.
The buyin + 1 min cash rule.

Get merging !


For easy maths...assume there was 100 runners every day and 10 % made it through from Day 1( 10 players ) then that would be a genuine 1 in 10 or a 9-1 chance

If the same number made it through the next day (from 100 runners) and the same  player was lucky enough to be in that 10 then his odds  of merging his stack would be 99-1 

If the same number made it through to the next day and the same player was luck enough to make it  yet again then the odds would be 999-1  etc etc

Variables in the odds will occur when this isnt an exact 10%  (ie 101 to 109 runners )

So in answer to your question 3 merged stacks will be approx 1000 -1  (unless there are any other factors)



These maths only work if all players are of *equal* skill level.  This is not the case at all. 

I don't think anyone thinks all poker players are equal either in ability or deepness of pocket. What edge do you think a better player needs to be +EV to try and get two or three (or more!) stacks through to Day 2?


I think they would have to have an "insane" edge tbh.

Quantifying edges at a level where each player is not world class is just too difficult.  Barely any player is reasonable in their assessment of themselves and others, and then the perceived skill gap between themselves and others.

I was merely pointing out that the formula provided is slightly inaccurate and there are more variables to take into account.  I would personally be more concerned with the ability for colluding teams to generate monster stacks, repeatedly.

I like the idea of not punishing people for playing more than one Day 1.  I am not sure that merging has any positive benefits over "best score goes through", where the negatives are less.

Can you show your workings out that prove a 400% ROI is needed for merging in two single, independent events that only are linked by a score that is joined at the end? I would reason that if a player has a 30% ROI in these events, then merging is a distinct possibility, as this player will be more profitable than the rest of the players in the tournament.
5  Poker Forums / The Rail / Re: DTD Mini Deepstack £100, £50,000 GTD 28 Aug-1st Sept on: June 14, 2013, 10:45:01 AM
Am I thinking this through the right way ?

To merge a stack you obv already need a stack, so the chances of doing so are 1 in 10.
Saying its a 1000-1 shot is wrong ?

Anyone who successfully merges is essentially putting an extra £400 in the prize pool.
The buyin + 1 min cash rule.

Get merging !


For easy maths...assume there was 100 runners every day and 10 % made it through from Day 1( 10 players ) then that would be a genuine 1 in 10 or a 9-1 chance

If the same number made it through the next day (from 100 runners) and the same  player was lucky enough to be in that 10 then his odds  of merging his stack would be 99-1 

If the same number made it through to the next day and the same player was luck enough to make it  yet again then the odds would be 999-1  etc etc

Variables in the odds will occur when this isnt an exact 10%  (ie 101 to 109 runners )

So in answer to your question 3 merged stacks will be approx 1000 -1  (unless there are any other factors)



These maths only work if all players are of *equal* skill level.  This is not the case at all. 
6  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Fold AQ to utg min from 18bbs? on: June 11, 2013, 12:29:49 PM
Hey Alex,

100% of my volume is on Winnamax and the notes and reads I have on this specific player would cause me to muck without even thinking about it.  She is super nitty and she is intelligent too.  She is not opening enough with hands in her range that give you equity compared to the average player in this event.  You will find many better spots as the structure of the event is far superior to any other weekly event on the site. 

Of course, this may all change if you can win an "I busted a pro" T-Shirt........
7  Poker Forums / Live Tournament Updates / Re: ISPT Wembley Day 5 on: June 04, 2013, 05:51:35 PM

Awesome.

"Baller said, GAME ON!"
8  Poker Forums / Live Tournament Updates / Re: ISPT Wembley Day 5 on: June 04, 2013, 05:34:50 PM
Bad for Linton and the short stack really! Think I'd play on in both their spots.

How is locking up more than second with 200k to play for bad?



The money amounts are all relative to personal circumstance, but the way you are looking at it is kinda skewed as it is a non-traditional pay structure, so for the Super Tuesday, sure it makes more sense, but for this event, each player that is eliminated gives such a boost to earnings that people will ladder, meaning Pete should not deal and apply the pressure.  Of course it is easier to think like this when typing in your boxers whilst watching last weeks "Made in Chelsea" than in the heat of the battle.  But a deal can be done a lot later, with a lot more money earned.
9  Poker Forums / Live Tournament Updates / Re: ISPT Wembley Day 5 on: June 04, 2013, 05:18:08 PM
Are railers allowed to chant at Wembley?

You gonna be there JonnyC?

Very tempted, was planning on going tonight but have a business meeting that I can not defer.  Are you about?  I would like to rail Pete if he makes the "June 6".
10  Poker Forums / Live Tournament Updates / Re: ISPT Wembley Day 5 on: June 04, 2013, 04:43:02 PM
Are railers allowed to chant at Wembley?
11  Poker Forums / Live Tournament Updates / Re: ISPT Wembley Day 5 on: June 04, 2013, 03:54:17 PM
depending on who makes the final 9 having two monster stacks makes it MORE likely there will be a deal imo.

It depends on what deals are allowed, can only see the big stacks pushing for a chip chop.  I wonder if the "Only ICM deal" is in place........
12  Poker Forums / Live Tournament Updates / Re: ISPT Wembley Day 5 on: June 04, 2013, 01:37:42 PM
Awesome work Tight, making many an afternoon work session pass by fast.

Are you able to confirm if there will be a stream at any point today?  Will it occur once they are down to nine?  It would be amazing if this would happen.

Thanks,

Jonny C
13  Poker Forums / Live Tournament Updates / Re: ISPT Wembley Day 5 on: June 04, 2013, 01:27:24 PM
No way this goes 5 handed with out a deal imo!

Love the idea of someone refusing but I just cant see it happening.

Would love Leigh to be the one who says no all the way until he wins.....

but

Bless PLinton!





Yo Stu!

I don't see Linton dealing unless its three or two way and involves Nick or Leon.  There is just FAR too much leverage from not dealing for him to even try.

Anyone offering any odds on winner/person who wins most money?


Afternoon almighty Ginger One.

I know technically he shouldn't be dealing and 'Bless PLinton' is the one who would love to apply that pressure but in reality I just cant see any of them not wanting to flatten the pay structure when 5/6 handed. You could lock up an extra 50k per place and still leave it top heavy.

Unless I have missed something no one left is in a position to be burning 50k notes?
I can not think of a better time to employ the no deal strategy, the money is just too much for most of the people who are left, as soon as they think they can get a deal and it is turned down, those people start to play like fools.  It happens so often in the online tournament deals that I facilitate on a regular basis.   This is likely to be the biggest jumps in history for most of these players.  Dealing less than 4 handed is burning money if you are +EV or experienced.  If the last four players are of equal skill, then I can see a deal at that point.

In fact the best strategy might be to let people believe that you will entertain a deal, but not at that precise moment in time. It may well cause the weaker players to freeze up, in anticipation of said deal, which won't happen.

Stu, I am back in Notts for a week or so from the 13th, NANDOS???

FYQ

I know all of that, just think there has to be a point for even the most experienced when the money gets too much in such a strange situation.

I was planning a night at DTD on the 14th if you fancy Nandinos before that?

Always nice to arrange a night out in the middle of an update thread.

It's a man date.
14  Poker Forums / Live Tournament Updates / Re: ISPT Wembley Day 5 on: June 04, 2013, 01:22:17 PM
No way this goes 5 handed with out a deal imo!

Love the idea of someone refusing but I just cant see it happening.

Would love Leigh to be the one who says no all the way until he wins.....

but

Bless PLinton!

I can not think of a better time to employ the no deal strategy, the money is just too much for most of the people who are left, as soon as they think they can get a deal and it is turned down, those people start to play like fools.  It happens so often in the online tournament deals that I facilitate on a regular basis.   This is likely to be the biggest jumps in history for most of these players.  Dealing less than 4 handed is burning money if you are +EV or experienced.  If the last four players are of equal skill, then I can see a deal at that point.

In fact the best strategy might be to let people believe that you will entertain a deal, but not at that precise moment in time. It may well cause the weaker players to freeze up, in anticipation of said deal, which won't happen.

Stu, I am back in Notts for a week or so from the 13th, NANDOS???



Yo Stu!

I don't see Linton dealing unless its three or two way and involves Nick or Leon.  There is just FAR too much leverage from not dealing for him to even try.

Anyone offering any odds on winner/person who wins most money?


Afternoon almighty Ginger One.

I know technically he shouldn't be dealing and 'Bless PLinton' is the one who would love to apply that pressure but in reality I just cant see any of them not wanting to flatten the pay structure when 5/6 handed. You could lock up an extra 50k per place and still leave it top heavy.

Unless I have missed something no one left is in a position to be burning 50k notes?
15  Poker Forums / Live Tournament Updates / Re: ISPT Wembley Day 5 on: June 04, 2013, 01:07:45 PM
No way this goes 5 handed with out a deal imo!

Love the idea of someone refusing but I just cant see it happening.

Would love Leigh to be the one who says no all the way until he wins.....

but

Bless PLinton!



Yo Stu!

I don't see Linton dealing unless its three or two way and involves Nick or Leon.  There is just FAR too much leverage from not dealing for him to even try.

Anyone offering any odds on winner/person who wins most money?
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