Come on Pete, now is the time.

Also glglgl to Nick H and Leon!

First post since last decade!

I'm a self aware man Cos.  You did miss the degen bit where I had to flip Niel for 50e to play and won cos I picked th wrong hand, then got KK and Blatch decided to 3bet my 12e open utg and lose to KK only to get QQ next hand and donk it all off!  Blatch wasn't pleased at losing 50e!

If only you could convert your poker form in flipping then you would be untouchable in life.

I think stack size is pretty important here, how deep where the other players? I guess your stack is larger than 10k after winning two showdown pots with Aces, so if the Old Boy has 10k+ then I like the preflop call, I think it's a standard position to setmine for me. When the Villain flats behind you his stack is approx 8625, "Villain hasnt shown anything out of line and hasnt played that many pots." Feels more like JJ/TT (and sometimes AKo/99) and isn't sure what to do and wants to play a pot with position.  Old boys raise EP could be scary and with your call he could even have reasons to flat QQ here.

On the Flop I like the call, you are giving the EP raiser a chance to bet again on the turn and also giving the chance to get a third stack in the pot which may well win you a gigantic pot. On the turn the lead is mandatory I think, your flop play set this up (hopefully with the intention of getting it in on the river) and the villain shoves with no real fold equity so he ain't bluffing.  It's possible he's doing it with a hand like 78s  (depending on turn suit) where he feels a shove is better than calling this is unlikely and player dependant though.  I feel you can't really pass, if he's got then good beats, I don't think your intentions were to bet/fold when you bet so call, I think he'll show you JJ etc enough of the time (and some people could be "Tricky Bastards" with AA here!) to warrant it.
 

Yeah I can see where I went wrong there.  My bad, will wait at least 3 hours after waking before attempting math next time!

Thanks for pointing it out, will be easier to caluculate more accuratley next time.

Well stack sizes are pretty important here, it seems like you just don't have the odds to call to set-mine.  A re-raise is out of the question as you are clearly dominated or flipping vs the TAG 3bet range.  So the question is, do you want to play a three-bet pot Vs a TAG out of position where you are (generally) 7.5-1 to continue in the hand after the flop and you can hit flops that could have you drawing to one out because of the BB's flatting range.  Even if you hit the flop the strongest you might not get paid, if the TAG is could then he will be more than capable of laying down Aces to you on the Flop/Turn. It's gonna be incredibly difficult to hit a flop that gets you fully paid by both of the villains and seems -ev in the long run.  However, if I had been drinking then I would def flat and hope to flop quads.

Eight handed, in this particular situation, this must be a shove. In a $55 the average players isoing range of a 16bb stack, eight handed,  will be along the lines of 88+,AQs+,AQo+.  However, there are not many chips on your table so peoples ranges probably tighten up even more.  The average isolation range accounts for 5.6% of hands so you're not going to get called that often and when you do you still will have around 31.12% equity in the hand. Running the hand one hundred times will show a profit. Assume the sb only has called you in this situation.

(using approximations) 6% calling range/33% equity

Times we shove and opponents all fold (94*1000) = +t94000

We get called 6 times and we win twice when this happens ( 4 x -t6625) + (2 x t6375)  = -t26500 +t12750 = -t13750

Therefore we make a profit of 94000 - 13750 =80250 (per 100 shoves)
or +t802.50 per shove.

Folding is obv -t50 per hand.

Even with rough calculations you can see this is a shove. Obv it is a general outline but without definite reads on calling/isoing ranges its hard to give exact caluculations.

erm didnt mean to post that just yet, oh well..

If you assign a much tighter re-raising range to the button (22+,ATs+,KQs,QJs,AJo+,KQo)(this is generous but the players in those casino events are very liberal with thier standards in general)) then your equity drops to 18% making it a boarderline descion, as it is a live comp that choice is assisted up by your impression of the players at that moment in time based on all of the previous action you have been observing, a good read can incresase your equity as you have eliminated some of the possible holdings that would be beating you on the flop.

With the fast structure, equities outlined (through PokerStove) then this for me is a call and pray.

Thoughts?

I'm prety sure this is a call on the flop. You have already stated that you think your opponents have extremely wide ranges so there is a reasonable chance that catching one of the two overcards may be good enough to win the whole pot.  Combine this with some backdoor flush and straight possibilities then surley you have to call with 5-1 odds and the betting closed for the hand?  You have a fair bit of equity against the ranges described and the fact that the average stack is 12.5bbs (means the structure is very quick) increases the chances of your overcards being good as people will show up with silly wide ranges sometimes.  Winning this hand puts you in such a ridiculous tournament position, you can sit back and let everyone else push fold and pick your spots.
    If you assign wide ranges to both players (way narrower than ATC though as I feel this may be an overstatement for the button) ie BB ATC, Button 38.5% hands (Any Suited, Pair or Broadway combination) then on that board you have 26% equity, so passing here with 5-1 odds based on your reads is a mistake in my opion.


Of course you should just really pass pre-flop but if you feel you must