Funnily enough I backed Weisberger in that same market at lunchtime. I did laugh at the 17th in the match play being a plus. That was a first round exit haha!

 I just had a quick look at recent form - Didn't watch the match play but thought it was 64 player knockout and 17th wash deep run 😂 just looked it up - ha ha🙈

we'll take your 20ew Weisberger please

Garcia i can get 9/2 1/5 1,2,3 but will hold out to see if anyone can help with BFSB 50ew 1/4 1,2,3 5/1 or BV 9/2

can anyone?

Weisberger booked

Masters – Top  Continental Euro
 
Best prices on Oddschecker
 
John Rahm 7/2
Henrik Stenson 9/2
Sergio Garcia  5/1
Thomas Pieters 10/1
Alex Noren 16/1
Martin Kaymer 20/1
Soren Kjedson 16/1
Caberro Bello 14/1
Molinari 20/1
Weisberger 18/1
Langer 40/1
Olazabal 150/1
 
Several firms paying 3 places ¼ odds.
 
On the face of it this isn’t a great EW betting heat with 12 runners and seemingly very open contest  however I think we can cut the field down significantly.
 
We can safely rule out Olazabal, and Langer although super fit for his age will be happy if he makes the cut.  Everyone knows about Kaymers in ability to be competitive at Augusta, and despite Kjelsen playing extremely well last year on balance someone with his lack of length should struggle and I wouldn’t bet on him repeating last year’s effort.  For similar reasons Molinari can be opposed.
 
So we’re now down to credible 7 runners  and EW betting is more attractive.
 
Maybe slightly more contentious but three of the remaining players (Pieters, Noren, Rahm) although highly talented are all debutants – They are less likely be effective at their first try at the course even if Rahm is a superstar in the making  I am happy to oppose him and the other 2 for this reason.
 
So we have Stenson, Garcia, Caberro Bello and Weisberger remaining
 
Stenson is the class act but is not  in great form coming in with 2 MC’s – His Masters record is not great either never having a Top 10.  Happy to oppose.
 
The 2 I want to back are Garcia and Weisberger.
 
Not much to say about Garcia that everyone doesn’t know – He’s just very solid round here and although probably not up to winning outright he can definitely hit the top 10 which should be enough to win this market.  He’s in great form having already won this season (Dubai) and was a solid 12th in the WGC 2 starts ago.  He’s laid himself out for this by the looks of it with a light schedule and I can’t not see him coming out of the top 3 here - would be odds odd on to place In my view. Very solid.
 
At the prices I also quite like Weisberger.  He has only played twice here, coming 22nd on his debut and then followed up with a solid 34th last year. He hits it a long way which will always be an advantage round here and comes into the week in good form having 2 top 5’s on Euro tour early in the year and then more recently 17th in the match play and 23rd last week in Houston.  Sporting chance.
 
Recommend:
50ew Garcia @ 5/1
20ew Weisberger @ 18/1
(Both 3 places ¼ odds)
 
If you like these, I can help with the Weisberger bet with 364, but have had to get help myself with Garcia so can’t do anything there – (PP, BV and BFSB are 5/1 ¼)

[Settlement Day]

Settlement Day

Sorry I'm a day late, bit busy right now.

If anyone is owed by Fred for February bets, let me know please & I'll settle up.

I've settled K4Suited this morning (£40) & will reply to the M from RickBFA shortly.

Any more for any more?

Hi Tikay - You're due me 100 for the Gods Own antepost bet, I'm cool if we want to leave it until after the race though - Less than 2 weeks to go now!!

Details in the spready obv

Cheers

Think I'll settle now, in case things go a bit tits up at Cheltenham. Never been known, obv.

Anyway, it's nice to head into Cheltenham week having paid all my dues, returns (we wish) are all bonus then.

Remind me of your Bank Details please via PM, & I'll get it sorted.

Hi T_Mar,

Did I settle you up for Gods Own (£100)?

Yep you sent the week before, cheers Tikay

I was counting our money as it cruised to the 2nd last with Douvan knowhere to be seen - Still trying to work out how we drew a blank 😮

What was her name? I'm few years older than you but we went to same School

Top man - Cheers

Just send buyin and get  a beer with change 👍

Well done winners

Very very well done on special tiara. £625 win

thought gods own would give us the 1-2 on the final turn, hit one and faded sadly

Thanks Tighty and all.  Struggling to get online for spells yesterday afternoon. 

Think we are +930 odd right now.  I worked it out last night.  I think I also owe for a non runner. 

I think I have 3 today depending on prices.  These will probably be up after 10.

I think we still have Cue Card to come.  Did we get on More of That too?  I remember Adz tipping him, but it might have only been on the racig thread?  Would be good to get it over a thousand as a get well soon.

Great tipping Doobs 👍

after the 5 day decs, who do we like for the (extremely open looking) champion hurdle next week please?

something e/w at a price?

http://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival/champion-hurdle/winner

--

no one?

not an interesting looking race? or wide open?

Not a great betting race, I don't really have a strong view..  Any bets you have should be win only

Our compact Cheltenham book so far,ahead ofthe 28 races from tomorrow

gold cup   cue card   9/1   100   £50 e/w      
QM Chase   Gods Own   20/1   100   £50 e/w      
fred winter   Chameron   20/1   40 £25 e/w         
gold cup   minella rocco   25/1   32 £16 e/w         
gold cup   blaklion   50/1   30   30   V   0
gold cup   more of that   25/1   32 £16 e/w         

all futher ideas welcome, even if it means recounting train journeys to Farringdon last weekend!

Gods Own declared for QM this morning - Field of 10, no real surprises, top price 12/1 so in decent shape

IN

Sent £25 via PayPal

I love reading all the F1 stuff from Doobs & Peter, even though I don't get to back much of it as I miss it

I know nothing about F1 but enjoy both there posts as well - Enjoy anything Doobs posts as it's 99% +EV 😀

Quite a big difference between the two and their respective skill sets though.

I remember an early post on this thread by Channing I think saying that there was basically 3 ways of finding value in sports betting 

1) Inside Info
2) Doing more research than the loltraders you're betting against
3) Identifying certain market conditions Where bookies intentionally / unintentionally give up an edge - I think about this as gambling theory

I would say Peter falls into a combination of the first two - Clearly he has a very in depth level of knowledge along with elements of inside info that will allow him to be ahead of the market. Doobs is obviously knowledgeable on motorsport to a point but where he kills it is with gambling theory and being able to take advantage of market conditions - Its probably fair to say Peter doesn't have as strong a grasp on gambling theory - No offence Peter 😀

Without wanting to be controversial this kind of similar to Adzy and the horses - Great form student which allows him to be ahead of the crowd but maybe on occasions less strong on theory which is where the disagreements come from.

Beauty of the thread is we have inputs from both sides - Lethal combo! 😀

[Settlement Day]

Settlement Day

Sorry I'm a day late, bit busy right now.

If anyone is owed by Fred for February bets, let me know please & I'll settle up.

I've settled K4Suited this morning (£40) & will reply to the M from RickBFA shortly.

Any more for any more?

Hi Tikay - You're due me 100 for the Gods Own antepost bet, I'm cool if we want to leave it until after the race though - Less than 2 weeks to go now!!

Details in the spready obv

Cheers

Well done Chompy 👍

Know nothing about politics, but if Neils price is right can't we still have a (slightly smaller) bet at 4/7?

Taking a real flyer on a potential ante post bet for Cheltenham, before the Stat Pack take a closer look.

In the last 4 years Paul Nichols has really done well in the Fred Winter, two wins, 4 seconds, 1 3rd, 1 4th, 1 5th. Not bad, from 11 runners eh?!

The weights aren't out yet, but it almost feels like a bet opportunity.

He has two that take the eye at this stage. Dolos who ran ok behind the current Triumph Hurdle fav at Chepstow, without looking to be overly exerted. Clearly not a Triumph horse, but looked like it was there to get a tidy mark for this.

The real eyecatcher, however, is a horse called Chameron.

So far we have yet to see Chameron race in the UK, but he won both his races late last year in Auteuil.

I suspect Nichols feels he has a real machine, and is hoping to get a handy mark without showing his hand.

I could be well wide of the mark, but at 20-1 NRNB, if he takes his chance, once the stats boys notice him, I am sure he will go off a lot shorter than this. If he doesnt get in, or they go elsewhere, we get our money back.

Based on the Nichols M/O for this race, I would welcome others thoughts before we place a bet.

Difficult to have too much of an opinion on the horses ability but can't argue with Nichols record in the race

Anything in particular that makes you think the trainer is sweet on him?

No inside info, nothing I have read(tbh, I have won far more over the years trusting my own instincts than any inside info I have ever had, admittedly, this is all instinct and back knowledge). Just the horse profile, and the way Nichols has brought some of these French imports along for Festival success looks v familiar. If nothing else it should provide value on the day, or a back to lay oppo.

 Being able to read between lines is half the battle, not my normal sort of bet but followed you in with a small interest 👍