Taking a real flyer on a potential ante post bet for Cheltenham, before the Stat Pack take a closer look.

In the last 4 years Paul Nichols has really done well in the Fred Winter, two wins, 4 seconds, 1 3rd, 1 4th, 1 5th. Not bad, from 11 runners eh?!

The weights aren't out yet, but it almost feels like a bet opportunity.

He has two that take the eye at this stage. Dolos who ran ok behind the current Triumph Hurdle fav at Chepstow, without looking to be overly exerted. Clearly not a Triumph horse, but looked like it was there to get a tidy mark for this.

The real eyecatcher, however, is a horse called Chameron.

So far we have yet to see Chameron race in the UK, but he won both his races late last year in Auteuil.

I suspect Nichols feels he has a real machine, and is hoping to get a handy mark without showing his hand.

I could be well wide of the mark, but at 20-1 NRNB, if he takes his chance, once the stats boys notice him, I am sure he will go off a lot shorter than this. If he doesnt get in, or they go elsewhere, we get our money back.

Based on the Nichols M/O for this race, I would welcome others thoughts before we place a bet.

Difficult to have too much of an opinion on the horses ability but can't argue with Nichols record in the race

Anything in particular that makes you think the trainer is sweet on him?

QM Chase looks a good spot for an EW Antepost bet

Douvan is 1/3 Fav, Altior and Un De Seux look almost certain to run in Arkle and Ryan Air respectively.  Several of the others are also likely to run elsewhere and we likely going to be left with small field.

There are several old favourites that might run but they are either coming back from long absences, getting old or just in decline.

The only 2 solid ones look to be Fox Norton 10/1 and Gods Own 20/1.

I think the books have these the wrong way round - Fox Norton owes his position in market due to two visually impressive wins in hcap company and then a G2 race both at Cheltenham - Im not sure that form entitles him to be half the price of Gods Own here and suspect the Tizzard factor is being over valued.

He ran at the weekend finishing 2nd to Altior in 3 runner race - I know the race was all about Altior but it didn't look a good festival trial for Fox Norton and he eased in the betting slightly for this since.

Tizzard was also quoted as saying he might be more of a stayer so not impossible he will go else where as well

Gods Own on the other hand looks really solid... Ran 4th in this race last year but has won 2 G1's since at Aintree and Punchestown.. he's a proper good ground spring horse and is being saved for similar tilt at the festivals this year

He ran a decent race in the tingle creek in Dec not getting beat far on unfavourable soft ground and his trainer stated After race how pleased he was and it was his best start to a season, thought he was still improving - He said he would likely go straight to festival without a prep to avoid soft ground.

I can see this being <10/1 on the day and people talking about it being a great EW bet with a dead 8 runners and odds on jolly - 20/1 now is a fantastic price. 

We might get lucky and have less than 8 runners on the day or hit jackpot and Douvan doesn't turn up.

He is entered in the Ryan Air as well  but I don't think that's the plan but we have NRNB with 364 who are also 20-1 1/4 odds as security

This is a strong bet for me and I've got stuck in

Recommend anything up to 50EW @ 20/1 1/4 odd NRNB for Fred

Edit - If you like the bet I can help with 364

yes please

50ew booked

QM Chase looks a good spot for an EW Antepost bet

Douvan is 1/3 Fav, Altior and Un De Seux look almost certain to run in Arkle and Ryan Air respectively.  Several of the others are also likely to run elsewhere and we likely going to be left with small field.

There are several old favourites that might run but they are either coming back from long absences, getting old or just in decline.

The only 2 solid ones look to be Fox Norton 10/1 and Gods Own 20/1.

I think the books have these the wrong way round - Fox Norton owes his position in market due to two visually impressive wins in hcap company and then a G2 race both at Cheltenham - Im not sure that form entitles him to be half the price of Gods Own here and suspect the Tizzard factor is being over valued.

He ran at the weekend finishing 2nd to Altior in 3 runner race - I know the race was all about Altior but it didn't look a good festival trial for Fox Norton and he eased in the betting slightly for this since.

Tizzard was also quoted as saying he might be more of a stayer so not impossible he will go else where as well

Gods Own on the other hand looks really solid... Ran 4th in this race last year but has won 2 G1's since at Aintree and Punchestown.. he's a proper good ground spring horse and is being saved for similar tilt at the festivals this year

He ran a decent race in the tingle creek in Dec not getting beat far on unfavourable soft ground and his trainer stated After race how pleased he was and it was his best start to a season, thought he was still improving - He said he would likely go straight to festival without a prep to avoid soft ground.

I can see this being <10/1 on the day and people talking about it being a great EW bet with a dead 8 runners and odds on jolly - 20/1 now is a fantastic price.  

We might get lucky and have less than 8 runners on the day or hit jackpot and Douvan doesn't turn up.

He is entered in the Ryan Air as well  but I don't think that's the plan but we have NRNB with 364 who are also 20-1 1/4 odds as security

This is a strong bet for me and I've got stuck in

Recommend anything up to 50EW @ 20/1 1/4 odd NRNB for Fred

Edit - If you like the bet I can help with 364

BE's free >2.5  "statistical analysis" tips put this game up

They've done very well with these so far this season - obv a smallish sample

Pics of you playing in a pink tiara drinking frozen Margarita from a Statue of Liberty shaped glass and I'll donate 5% of the buyin to a charity of your choice 😄

Great OP, all the best for the comp

I also think they'll switch Yorkhill (sorry marky)

Jezki a big price on bf for CH means unlikely .. 2 in each race for JP seems most likely no?

Harry / Jezki - Stayers
Buvear / Yanworth - CH

[Hopefully we will have the beginnings of a festival ante-post book soon?]

Annie Power will miss the Cheltenham Festival after picking up a leg injury at home, Willie Mullins has revealed.


Hopefully we will have the beginnings of a festival ante-post book soon?

Pagingg Adzy, paging Adzy.

It has become pretty hard with Mullins playing his games, and that forces many others to stop committing too. 

In addition, I looked at the Cotswold last night.  Currently 11 runners, so there us a chance it goes off with less than 8 including the odds on "sure thing".  8 bookies in the list are offering quarter first two already.  All these little edges seem to be going. 

And if you do get through this and get an antepost good thing that starts at half your odds, there is a good chance you lose your account.

Betfair is no better, you just get laid at times like this.  1.01 someone got word and hoovered up all the Annie Power Cheltenham bets before the announcement.

Last week same - several books only offering 3 places 1/4 antepost for weekend hcaps  that had 18-20 runners declared at 5 day stage

Sorry state of affairs

Great shout tighty, cheers 👍

Great shout Ando Arb 👌

I haven't subscribed but heard him talking on matchbook podcast before the start saying MVG should be 1/2 poke and that he'd steamed into the 8/11 or whatever it was - Sealy that is

I know nothing about darts so forgive me - What price will Anderson be against Wright in the Semi - Assume strong odds on fav based on outright prices?

I followed the rec pre tourny but can we go in again here @ 11/4 EW 1/3 getting 10/11 in the semi? Have to give up little bit on the win

364 still offering EW

4/9 9/4 roughly the prices will be.  Cracking bet if you can get on.

Lovely, cheers

I know nothing about darts so forgive me - What price will Anderson be against Wright in the Semi - Assume strong odds on fav based on outright prices?

I followed the rec pre tourny but can we go in again here @ 11/4 EW 1/3 getting 10/11 in the semi? Have to give up little bit on the win

364 still offering EW

[Dont send any money in the post]

Ive used Craigslist before

https://liverpool.craigslist.co.uk/search/tia

Pros..you get a lot of genuine fans selling tickets & the prices can be near face value

Cons..... Its not a regulated site so you deal direct with the seller . Also you get a lot of dealers on there but they are obligated to say so

My advice...Dont send any money in the post and meet with the seller in a neutral place before the day of the match

Hope this helps

Thanks for this - Found this site last night - Exactly as you describe, lots of availability at resonable prices but no idea who I'm talking to - I'll prob just take a punt

Cheers

Nice to have my first impression of the fella so bountifully confirmed.

Out of interest, having read Silvers blog have your first impressions still been confirmed or has your perception changed at all?