Taking the shortlist down to 6 that won't be announced until the night will mean no campaigns for niche sports will have a chance to get going.
Initial thoughts are that the shortlist would be very obvious, but surely the BBC would get huge stick if there aren't at least a couple of women on it, who would then get few votes (top 2 women in the betting are Dina Asher Smith and Lizzy Yarnold).
That reduces things further to probably only 4 real runners. Current 2nd fav is Harry Kane who, from an achievement point of view, is a lol choice. Add to this that the only winner from a team sport since 2005 is Ryan Giggs, who had Man Utd fans voting for him and Kane doesn't appeal.
Next two in the betting are Alastair Cook and Lewis Hamilton - Cook obvious relying on a Giggs-style lifetime achievement award and Hamilton a weapons-grade arsehole who will win another F1 title by beating the one other car that has a comparable performance level.
Next Anthony Joshua and Tommy Fleetwood - Joshua couldn't win last year after beating Klitschko and has fought no-one this year and Fleetwood is a bit of a character, played quite well in a team event and came 2nd in US Open - hardly earth-shattering.
This leaves Geraint Thomas - Tour De France winner, Welsh and, crucially, seemingly untainted by the drugs scandal in cycling. As we've seen in previous years, it doesn't need many votes to win this and if you find 'being Welsh' a niche thing then it'll get him votes.
He is 11/8 fav and the major thing against him is that I have no idea how interesting a person he comes across when being interviewed - this is a huge thing as Mo Farah's child won him the award last year by being cute in the interview.
I had a scoot down the betting list to see if I could find a flyer at a bigger price and the one who jumps out is Tyson Fury at around 50/1. He fights Wilder two weeks before SPOTY and has the potential to give a lively interview on the night. He came 4th three years ago despite spending the night defending himself against anti-gay comments he made.
It's obviously dependent on him beating Wilder (he's 2.6 on BF to win) which would make him about 18/1 for SPOTY on the night but if he beats Wilder he'd be shorter than that so I'd make him a bet right now.