475 deaths in Italy yesterday - those who died would have been infected about 2 weeks ago and the UK is 2 weeks behind Italy in terms of number of cases, so that shows you what is coming.

This morning Westminster coroner's court started building a temporary extension to their mortuary in order to handle the expected increase in cases.

Caroline flack
Jesus

That second one is old news

Same kind of article, this time in the Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/jan/18/q-school-pdc-darts-delusions-chaos-chance-new-life-fallon-sherrock

I had a little bet on Nandy earlier in the day at 8/1 - it seems to me that Starmer certainly seems topped out and wider media exposure will not be RLB's friend.

The polling from many different polls is just saying the same. Labour is up, Tories slightly down and LD dropping significantly. It’s pretty clear to see that Labour aren’t going to be losing as many voters as you think to LD. It’s also fascinating to see Labour doing so well considering Brexit and Corbyn.

More people have registered to vote, mainly young people. There are now more younger people allowed to vote as they’ve now turned 18. Labour up in the polls. Voters seem more switched on. It’s mainly positives for remain parties.

I’m over the moon to be on over 200 Labour seats and my insane prediction is that Labour will get over 250. I’ve not been drinking, promise

I’d definitely not be happy taking that 1/3 LD in Sheffield Hallam.

Fair play to Aaron here - Labour did hold on in Sheffield Hallam by 700 votes so he got a 1/3 shot beaten.

in Blyth Valley Conservatives have turned over a 19% deficit to win from Labour in a seat that has been Labour since the war.

We're done

The pound has lost a cent against the Euro today - but then again, early indications on Brexit day from the currency markets were wrong as well

Anyone with access to the exit poll data is locked away in a room without their phones.

I’m wondering how much of the move away from the Tories is simply due to the queues of young people this morning, thinking it indicated a Labour surge, when it could just be people not fancying going to vote in the dark after work.

I want to run a small competition

Please post before polls close on Thursday to be eligible

Answer with one number, either

a) size of conservative majority or b) number of seats short of majority (and state which your answer is)

Nearest wins a £25 donation to a charity of their choice (will post screenshot)

In the event of a tie earliest guess wins

Anyway those that haven't can still have a crack at this

Put my money where your mouth is, or something like that.....

Tories one short.

As opposed to me on election night when I'll probably have 3 or 4 shorts, plus wine.

Twitter 'polls' are not polls and should be ignored.

Pollsters are well aware they poll age groups in different ratios and that's why demographic poll weighting is a thing.

Interesting thread here outlining how there could be three potential sources of polling error, and all three would overstate the Tory vote share in the polls.

https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1202678707288264709

I’ve been in the pub all night so haven’t been watching but from the commentary online I get the impression that Jo Swinson came on stage and spent 30 mins throwing kittens into a woodchipper

Watching Newsnight and the Tories have not made anyone available to have a free shot at hurling bricks through the Labour manifesto window.

They obviously saw that Barry Gardiner was on for Labour and thought they didn’t need to bother.

In the realms of "its not happening but what if..." I do sometimes think where this election would be if Starmer or Cooper or Benn or (name someone not hated by the broader populace) was LOTO

There’d be no election. The Tories wouldn’t have had the lurch to the right and driven away the moderates in the party as they know they would have needed them to fight for the centre ground.

With Corbyn as leader, they knew that any dissatisfied moderate Tory voters would only go so far as the Lib Dems so the rump of Labour/Tory marginals would be safe.

The Sheffield Hallam seat looks like one of the most interesting

2017:

Labour - 21,881
Lib Dem - 19,756
Con - 13,561

You have to fancy that’ll be a comfortable winback for the Lib Dems - a majority of only 2,000 to turn over in a seat they held for 20 years against an almost certainly topped out Labour vote and a good chunk of 13,000 Tory votes they can tap up for voters who disagree with the hard-right Tory turn but who don’t want to see Corbyn as PM.

Currently 1/3 with Ladbrokes, which I’d be taking.

It's also Jared O'Mara's seat which he won for Labour, then went independent after resigning from Labour, plus a bunch of other mini scandals that followed him around, so quite the tarnished seat for Labour. That 1/3 looks pretty good IMO.

I think LD would win it, but it's a seat that surely has a lot of new voters since 2017 considering it's a seat with plenty of new students.

But it would also have had a load of those who were students in 2017 have graduated and moved away