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1  Poker Forums / The Rail / Re: The *official* "whatever happened to?" thread on: November 23, 2020, 08:24:18 AM
FAO Camel, Rick & others who may be interested.

Kush has had more health problems, & is currently in Harefield Hospital where he expects he may have to remain for an extended period. He's bearing up well though & is bright & cheerful, & told me he hopes to be back on the blonde streets again very soon.

He sent me a PM on blonde, so if you want to wish him well personally you could try sending him a PM, or relay the message via me. 

Oh damn, thought he was well on the mend.

Hope he makes it out for Xmas, their dinner portions are not good for that!

Can thank him for getting you posting again, at least Wink

Hi guys,

I am out of hospital sooner than had been expected (today at short notice, they let me home with monitors attached), I was only in for 5 days and things went well. I’ll be back in next week but things are back to looking up again for now. It seems the immunotherapy has messed with my adrenal glands but hasn’t doesn’t significant or lasting damage to my heart. The issues should be able to be sorted with drugs and from February when the immunotherapy ends I should be back in good shape for a while.

Thanks for the kind messages👍

Glad to here you are out Kush.  All the best.  Dung
2  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The Next President of the United States on: August 04, 2020, 06:43:01 PM
Brilliant running commentary as always Mint.  Surely the best source of American political insight outside of the US.  Dung.
3  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Give me a break on: June 25, 2020, 02:27:29 PM
Did Selby just go through a mini session without scoring a point?
4  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: COVID19 on: June 04, 2020, 08:29:59 PM
Spain cooking the books?

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1268450736398098433?s=21

5  Poker Forums / The Rail / Re: Get well soon Camel. on: June 01, 2020, 06:43:46 PM
All the best Camel.
6  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: COVID19 on: May 28, 2020, 01:49:00 PM
There’s been a lot of posts here that actually belong on the politics thread.

Notwithstanding that, thank you Jon MW (& Science Wife) for providing objective, non-partisan and knowledgeable commentary. I know it’s too much to ask that some of the others follow your example; I thought you should know that there’s probably quite a few of us that appreciate your input.

Too many issues in this crisis are media-led, with subsequent commentary politically motivated. As I think you’ve already said, the time for detailed analysis and maybe leveling objective criticism, will be when we’ve got Covid under control (beaten when there’s a vaccine).

Don’t get me wrong, I think there’s a lot that with hindsight could have been done differently, but I totally reject any suggestions that a government of a different hue would be in any better shape than we are now. It’s one thing making the decisions, and another to be standing in the crowd and saying “No, you’re wrong, you dipshit”.

Quite - it's nonsensical that a poster who is highly anti Conservative and uses "dipshit" to describe his political opponents then claims he is impartial about COVID.
7  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: COVID19 on: May 10, 2020, 06:48:33 PM
tbf, this consigns the vulnerable and just scared (for want of a better word) to an undefined period of doing nothing much until vaccines etc but I think that's better than what I view as a ludicrous situation today where most people could pretty safely keep calm and carry on.

Think the problem is that most people are borderline idiots, otherwise I'd agree.

I could do another year of this, so it doesn't bother me one bit, other than not enough takeaways about.

Think there's loads of people like you Marky.and pretty sure for a reasonable number of people it's almost ideal. Aside from seeing my family and the odd visit to a restaurant or pub it's pretty perfectly suited to me too.

But it's killing the jobs of so many otherwise fit and self employed trades people as well as in other decent mid size companies I'm not sure the ends, today, justify the means. Someone has to work to pay for all the public sector jobs and delish pensions.

It definitely gets to a point where we have to take our medicine, and given that the gov said they're going to be trying to wean people off the furlough dough and get them back to work, I can't see it's long from coming.

My brother had a couple weeks off, but I reckon a fair few self-employed are already back to work. He is only working on jobs he doesn't have to deal with any customers, and using his regular labourer, a Portuguese lad that is sensible and does what he's told.


Not sure why Govt needs to "wean people off furlough".  Just announce a date for the end of the scheme.

If there isn't some kind of weaning to match the gradual build up of people actually returning to work there is going to be huge numbers of redundancies, many of which will be aligned so the furlough scheme is paying peoples notice.

They need to taper it down over the coming months gradually and introduce part time furloughing.

Seems artificial to me. Why do we now think benefits should effectively be 80% of salary?   If all these people are getting made redundant, then that is what the benefits system is for?   I don't see why Bob gets paid 80% salary when he is in reality out of work the minute furlough ends, while Dave gets his JSA just because he was unlucky enough to be out of work before COVID?

If your happy that 2m people are going to become redundant due to the virus rather than their work or their employers decisions and then let them struggle to find any kind of similar role then there's absolutely no reason to mess around weaning!

Sure, some of them should be going anyway and there will have been some good luck/bad luck situations around timing.

Personally I think softening this blow is probably a good plan.

60% July with introduction of part time furlough
40% August
Finished 31st August

Is better than just cutting it dead on the 30th June



Happy is the wrong word! That said millions lost their job after credit crisis and the current benefit system was deemed good enough for them so I don’t see why Covid redundancies gets special treatment.

Because they're not redundancies. Furlough means temporary, redundancy means your job has gone.

Redundant would be of no one was ever going to go to the pub again for example. I'm pretty sure most people will just go back to what they were doing before after it's all over

Yes obviously.  But if the furlough is just extended because it is known that the workers will be made redundant when it's over then it's just benefits dressed up by another name.  It's only furlough if the jobs exist when they go back.

Hence there is no need to "wean people off" furlough.  End it (at the right time) and you are either employed or redundant.
8  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: COVID19 on: May 10, 2020, 02:25:28 PM
tbf, this consigns the vulnerable and just scared (for want of a better word) to an undefined period of doing nothing much until vaccines etc but I think that's better than what I view as a ludicrous situation today where most people could pretty safely keep calm and carry on.

Think the problem is that most people are borderline idiots, otherwise I'd agree.

I could do another year of this, so it doesn't bother me one bit, other than not enough takeaways about.

Think there's loads of people like you Marky.and pretty sure for a reasonable number of people it's almost ideal. Aside from seeing my family and the odd visit to a restaurant or pub it's pretty perfectly suited to me too.

But it's killing the jobs of so many otherwise fit and self employed trades people as well as in other decent mid size companies I'm not sure the ends, today, justify the means. Someone has to work to pay for all the public sector jobs and delish pensions.

It definitely gets to a point where we have to take our medicine, and given that the gov said they're going to be trying to wean people off the furlough dough and get them back to work, I can't see it's long from coming.

My brother had a couple weeks off, but I reckon a fair few self-employed are already back to work. He is only working on jobs he doesn't have to deal with any customers, and using his regular labourer, a Portuguese lad that is sensible and does what he's told.


Not sure why Govt needs to "wean people off furlough".  Just announce a date for the end of the scheme.

If there isn't some kind of weaning to match the gradual build up of people actually returning to work there is going to be huge numbers of redundancies, many of which will be aligned so the furlough scheme is paying peoples notice.

They need to taper it down over the coming months gradually and introduce part time furloughing.

Seems artificial to me. Why do we now think benefits should effectively be 80% of salary?   If all these people are getting made redundant, then that is what the benefits system is for?   I don't see why Bob gets paid 80% salary when he is in reality out of work the minute furlough ends, while Dave gets his JSA just because he was unlucky enough to be out of work before COVID?

If your happy that 2m people are going to become redundant due to the virus rather than their work or their employers decisions and then let them struggle to find any kind of similar role then there's absolutely no reason to mess around weaning!

Sure, some of them should be going anyway and there will have been some good luck/bad luck situations around timing.

Personally I think softening this blow is probably a good plan.

60% July with introduction of part time furlough
40% August
Finished 31st August

Is better than just cutting it dead on the 30th June



Happy is the wrong word! That said millions lost their job after credit crisis and the current benefit system was deemed good enough for them so I don’t see why Covid redundancies gets special treatment.
9  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: COVID19 on: May 10, 2020, 10:22:29 AM
tbf, this consigns the vulnerable and just scared (for want of a better word) to an undefined period of doing nothing much until vaccines etc but I think that's better than what I view as a ludicrous situation today where most people could pretty safely keep calm and carry on.

Think the problem is that most people are borderline idiots, otherwise I'd agree.

I could do another year of this, so it doesn't bother me one bit, other than not enough takeaways about.

Think there's loads of people like you Marky.and pretty sure for a reasonable number of people it's almost ideal. Aside from seeing my family and the odd visit to a restaurant or pub it's pretty perfectly suited to me too.

But it's killing the jobs of so many otherwise fit and self employed trades people as well as in other decent mid size companies I'm not sure the ends, today, justify the means. Someone has to work to pay for all the public sector jobs and delish pensions.

It definitely gets to a point where we have to take our medicine, and given that the gov said they're going to be trying to wean people off the furlough dough and get them back to work, I can't see it's long from coming.

My brother had a couple weeks off, but I reckon a fair few self-employed are already back to work. He is only working on jobs he doesn't have to deal with any customers, and using his regular labourer, a Portuguese lad that is sensible and does what he's told.


Not sure why Govt needs to "wean people off furlough".  Just announce a date for the end of the scheme.

If there isn't some kind of weaning to match the gradual build up of people actually returning to work there is going to be huge numbers of redundancies, many of which will be aligned so the furlough scheme is paying peoples notice.

They need to taper it down over the coming months gradually and introduce part time furloughing.

Seems artificial to me. Why do we now think benefits should effectively be 80% of salary?   If all these people are getting made redundant, then that is what the benefits system is for?   I don't see why Bob gets paid 80% salary when he is in reality out of work the minute furlough ends, while Dave gets his JSA just because he was unlucky enough to be out of work before COVID?
10  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: COVID19 on: May 10, 2020, 09:38:19 AM
tbf, this consigns the vulnerable and just scared (for want of a better word) to an undefined period of doing nothing much until vaccines etc but I think that's better than what I view as a ludicrous situation today where most people could pretty safely keep calm and carry on.

Think the problem is that most people are borderline idiots, otherwise I'd agree.

I could do another year of this, so it doesn't bother me one bit, other than not enough takeaways about.

Think there's loads of people like you Marky.and pretty sure for a reasonable number of people it's almost ideal. Aside from seeing my family and the odd visit to a restaurant or pub it's pretty perfectly suited to me too.

But it's killing the jobs of so many otherwise fit and self employed trades people as well as in other decent mid size companies I'm not sure the ends, today, justify the means. Someone has to work to pay for all the public sector jobs and delish pensions.

It definitely gets to a point where we have to take our medicine, and given that the gov said they're going to be trying to wean people off the furlough dough and get them back to work, I can't see it's long from coming.

My brother had a couple weeks off, but I reckon a fair few self-employed are already back to work. He is only working on jobs he doesn't have to deal with any customers, and using his regular labourer, a Portuguese lad that is sensible and does what he's told.


Not sure why Govt needs to "wean people off furlough".  Just announce a date for the end of the scheme.
11  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: COVID19 on: May 05, 2020, 08:42:01 AM
Secondly people who run businesses who claim to be out of cash in 2/3 weeks but they have mortgage free houses/second houses and other assets in ttheir own name.   If you run a business you are a punter.  When the going gets tough you can't expect or claim to be out of cash in 2/3 weeks like most of these business owners are doing?  Try remortgaging your house/other assets if you beleive in your business and stop sending the country and the government skint.   Part of having a bet in business is coping withh the downswings.  Imagine if everytime i had a major downswing as a pro punter i went to the government for a bail out i would be laughed out of town.   Why are these asset rich cash poor guessers any different?  Convert your assets into cash or sell up.  The government isn't there to bail out lol businesses that can'tt last 3 months without a loan.  If your business can't last 3 months cash wise you don't really have a business long term.

You caan't have it both ways.  You want the security of having a wage in the bad times but all the profits and glory in the good times it seems to most of these lol businessmen.  Branson included.

Small business isn’t getting a bail out as far as I know?   If you are sole MD then you take most salary via dividends which isn’t covered.  You could furlough yourself and get the small PAYE payment but you’d need to suspend trading so it isn’t worth it?   That’s the position my Mrs is in anyway so she’s just drawing on the company cash reserves for rest of year and trying to position the Business to sprint out of lockdown.

The government has decided to bail out sole traders and big business but not smaller business owners.  It is what it is - can’t save everyone I suppose.
12  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: COVID19 on: May 04, 2020, 07:04:19 PM
Sorry for your loss Arb.
13  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: COVID19 on: April 29, 2020, 08:21:58 PM
...
Kush, Just out of interest and it’s a question asked in a friendly spirit. Do you consider that you have a bias? If so what do you think it is?

I think I’ve answered this question a ton of times. I think austerity, Brexit and the handling of this crisis are catastrophic failures of government. I am biased toward anything that would lead to a more equitable society. Ideologically, a really moderate form of socialism is what I think would be best for the U.K., with similar levels of public investment to, for example, Germany.

In spite of this bias, probably in part due to a strong background in scientific fields, I am able to be quite objective when I need to be. Reread the thread if we want to get a feel for who was ahead of the curve at any time in terms of how this was likely to play out.

Kush - you know a bias is a prejudice right?

So if you're saying your bias is based on "I think austerity, Brexit and the handling of this crisis are catastrophic failures of government" you're saying that you don't think that's an objective opinion(?)

"I am biased toward anything that would lead to a more equitable society. Ideologically, a really moderate form of socialism is what I think would be best for the U.K., with similar levels of public investment to, for example, Germany. "

Is closer - a more realistic description might be you're biased against anything you think doesn't lead to a more equitable society - primarily anything the Tories do          :p

I guess I was simplifying the language for the purpose of responding to PP. You’re quite right to correct me. I don’t believe there is any bias in my belief that the governance of this country has been getting progressively worse since around 2012. Same for my view that having a populist government, led a by a clown who believes in English exceptionalism, was unfortunate timing for this crisis.

I’m not the biggest fan of Boris but calling him “a clown” demonstrates your bias even though you don’t believe it’s a biased view.

You’ve bought the act, hook line and sinker. He plays up to that image and ensures he is underestimated by opponents.

My view is a bit more complicated than that, I haven’t bought his act at all. I usually call him ‘the clown show’, this was just the abbreviated version. Calling him a clown is just being a bit charitable, he should be and usually is, called a lot worse.

My feelings about Boris are objective, my choice of words sometimes leave room for improvement. An incompetent liar who believes in little Englander exceptionalism would be a more accurate and therefore better way to describe him. Let’s not make it about what I think of Boris though. As I say, whatever you think of biases I might have, my judgement on this issue has been sound, the last 6 weeks of the thread are an interesting reread.

Lol
14  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: COVID19 on: April 15, 2020, 07:39:00 AM
We need to wait to have the Inquiries, but we know already that the UK outcome has been an abysmal failure.

The UK has a far bigger population but, apart from that, there are many similarities between the two countries. Yet, the death rate per 1,000 from Covid in the UK is more than twice that of Ireland. (We know the UK's figures are vastly understated, probably by at least 60%, and maybe up to 100%, but I'm not sure there's any reason to think that Ireland is any better in that regard.)

So why is Ireland's performance so much better than the UK's? Mainly because it reacted quicker and closed everything down a week before the UK. That's not it dispute.

Have a read of this: https://twitter.com/laineydoyle/status/1249127908876128259

However, it's not that Ireland's performance has outstandingly good. It has actually been terrible, one of the worst in the world. So what does that say about the UK's, to be so much worse? We don't have to wait to know whether it has been bad. In fact, we don't have to wait to know some of the reasons. However, we should wait to go through the process, unless there are aspects of the investigation that can help at this stage. However, while Irish performance may have been bad, it is getting better, with one of the highest rates of testing per thousand in the world in the last week. Why can't we match that?

Drive-through testing centre in Croke Park:


If the Irish have one of the highest rates of testing in the world isn’t that why death rate is better than UK?  The more people you test the more mild symptom cases you capture.  Or am I missing something?
15  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: COVID19 on: April 12, 2020, 08:53:22 PM
The link is explaining why we shouldn’t wait. The time to scrutinise why our response is give or take the world’s worsts so far is now. Afterwards the Tory machine will be all out for ‘that was bad chaps but let’s move on’.

https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1249247210287570944?s=21

Do you think labour would have ignored the advice they were being given and done something differently?

I think Labour (what I think Labour would have done is irrelevant but since you asked*) would have acted more in line with almost every other government in the world. The decision was absolutely a political one. The worldwide scientific consensus was overwhelmingly against the view that our government and their scientists chose to pursue.

https://twitter.com/laineydoyle/status/1249127908876128259?s=21

A better question might be ‘what would any government other than one led by Dipshit Johnson have done? It was a bad time to have a post truther in charge, the USA will suffer for the same reason. Although Trump has much less control due to state autonomy, so their ‘leadership’ problem, is smaller.

So you think they would have ignored the advice they were given about what was best for the UK, good to know.......You can’t possibly say what is right or wrong until this has all gone through the wash, don’t pretend otherwise as nobody really knows for certain.

Your angle is clear to see, and confirmed as soon as you mention the word dipshit. You are nothing more than a momentum mouthpiece, Twatter is probably a better place to post this nonsense than on here.

I have never knowingly had anything to do with Momentum. I’m not even really interested in them and don’t really know who they are. We might have supported the same politicians, from very different perspectives, in the past but that’s about it.

A lot of the views you express come from Twitter items which will be rehashed by Momentum.   People read what they want to read - whether you are aware of it or not you are effectively a "Momentum mouthpiece" as Woodsey says

This is nonsense, the only person I’ve ever seen on my Twitter feed who might be linked to Momentum is Faiza Shaheen, I have never seen a  Momentum tweet. I certainly haven’t come across a single word in any form of media on Coronavirus that I believe originated from Momentum.

Over several years and many topics I have found your posts very unbalanced.  That's not to say they are not valid, just that you are very aligned to Momentum.  You probably read more of their online propaganda than you imagine.
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