I've dazzled lil Dave on Skype with this hand and trying to work the maths out for it, it's basically a 9bb shove from sb into bb, I'm trying to prive that it's mathematically profitable (before proving it's still a bad idea for ICM reasons)...
Anyone spot a problem in this logic:
"First they assigned the big blind a calling range – all pocket pairs, all suited aces, A-5 off +, K-8 suited +, K-9 off +, Q-9 suited +, Q-T off + and J-T suited. He then fed that range into Odds Oracle and worked out whether shoving 9-3 was a profitable move and came up with the following results:
We have 29.7% against the big blind’s calling range, which obviously has 70.3%. However, if his calling range is correct, he will only be calling 26.6% of the time (as he gets dealt worse than this range 73.4% of the time).
We can therefore work out if we make a profit on average:
When he folds, we make 2.5bb profit, so on average 0.734 x 2.5 = +1.84bb
When he calls, we win 29.7% of the 19bb pot, so 0.297 x 19 = 5.64bb, a loss of (9-5.64) 3.36bb. Therefore the 26.6% of the time he calls we lose 3.36bb, or (0.266 x 3.36), an average loss of 0.89bb.
We can therefore mathematically prove, assuming we have the correct range, that we win 0.95bb every time we make this move (1.84bb when the opponent folds minus the 0.89bb loss when he calls)."
should that not be 8.5-5.64= 2.86, making it 0.77bb ave loss, making the shove + 1.07bb