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61  Poker Forums / The Rail / Re: New Red Pros on: July 25, 2013, 06:55:58 AM
Martins and Ben are great people to represent any company imo.  2 of the most personable people I've met in poker.
62  Poker Forums / The Rail / Re: Squid's In: In the Well with Sam Grafton on: July 15, 2013, 06:22:56 AM
5 books that everyone should read?
how much £ would you have to be paid to never play another hand of poker?
63  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Main Event Hand 2 on: July 08, 2013, 04:07:19 PM
fold. dont like cr bluffing cos i think its far too obv you have a bunch of hands you want to turn into bluffs
64  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Main event hand 1 on: July 08, 2013, 03:57:27 PM
ime hes the kind of guy who c.calls the flop with QT then will start bluffing when he wants to rep kq. river sizing sucks but w.e still call v him
65  Poker Forums / The Rail / Re: DTD Monte Carlo Team Side Bet on: April 17, 2013, 07:40:32 AM
sounds good, u wanna be cpt pinchop? lemme know where to send the £110
66  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Rate my bluff on: April 12, 2013, 07:30:21 AM
I don't think villain bets Ax that often on river because i don't know what he expects to get value off and i don't think he can expect you to fold Ax.  Im not sure about how often he bets missed spades here either.  I think you can get the villain to fold JTss on the river but not A2 or 22.  I think he's going to squeeze AQ pre a large % of the time but when he doesn't squeeze pre i think he will almost always bet river and have a tough decision when cr'd esp if he's blocking A2dd.  I think he can argue that you could be turning missed spades into a bluff (which he blocks a lot of when he has JTss) and also that you would sometimes just bet your value hands since he will often have Ax that will call a bet but not bet himself.  I also don't think you can rep AK because it would be too thin early in a tourney to cr river.  I think you can only have JT that contains a spade to be cbetting 6 way and also some of these combos you'd fold pre when opening utg pre ante.  I think the only 2x you can have is A2dd.

you need villain to be folding over half the hands he bets on the river I think its close so ill give you 5/10 plus a bonus star for when it gets thru and the rest of the table are too scared to vbet a river versus you all day.

67  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Big 109 spot first level ughhhhhh on: December 20, 2012, 04:22:39 AM
id bet fold river v this guy. in fact id bet fold v nearly every1 except v fps heros.
68  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Live vs Langley on: December 07, 2012, 06:30:35 PM
jam turn. id bet the flop too.
69  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Big $109 - spot on: October 09, 2012, 01:30:52 AM
i bet turn small. call river.

Is the turn bet pot control ?

And when he shoves river?

betting turn cos i think we got the nuts and villain will call with worse hands as well as charging Fds. As played im calling when he shoves the river cos villain can have worse aces that he thinks  are the nuts since we checked back turn, as well as ocassional bluffs.  you can argue that villain isnt peeling many aces that arent now FHs but in my experience v randoms in the big 109 theyll peel A6o.
70  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Big $109 - spot on: October 09, 2012, 01:15:45 AM
i bet turn small. call river.
71  Poker Forums / The Rail / Re: Sunday prop on: September 17, 2012, 01:51:24 AM
out of everything

5pm $215 WCOOP - $0
6pm $100r  - $9,688.50
6pm $22 bigger - $0
7pm $109 wcoop second chance - $0
8pm $109 bigger - $0
820 $2100 WCOOP - $0
930 $530 sunday - $0
10   $162 bigger - $339.73
11   $162 6max - $0

$10,028.23 total
72  Poker Forums / The Rail / Re: Sunday prop on: September 16, 2012, 03:59:12 PM
ye in
73  Poker Forums / The Rail / Re: Saturday Night prop on: September 15, 2012, 03:00:07 AM
actually id prefer to drop the following as well

16:00 $27 Saturday Eliminator
16:30 $55 10k gtd
16:30 hot 33
18:00 Big $22

19:30 $30r

20:15 $20cubed

dont want to be playing too many tables whilst playing the hu tourney
74  Poker Forums / The Rail / Re: Saturday Night prop on: September 15, 2012, 02:45:25 AM
im in for $100-500 if we get more ppl in, dont want to do it just hu. would prefer to drop the 2nd chance hu.
75  Poker Forums / The Rail / Re: Bubble Insurance on: August 30, 2012, 04:55:48 AM
Taking the results of a really good player who plays quite a tight game, his finishing positions (according to OPR over a 15,608 mtt sample, $199 ave buyin) are

MTT Avg. Finish Percentage
Early   3% (10%)
Early/Middle   10% (20%)
Middle   45% (40%)
Middle/Late   29% (20%)
Late   13% (10%)

Assuming top 10% of field get paid then bubble protection would pay out when he finishes in the top 10-20%, which from this data I'm going to estimate happens 14.5% of the time. Looking at the prices on bubbleprotection.com they charge $13.08 for it on a $109. Therefore to make it profitable for a player they need to be finishing in that 10% bracket more than 12% of the time.  For this player bubble protection would be worthwhile before you even consider the benefits to this player of reducing variance  and being able to be more aggressive on the actual bubble.

I agree that for most players its burning money, but of you play a good tight style then it may be profitable to buy it.
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