Karabiner, ty for the insight into Xhaka and the team. Yeh i am hoping it is bittersweet for Vieira with a Palace win, but even with the perceived value, there is a leap of faith involved as we actually haven't got a real completely positive result over the line aside from Spurs at home but needed them to go down to 10 men before we started scoring late into the game. I figure that is why the odds on the game are where they are.
Also ty for Price darts views Arb. I am already on Jose de Sousa from way back, after i believe i heard positive news on him from this thread. In from 28/1 to 16/1 best currently.
For the first time in years I think there is value in a Palace bet, watch it lead balloon now lol.
I think Palace to win at 5/1 and for the double chance Palace/draw at 13/10 is value. The onus i think on the double chance for Palace's propensity to draw games they should be winning recently. I would bet Palace on the double chance at 1.9 happily, with 1.8/1.75 the line in my head that i think is no value.
I think the 7 points from 7 games is near relegation form from Palace but i am not sure it shows the whole picture of what has happened in the games. The expected points has us on effectively 10 points for example which would have us above Arsenal's expected points. It is an lol sample size granted, but i have been enthused by what i have watched from the West Ham second half onwards. We seem to be a more possession based team now. We played Leicester off of the park for huge periods which was shocking to see with 60% possession versus their 40% and we gave Brighton a somewhat dominating performance too.
That is in possession and threat, but it can be a bit toothless for all the pressure for clear cut chances, which i am hoping is improving as it looks like it has been. Another consideration, unfortunately, are the mistakes our new centre back pairing are making. I have counted 4 between them leading directly to goals, which is abysmal in seven games. Guehi shockingly left a ball over the top for Brighton to equalise as one, Anderson shurgged way too easily off of the ball by Antonio away to West Ham as another, and the first and second goals against Leicester were clear Anderson errors. For all of that though, if you were to contact a palace fan, they could tell you they absolutely love Guehi and Anderson. And i can see why. They are very composed on the ball, and set the tone for our new style of play which passes out from the back on the deck more often, (barring an Anderson long ball to a winger which often hits the target) and it is much more aesthetically pleasing to watch generally. They seem to be good tackling on the deck, Guehi better of the two and Anderson is better in the air. They have been solid aside from their mistakes i have found. But those mistakes really irk me. And i hope it is just bad luck that so many have happened so quickly. Without the outright errors that is easily 4 more points against Brighton and Leicester, and you'd hope the rate of mistakes won't continue like that, as Palace have "deserved" more points.
Going forward Gallagher has been immense. Doesn't stop running and harassing and probably is the best player on the pitch for Palace. He seems to compliment Macarthur so well, with Milo sitting in. Zaha I think has entered a new period of his football career that involves him taking on players 1on1 a lot less. He really has become less threatening on that front and it could be age. He has it in him to get out of tight spots and do well, but he much prefers to pass around defenders now. Palace fans are probably still coming to terms with that drop off. His final product is still good though and he is threatening so i am not throwing him under the bus we are still lucky to have him and he is a club legend. In terms of a big move away for Zaha i think that isn't on, but i may be wrong. It gets a lot easier for them to take a punt on him if they get him on a free at the end of 22/23 season or cut price at the end of this season. Ayew many fans are shocked still starts ahead of Olise. He runs his arse off and is good defensively, but i am itching to see Olise replace him in the side. Whether to start Benteke or Edouard is an interesting one. If Olise starts with his crossing capability i would err towards Benteke as that i feel could be a lethal combo, but with Olise probably not starting i would give Edouard the nod. Edouard can frustrate in periods of games where he looks like he isn't contributing then can explode into life.
To summarise on Palace i think we could be a top 10 side if things start to click in a way that it looks like it will. I am always very hesitant to be optimistic like this, as technically Vieira hasn't been delivering results, but i think they will come. What we did to Leicester in our composure and possession really enthused me and if Anderson wasn't on a madness I think we would have won comfortably, which i hope is an indicator that we have risen a level from last year rather than it being a one off performance. It was much the same in feel against Brighton at home the next game.
To Arsenal. They had a tough start of it with the fixture list. Then won 3 of their last 4 games. Dismantling Spurs, their most impressive result. I think Ramsdale has come into his own in recent games. I remember thinking he was a crap Jordan Pickford last year, but seems to have matured, so credit where it is due. You have a young side there that will increasingly get better which is always going to be a threat. Though I hope to have seen enough in their fixture with Brighton in their last game which was 0-0 which makes me believe of the three results that can happen on Monday, getting better than evens for the Draw and Palace seems a good go.
I think the value lies with the bookies looking at Palace's relegation form versus Arsenal's 3 wins and a draw in their last four games. I am not sure the Vieira and Arsenal connection will make a difference here.
Stale price of 90/1 on Konta with unibat. She just took down Nottingham. Best elsewhere is 40/1. Got no insight into this in terms of value, just see the the disparity with the rest of the market
It is a big outlier, but until this week, it felt like she had been bang out of form since at least the start of Covid. I don't even think she was in great form this week; a couple of matches were a struggle and she was clear top seed. I'll be cheering her on, but won't be taking the price. Think they could palp you and stop your account, and don't think it is worth it for that price.
Katie Boulter was looking good before her injury FWIW. Given she started so short against Watson, I don't think there will be much value going forward from backing her either. I can definitely see her pulling off a shock against a higher seed, assuming she isn't going to drop out of Wimbledon with an injury.
If they call offering 90s when 45s are the best price elsewhere a palp then we might as well stop betting now, right?
I would imagine unibet just employ a part time work experience kid as their tennis trader and instead just let oeople bet a fiver.
"...or stop your account". Given that has effectively happened to every account I have, then I don't think it is unreasonable to be wary of unadjusted price moves. How much do they lay? A fiver each way means you could lose an account for £3 or so of EV. I wouldn't do it for that, though you'll probably lose it easy enough regardless. I don't think picking big outliers is the best strategy for betting unless you have good access to a pool of accounts.
They shouldn't really call palp on mistakes like this, but that doesn't mean they won't. Have seen. more laughable tales over the years.
kerber won wimbledon last year and is 120/1 with them. 50/1 best price elsewhere. You are right about these prices for a lot of players being out of line
Stale price of 90/1 on Konta with unibat. She just took down Nottingham. Best elsewhere is 40/1. Got no insight into this in terms of value, just see the the disparity with the rest of the market
midnight in 21 hours time, the above documentary is released on Amazon prime, and it is mostly hinged on the promotion season that made the bulk of this thread. For those that toiled with all of these lengthy posts, might get a better insight into why i was so excited. Murray/Zaha/Bolasie in the championship was a ridiculous trio. Just an incredible season.
And for a random hot take no one has asked for, I don't think Roy should have been shown the door, one more season was needed imo, especially if Zaha leaves this summer. Hodgson would have probably been good for stability, especially considering the transition with out of contract players, but I am hopeful the new man can keep us up. A lot of Palace fans are acting eerily like ungrateful Charlton fans in the prem under Curbishly and i don't want a part of that. Unsatisfied with just comfortably surviving, i really think a lot of our fanbase needs to simmer down and be grateful of how luxurious it has been to feel safe in the prem for the last two seasons. Yes the football Hodgson played was dire at times, and often felt as if he wasn't getting the most out of the players, but the safe feeling by which he has avoided relegation, i fear we will miss if we get into the mire with, imo, his unnecessary parting. Also i think it's ageism mainly. Being 73 years old gets thrown against him way too often. And i pose if a 50 year old manager did what Hodgson did this season, there would be no question over his job because of the points tally. Injuries were very impactful as well and the ship remained steady.
Is this a restriction on a freedom? Or a necessary tool to limit problem gamblers? Obv not going to get much sympathy from this crowd on here, but if similar restrictions were to happen for say alcohol when being bought at a shop, or other problem areas it would never gain traction. So why is it acceptable to do it in the gambling industry? I haven't really wrapped my head around the whole picture.
cheers. I haven't had a look in at all with Palace as I have always struggled reading a Hodgson side, so the only value spot i have seen to add in here for a while
The Luxembourg+3 landed. If it wasn't for the ref allowing 10 more seconds in addition to injury time in the first half to allow for a Portugal equaliser it could have been a different story as Luxembourg looked good in the first half and that must have rocked them for the second half as well. Portugal came out firing in the second half after a managerial half time bollocking, buoyed by the equaliser. Luxembourg definitely perky and one to look out for maybe for their tie against Serbia which may have favourable odds. Gerson Rodrigues a good player.
Luxembourg seem a little nibble at 31/1 at home to Portugal with SBK. The 3/4 available for Luxembourg+3 also interests. They looked solid enough not to be that price against Ireland conceding few chances against an Ireland side that scored two and looked quite good away to Serbia but for Travers the goalkeeper to ultimately let them down. Aside from a Collins chance that the keeper did well with Luxembourg were solid, and could frustrate Portugal. They lost 2-0 to Portugal a year and a bit ago and were perky with chances of their own, undone by a bit of Fernandes brilliance, and a bundled second. Luxembourg might be riding the crest of the wave after the Ireland result and might be bang up for it. Portugal may still be reeling after their disallowed winner that never was against Serbia.
Cue the 3-0 spanking, but just putting it out there if its of interest.
Are Everton worth backing, mainly in the handicap markets tomorrow because of their uptick in form and the inclusion of Bravo in goal for City? Also City weren't up to much before their first controversial goal against Sheffield Utd?
I generally agree, we've looked pretty jaded in recent weeks whereas Everton have a spring in their step, however worth noting that Ederson will be back tomorrow.
oh really about Ederson? I'm nowhere near as interested now. Crap. I thought it was a 3 game suspension?
Are Everton worth backing, mainly in the handicap markets tomorrow because of their uptick in form and the inclusion of Bravo in goal for City? Also City weren't up to much before their first controversial goal against Sheffield Utd?
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