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16  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Golf Betting on: November 15, 2010, 08:03:27 PM
Good effort Rich..........not quite though, a case of what ifs!

Don't know if you watched it but Poulter had 3, 10 foot birdie putts in first 3 holes on the resumption, all shaved hole - if one of those drops.......

He also very nearly chipped in on I think it was the 16th......again, if that had dropped, think he might of gone on to win. Scott's putting was awful.

Never mind....look forward to this weeks selections!

You playing Friday at EQ? Looks like could be 25k. 
17  Poker Forums / Live Tournament Updates / Re: DTD November Deepstack £100,000 Guaranteed on: November 07, 2010, 03:51:36 PM
GL Richard Blacklock......TID
18  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Golf Betting on: November 07, 2010, 01:50:14 PM
Nice one Eso Kral!

Two placed for decent profit!

Only small stakes from me but a profits  a profit!

Well done - keep 'em coming!
19  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Set on flushing board - fast or slow? on: October 25, 2010, 07:07:23 PM
[[/quote]

As Keys said this is what we call an action killer.

If he happens to have 2 pair or a worse set then you aren't getting his stack now.

You only get action on a club turn if you're beat so the flop is the time to get it in if possible.

Also if the tunr comes a club will it not worry you at all? What if he jams the club turn? You folding?[/b][/quote]

I dont see how he can have so I can rep it if club comes on turn.

Anyway, I did bet flop, 2300 and villain folded showing 99 - just wanted to see if there was any other way of extracting any more.

Thanks all for opinions and great point about 3 bet size.
20  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Set on flushing board - fast or slow? on: October 24, 2010, 08:03:43 PM
Thanks Gents.

Is checking the flop horrible?

Couldn't put villian on AcX (unless AK - unlikely with 3 kings out) - calling my pre flop raise OOP.

Checking could induce villain bet on turn as he would expect me to bet flop with AK, KK, AA.

If turn brings club - he must fear as surely he can't have it in his range - so can rep it. Also obv could fill up on river.

Anyone checking flop?

 
21  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Trips on flushing board - fast or slow? on: October 24, 2010, 05:15:42 PM
GUKPT Club Championship Walsall - £200 buy in

10k stack, 30 mins

Villian 16k
Hero 10k

Not really tangled with Villain before. Only read looks solid player, hasn't shown down any rubbish or got caught. Made looked like squeeze play and floated several times ( or so it looked).

Hero not shown a hand, have 3 bet twice in last two orbits  (once against villian) and have continue bet a raise 3/4 hands played so far (exception was against 3 callers).

Blinds 100/200 25 Ante, 10 handed.

Villian makes it 600 in Hijack, Hero OTB makes it 1950 with two red kings.

Flop.... three clubs

Villian checks

what now?     
22  Poker Forums / The Rail / Re: "DIFFERENT STROKES" AND "MOODY TUNES" on: October 24, 2010, 04:54:38 PM
Didn't make DTD in time due to work/norfolk traffic!

Walsall only managed 31 runners, thought might be more seeing as the club championship thingy.

Lost flip with 14 players left.

One hand still bugging me - will post on PHA - not sure I played it right altho won hand!
23  Poker Forums / The Rail / Re: "DIFFERENT STROKES" AND "MOODY TUNES" on: October 24, 2010, 03:01:10 PM
You're a bad boy Eso........not the first time you've made that move though is it?! lol!

Intrigued who it was against though, surely not Steve O?
24  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Standard call and win flip? on: June 07, 2010, 04:50:31 PM
£300 Freezeout

430k chips in play

4 remaining

Hero 85k
Villain 180k
Player 3 75k
Player 4 90k

Blinds 2k/4k w 500 ante

Prize Structure:

1st 3k
2nd 1.5k
3rd 1,100
4th 900

Hero image: Fairly LAG, just shown bluff winning 30k pot with 3 high.

Villain image: ABC, big hands winning big pots.

BOB, Villain moves all in.

Hero 55

Context: Only been 4 handed a short while, last 4 BOB, Villain twice folded and twice moved all in showing an ace both times.

Hero viewed himself at least as good as 2 of the other 3 players.

£300 buy in, on the max of hero’s normal tourney buy in.

Hero called, understand the fold equity and better spots rationale of folding but spot seemed good to take big step to win the top prize, thought at worst was a flip, maybe sometimes ace + 2/3/4/5  countered by middle PP. Discounted premium hands due to overraise. Thoughts please.
25  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / European Deepstack - Late Day 1 on: February 15, 2010, 08:58:46 PM
550 Euro Buy In

465 Runners

50,000 starting stack, blinds 50/100, 60 min clock

10 handed, 320 runners remain

Hero UTG+1 65k
Villian 1 Button 90k
Villian 2 BB 60k

Image:

Button – Defends button, often appears to float large flop c bets, passed a few times to the rere raise on flop. Very aggressive.

BB – Loosened up after very tight play for first 5 or 6 hours into play. Appeared to have made a couple of squeeze plays although not seen hand.

Hero – Tight image, misplayed a couple of key hands (playing them very timidly & weakly) – probably had image that could be outplayed (maybe its more than just an image lol!)

Blinds 700/1400 200 Ante

Hero (UTG+1) raises to 3,500 with AKdd

Button flats

BB flats

Flop 8d6s2d

Hero leads for 7k, Button calls, BB raises to 26k

What now?

Hero’s Plan/Thoughts:

Didn’t want to check and risk being checked round or either call to hit. Either way seemed like giving up the initiative and a c-bet may well pick up pot.

Betting out, if button raises, plan to jam(seen him pass on a couple of these occasions). If Button calls, then fire again if miss turn and fold to turn raise(not seen button make that move yet, without hand). If hit turn, check to induce bluff and call.

Is that thinking reasonable?

Anyway, the bb raise looked like squeeze play to me. My read was that he was not strong. His previous raises were much smaller – maybe very strong hand but he didn’t look comfortable. Also his raise amount looked like he was trying to look pot committed(actually probably was)….

Hero decided to jam, reckoning that button only calls 25% of time(sets), probably even folds any pair upto maybe Queens, especially in view of my tight image. So 75% of time he folds.

BB probably calls 50% of time, couldn’t really see any 2p combo’s, so up against trips or maybe draws or air. If up against strong hand still have flush outs. 50% time I reckon he folds.

Any views on those assumptions?

Anyone take me through the maths of that calculations?

The final thought, was that the chip leaders at the end of day 1 would be on around 250k, this pot could be 190k(ish). I reckoned I wasn’t in top skill level on my table so happy to gamble for a big pot.

Thoughts?
26  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Folding JJ on: September 16, 2009, 03:44:03 PM
still not sure.....

only have 300 invested in pot, no fold equity, 2 players behind(albeit unlikely to have anything) and most likely to be racing.......thought i'd find better spots..........
27  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Folding JJ on: September 16, 2009, 02:19:07 PM
Live MTT

£500 buy in

25 Runners (15k each = 370kish chips in play)
6 Left
6th £500, 5th £1000, 4th 1500........1st £5k

1500/3000, 300 ante, half way through 45 min clock

My stack, 100k
Villian 1, stack of 28k
Villian 2, stack 130k

Villian 1 UTG, Villian 2 Cut off, Me on button

Villian 1, loose image, well known to push with any two, villian 2, respected player, have seen isolate raise before, my image tight, but have got active during last level 

UTG pushes, Villian 2 pushes, I have JJ.

Should I fold or call?

My thinking: UTG range is very wide, any ace or small pair, at worse(for me) kq. Villian 2 push cries out of isolating with maybe TT,JJ, AK or AQ, maybe QQ, but not likely AA or KK. Am confident I'm ahead of UTG, so if both UTG & I get knocked out, I'm guaranteed £1k (I qualified for £40).  If Villian has big ace, UTG could also have one of his outs.  In any event I could be racing with a chance to win over 2/3 of chips in play. Also blinds are getting very big compared to chips in play. But could be up against 3 overcards or overpair. Also have blinds behind to act. Obviously no fold equity either.

Decided to fold.

UTG 88, Villian 2 AK........JJ would have scooped the lot(but thats not the point.......was i right to fold?).

Cheers

 
28  Poker Forums / The Rail / Re: GUKPT Luton Main Event - Any Advice! on: August 03, 2009, 02:56:18 PM
Andy King.

Celtic & Colchester Kev probably know who I am, as they had 10% of me the last time I qualified for a big(ish) tournament (well, big for my bankroll anyway!).

Not sure I'll be able to wear any Blonde stickers as I qualified via sponsors. Or can I?
29  Poker Forums / The Rail / GUKPT Luton Main Event - Any Advice! on: August 03, 2009, 02:28:14 PM
Qualified for the main event, only a very very recreational player, so Thursdays a big step up for me, any advice anyone care to offer a fellow Blonde (albeit, newbie!)?

Thanks

Andy
 
30  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Value bet missed? on: May 07, 2009, 08:25:28 PM
£100 FO.

7 players at table, 2nd level (50/100).

Cutoff - loose, often chases draws, happy to gamble - get a big chip stack or go out early.
BB - unknown.
Button (me!) - no real action, 1 raise and continuation bet during first level.   

All three players about 7500.

Cutoff limps, I raise to 400 with  , SB passes, BB calls.

Flop  three diamonds .

BB & Cutoff check, I bet 800, both call.

Turn  two spades, checked to me again, I bet 2200, both call.

River  , checked to me again, I check.

BB shows  , Cutoff mucks without showing(but saying had nut flush draw).

Thoughts on play and specifically did i miss a bet on river.

My rationale(for what its worth) that one player was likely to be on flush/straight draw but the other may have set or two pair (J9s?) and I was only getting called by hand beating me...but to be honest I perhaps should have realised that I would have got paid by the JK or JA to a small bet on river? but what if he then came over top of my small river bet? I couldnt call or could I?

Maybe a simple one, but interested in views....
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