Sigh busted last level of the day and only about 50 from ITM, nothing went right after dinner and then busted on my first jam. PLO in 11hrs
Basically only one interesting spot happened after dinner:
I open J9hh from the cutoff to 1500 at 600bb playing 13.2k, BB peels and we see a flop of J33ddh, he checks i bet 1200 he calls, turn
he checks i bet 3000 he calls river
he checks again and I have 7500 back.
This guy was pretty splashy, had opened a load of pots in EP and folded to 3b a lot, he'd also folded around half his BB's to opens which was obviously a bit contrary to his pfr frequency. My decision boiled down to accurately gauging the range he has that gets to the river and then either calls or folds.
I would expect him to make an aggressive action pre with perhaps 22-QQ maybe KK/AA and probably AT+/KJ+ given my stack size, I imagine he peels all Jxs but would have folded some diamond combos.
On the flop I figure he calls all A high, all 3x all Jx all diamond combos and then some Kx and some bdoor hands like 45hh QThh etc.
On the turn I would expect him to fold those Kx and unimproved bdoor draws, call some Ax, all 3x, and then have some blend of calls/jams with diamonds/Jx.
So by the river I thought it was a close decision on whether to jam or not, can be beaten by JT/QJ/KJ(that didnt rip pre) AA/KK and 3x combos as well perhaps by 44 but as I said this guy just struck me as the type to pile that in pre. Hands that I beat, Jxs and J8o probs the only off suit combo, perhaps the small pairs he might not have jammed (again if hes not ripping pre), 8x 4x diamond draws.
A big consideration was that we are only approx 50 off the money and it leaves me 12bb if i'm beat which is a decent shot at getting ITM, with all things weighed up I decided to check back but still not sure what is best, enter Pleno plz (I guess hard unless we know his calling range on river)
J3348 vs bb?
Assuming you want to value bet rather than bluff I would most likely check turn and go for bigger street OTR, he will have some random QTbdfd floats OTF, people generally overbluffing once initiative is surrendered on a previous street so he may do some dumb bluff like ATo when board runs out J3347, can bluff all his KQs etc and when he does check 3 times we can go for a bigger street on the river than the turn, it will confuse him and generally when people are confused they want to know the answer. I would go 3 streets with QJ+
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