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10096  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: PLOMAHAHAHAHA IS TAKING OVER PHA. Another hand.... on: July 25, 2010, 02:08:12 AM
comedy thing here cos Iv started to experiment with these tiny river bets a bit HU (more on that in a few lines)

Preflop: I dont hate the 3ball at all preflop PROVIDING that you dont have any sicko's in the blinds. the guy who opens has 65bigs and that is a ridic hard stack size to play post, so assuming that you;re not gonna get pwned too often by the blinds, (who SHOULD give you credit for a hand to call of $68 with) then you can pot 3ball, and he'll either c/r of c/f pretty much all flops so you can can bet pot pretty much blind on the flop and you should show a profit + you'll often find him folding pre (as played). If this was your thinking I agree. you do have a reasonable amount of flop equity (although not too much nutted but i really dont think thats a huge problem here as any equity you flop is likely to be exclusive once he's peeled pre assuming he doesnt have hearts.)

Flop: stnd ye

Turn: I would bet fold here for DEFINATE vs someone i dont know. Maybe he puts it in your eye with the  but meh. chances are (spesh if he is a fish) he wont let any sets.two pairs go. Id bet fairly hefty aswel, $36ish. I never like to check back the flop and call the river in these spots because chances are if he bets the river he has a bigger flush anyway V unlikely he trys to VB two pair or randomly bluffs. May aswel take the initative imo. Plus, I think you want you range in these spots (cos they come up a ton) to include baby flushes as well because then its a lot easier to accuratly VB 2/3 streets with higher non-nut flushes + a lot easier to credibly rep turned flushes after c-betting two-tone boards (if you check back small flushes and only bet big ones then you always have a LOT fewer flushes in your range on the turn in these situations)

River: Here id probs just flick a call in. Although interestingly I have been playing about with these tiny bets myself lately and I've been doing it with the nuts a bit trying to make people spazz (given up on that though cos its insane tilting when they flick in a call with 3rd nuts they never fold for a pot bet) also been trying it with nut blockers DEEP so i can JAM when people raise. Most of the time I see it happen though Its just a blocker bet, so with that in mind ID STRONGLY consider making it $40 and folding if he jams Im sure you;re deep enough to, having said that the  flush might also be in the range he's blockering with, in which case youd feel like an absolute mongel!
10097  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Our UTG 4-bet gets flatted... on: July 25, 2010, 01:47:55 AM
With 20k in the pot we only need to have the best hand 47% of the time to make shoving profitable even if we assume that he never calls with worse (which he obv does sometimes)

that is a terrible way of assessing this hand

Explain to me how this is a terrible way to assess this hand.

The goal of a poker tournament is to get all this chips. I'm going to assume that we agree on this.

We have one pot size bet left, so our options are to check/fold or to shove

Shoving is +chipEV if he has us beat <47% of the time. So if we think that we have the best hand 47% of the time we can profitably shove. Given that he only has ~20% equity with the hands that he calls with that we're beating I'll take a conservative estimate that we need to have the best hand only ~42% of the time to make shoving +chipEV.

So if we think that we're good 42% of the time we should shove, if not we should check fold.

Explain to me how thats a bad way of analysing the hand than deciding whether or not it wins us chips 'cos if you've got a better way its gunna be pretty revolutionary.

Dan, as clever as all this maths is, what is we go all in and he has an ace, then we're in trouble no?

much better off to let the 1/3 of our chips go, and take the sub-optimal line because the guy probably is rubbish and we can double up to 40bigs when we find KK after he has peeled a open with 99? Cos I mean, thats definatley going to happen, and after all even if it doesn't we'll still probs manage a min-cash which we might not be able to do if we fold.



that is a terrible way of assesing this hand
10098  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Our UTG 4-bet gets flatted... on: July 25, 2010, 01:47:05 AM
With 20k in the pot we only need to have the best hand 47% of the time to make shoving profitable even if we assume that he never calls with worse (which he obv does sometimes)

that is a terrible way of assessing this hand

Explain to me how this is a terrible way to assess this hand.

The goal of a poker tournament is to get all this chips. I'm going to assume that we agree on this.

We have one pot size bet left, so our options are to check/fold or to shove

Shoving is +chipEV if he has us beat <47% of the time. So if we think that we have the best hand 47% of the time we can profitably shove. Given that he only has ~20% equity with the hands that he calls with that we're beating I'll take a conservative estimate that we need to have the best hand only ~42% of the time to make shoving +chipEV.

So if we think that we're good 42% of the time we should shove, if not we should check fold.

Explain to me how thats a bad way of analysing the hand than deciding whether or not it wins us chips 'cos if you've got a better way its gunna be pretty revolutionary.

Dan, as clever as all this maths is, what is we go all in and he has an ace, then we're in trouble no?

much better off to let the 1/3 of our chips go, and take the sub-optimal line because the guy probably is rubbish and we can double up to 40bigs when we find KK after he has peeled a open with 99? Cos I mean, thats definatley going to happen, and after all even if it doesn't we'll still probs manage a min-cash which we might not be able to do if we fold.

10099  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Our UTG 4-bet gets flatted... on: July 24, 2010, 02:17:07 PM
I REALLLY REALLLY REALLLY think that you just jam over the 3bet pre in these tourneys - its a miles better option than 3betting so big because its effectively the same thing but jamming just takes this vomit inducing situation away from you

alternatively yyou could 4ball a bit smaller but again see you point you been 3balled by someone who looks like an idiot so just jam it in imo
he folds meh cool we win some chips
he calls it off with 99 cool gg sir wp
he has AA and snaps you off you were always gona go broke anyway

10100  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: UKIPT Brighton - Disgusting spot in level 1 on: July 24, 2010, 12:58:33 PM
what % of the time do people shove?

I dont think id ever shove unless the villian is a complete mongrel...
10101  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Live Cash on: July 24, 2010, 12:55:09 PM
i dont think aq+ 77+ is a "very tight range" in a live cash game.
What 3-Betting? Really. Have not played a massive amount of live cash this year but played a fair bit around a fair few locations, probably most at Les Croupiers though. You see a lot of very loose calls but three betting light is not exactly prolific at £1/£1 or £1/£0.50?

thats my point?


Oh yeah, my bad for posting after coming back from too long in the pub. What I meant to say is yes you are probably right.

i.e if people call squeezes/3bets too loose then they are going to fold more flops ayyyyyyyyyyye Smiley
although 3betting light and barrelling 3 is generally not a great plan ....
10102  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: 200plo Rough Spot DEEP on: July 24, 2010, 12:53:20 PM
definitely a sick spot, closer to a fold than a ship on the turn for sure but I think we can flat here with 500 behind. I dunno, I guess I just hate folding. Flatting turn and folding blank rivers seems pretty spewy as we're effectively calling the turn to try and bink a boat which may or may not be good.

On the flop he must know you have a 9, so it seems like a really bad spot for him to bluff. I dunno, I guess I puke in my mouth a little bit and fold.

What we learn from this is to not play good regs though. Nothing wrong with good game selection. As bad as people make bumhunting out to be, its obv more profitable than sitting good regs.

Yep very shrewd. Its pretty much only ego that makes you do stuff like this, but I did feel like I had a small edge (fwiw he quit playing me in the end yay!) i ran slightly above EV vs him and managed 1.44 bb/100 over 15600 hands lol wp nice edge etc Smiley

It felt at the time like my hand looked EXACTLY like it was. This obv makes me super exploitable in this spot because KK/99 are the only hands that can take a pot pot pot. K9 is tricky because even then I only beat a bluff but still probs call call call. But there really isnt any other line in the hand...

I definatley considered checking the flop back because in truth I dont have a really strong hand, I have 1 nut out and zero BD nut draws. vs this player as well I should have defo considered trying to build a much stronger range to c/back flops like this to protect weaker hands I want to check back flops with. I didn't really do anything like that vs this guy which is defo a mistake.

my gut instinct at the time was to call/call but I bottled it and folded, so obv i dunno what he had but my gut instinct would be he had some some of K block wrap hand that he thought could barrel me off 9 combo's. I just didnt wannt stick 400bigs in drawing dead (nit nit nit etc)

bumhunting ftw yo

10103  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: 200plo Rough Spot DEEP on: July 23, 2010, 08:40:27 PM
Farking hell what a nightmare. I reckon because we are playing so deep I have to fold the turn unless we fill up. Its hard to think what he's raising with on the flop that doesn't beat you apart from a worse 9, but I ain't good enough to fold to the flop raise..................

Ye i think folding the flop is bad....true we beat like pretty much nothing in his value range
10104  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: .25/.50c PLO Hand on: July 23, 2010, 08:38:59 PM
I actually opted to ship on this occasion and one other player called as well as Assad. He did indeed have AAxx, other player had some BS hand and I binked obv Cheesy

I think we can take a results orientated line and say GOOD SHOVE wiiiiiiiii
10105  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: 200plo Rough Spot DEEP on: July 23, 2010, 07:42:56 PM
This is a really tough one for any of us to answer better than you because of the dynamic you have with the guy after x amount of hands.

He's got me confused because if he's bluffing his sizing is kinda bad and if he's got it I would expect him to bet a tad less.


Dirty spot.

If the turn is a 7 or a 10 what do u dave?

abs no idea lol - what do you think?

George he could defo flat pre with KKxx combos - id never seen him min preflop before, so i was thinking it was probs a misclick, but as i say he is v gd and I these baords are cool to c/raise light HU in plo....but he doesn't actually c/raise that many flops, we played another hand once i always remember playing 100bbs deep he  c/raised a 335 baord with 6678 and bdoor fd then barreled turn and river ful near full pot after he bricks (hand was memerable cos I had AA33 lol)

But I know he'd take this line for value aswel

If the turn is a 7 I don't fold.

The 8 and 10 are puke cards because if he does have a 9 I'd expect him to have these with them.

Think I call turn and pass river. Not sure though.

sdgjshkdghso'pfhdfh

I agree its just a totally bizarre spot to be bluffing or completely airballing - it was slightly out of character for him aswel because he is extremely prone to pretty much exactly half pot bets on these kind of textures, so it makes no sense for him to pot pot with air, and in a way seems odd to with full as well. One massive though In my head at the time was that he might have a hand like JQKT and he's trying to barrel me off AA or the exact hand I have. but then unless there badugi he'd probs 5ball a hand like that given that I often small 4bet decent gapped rundowns and hands similar to this pre-flop, but this defo puts more in my percieved range and he know's i hate folding so it seems to make a bluff all the less feesible.

Cos you reckon I can call the turn and fold to a pot bet on the river when its an offsuit 2 or something?
10106  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: 200plo Rough Spot DEEP on: July 23, 2010, 07:22:38 PM
Could he have a worse 9 on the flop and now be barrelling it for value on the turn? What worse hands do you call with? U hero here with just a king? I think I call although like I say your hand is face up.

This is why I play with just two cards

would you call any river or fold on certain rivers?
10107  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Last 3 with one very shortstack.. shove any 2? on: July 23, 2010, 07:04:29 PM
Totally player dependant. If you think that you're gunna get snapped off by 44 and K9 then you should be shoving pretty tight.

I much prefer raise/folding than shoving in this spot, assuming that the guy isn't good enough to just jam 100% over our raise or bad enough to flat us a lot.

make it 16000 and fold if he shoves. Chances are he will shove or fold incorrectly and you auto-profit.
10108  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: 200plo Rough Spot DEEP on: July 23, 2010, 07:00:30 PM
Dirty spot.

If the turn is a 7 or a 10 what do u dave?

abs no idea lol - what do you think?

George he could defo flat pre with KKxx combos - id never seen him min preflop before, so i was thinking it was probs a misclick, but as i say he is v gd and I these baords are cool to c/raise light HU in plo....but he doesn't actually c/raise that many flops, we played another hand once i always remember playing 100bbs deep he  c/raised a 335 baord with 6678 and bdoor fd then barreled turn and river ful near full pot after he bricks (hand was memerable cos I had AA33 lol)

But I know he'd take this line for value aswel
10109  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / 200plo Rough Spot DEEP on: July 23, 2010, 05:36:18 PM
As a background, very capable, very agressive REG on ftp, we have a ton of history (over 9k hands at this point) but hadnt played for over 7 months, we were 4tabling and I think I was winning about $600 at this point but we were playing 1/2 200bbs so he wouldnt be tilting or anything. about 20mins into the session.


***** Hand History for Game 17285717944 ***** (Full Tilt)
$200.00 USD PL Omaha - Saturday, May 01, 08:07:26 ET 2010
Table Maxwell (heads up deep) (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Seat 1: lildavefish ( $822.00 USD )
Seat 2: ShipItToPapa ( $823.50 USD )
lildavefish posts small blind [$1.00 USD].
ShipItToPapa posts big blind [$2.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to lildavefish [   ]
lildavefish raises [$5.00 USD]
ShipItToPapa raises [$8.00 USD]
lildavefish raises [$16.00 USD]
ShipItToPapa calls [$12.00 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ , , ]
ShipItToPapa checks
lildavefish bets [$22.00 USD]
ShipItToPapa raises [$110.00 USD]
lildavefish calls [$88.00 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ ]
ShipItToPapa bets [$225.00 USD]
lildavefish Huh?

Interested to know thoughts on pre-flop sizing, and the line you take from the flop.

Thanks.
10110  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: 0.5/1 PLO Hand on: July 23, 2010, 05:27:05 PM
fold pre too imo

Definitely would be bad to fold pre here. At 50PLO its very unlikely to get repotted pre and you can safely assume that everyone else behind is going to call the $10, meaning that we also should call.

wrong

small stakes PLO is and always has been super loose passive in my experience. If you'd care to elaborate as to why thats not that case, feel free...

Well I've prob played a few hundred k hands at 25c50c PLO and in my experience someone would often squeeze here to try and thin the field getting a great price for their hand.

My only reference point is from a couple of years ago when I was in these games but unless 50 or 100PLO has got tougher and more aggro then I think the preflop call is fine. The fact that its a short buyin table imo makes it way more fishy and therefore less likely to be aggro preflop

Imo we should defo call the extra $8 cos we're in now, but I dont like entering the pot initially, The hand (spades aside) has very little exclusive equity in a lot of instances in such a limpy game as low stakes SS plo similar combo's and pair hands that squeeze behind have us pretty crushed. Its defo not terrible, but I dont think callcalling these hands from 50bbs is going to show much profit, id much rather be waiting for awesome squeeze spots pre or until i have a wrap Smiley
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