blah, I fold this faster than a fast thing on fast day. But I might just be too tight. I reckon you're never favourite to win the hand here.

Running KK22 vs two other hands in the top 15% that aren't AAxx we should definitely get it in

This is very close, but i think you're underestimating how frequently Asado has AAxx hands. I think a fold would be marginally more profitable in this instance. If I was loosing for the session id call tho lol

I really disagree that this spot as a stnd polarises your hand to  or AIR If you have a built a range here then surely 2/3/4th nut flushes + cool merge combos like  x or even  ....

I dont think that overshove bluffing/value betting is +EV at all in spots where you're polarized.

OK, thanks everyone for your posts, some really good analysis ITT, I don't wanna put an end to it so please feel free to do some aftertiming once I post these results

Still, the results haven't really confirmed anything, I'm betting $345 into $136 so only need to win >72% of the time to turn a profit, and he had the nuts this time, who's to say how often he has the Ah and it is still unknown whether he makes the hero call with AQo, QJ or the . Also, metagame. Good bluff imo

I agree that he very rarely has a flush on the turn and that he rarely has the  on the river.
As a side topic, would you consider a shove in this spot as played if you have the  ?

if you reach the river here as played with the  /  /  ?

[cash players playing 1-1 are massive stations preflop.]

raise bigger pre, at least £10. We have KK and live cash players playing 1-1 are massive stations preflop.

Once we get 3bet, loving this spot because people almost never 3bet/folding. I make it £80.

As played I check raise a bit bigger and shove over the flop 3bet.

+1

I'd want to figure out the range of hands he calls a $129.63 river bet with that he mucks to a $377.50 river bet....and if there's no discernable difference, which there isn't, I'd wonder why I'm betting $377.50.

There is definatley a difference. If he has nutz or air here then there is no difference because any hand with a heart or even most can call profitably.
If he has a range here that includes a shove for value with smaller flushes then the extra $240 makes its  very difficult to call profitably with the  , or  , or even  .

Like you said, the $377.50 bet is designed to fold out mostly all of villain's range including some flushes. So why would hero make the $377.50 bet again?

well, obv the villian doesnt know we are trying to make him fold if he did its pretty easy for him to call lol

THIS particular bet is deisgned to make villian fold because we have made it to the river with fk all of a hand. But in terms of our overall range if we can shove any flush + for value here and he calls with QJ then we will defo show a profit. incidently if he does call with QJ then its a loosing play regardless because we are capable of shoving a much wider value range than just the   (occosionally the  ) irrespective of whether he calls here or not.

ANYWAYS, mr. keys results pls?

Range for Hand 2 is QQ+ and AK

range for hand 1 - 99+ AQ+

not that the results really matter, but I folded, villain1 had AK and villain 2 had QQ

[  ] Range for hand two is QQ+ and AK. He has 6bbs.

yeah but why get it in with less against 2 villains when he can just shove atc next hand/orbit

whats your range as villain 2? - assuming you know the donk initial raiser isnt folding?

yeah but he's always shoving 77+ aj+ a9s+ imo.

DEFO, wider still imo because your gonna fold a % and now he has overlay can flick it in with any decent equity hand 67s etc because first shover is defo wide aswell

LETS REMEMBER WE ARE PLAYING TEN BIG BLINDS AFFECTIVE HERE GUYS!
TEN, as in 1 ore than 9 and 1 fewer than 11!!!!!

I havent been playing long [only 3-4months ] so thank you for all your views/advice, Yeh idk what i was really trying to achieve by flatting preflop or re raising and folding to a 3bet..
my gut was telling me he had AA and normally ill go against my gut and theyll flip over AA This time i went with it and got it wrong [He flipped over QQ]

a little o/t does anyone know any good books on how to play cash

No, Ive never read any good books tbh. when your playing so much deeper than you do in a tourney its really crucial to think ahead and plan as far as you can, because otherwise you get into really shit spots where your only out is a marginal call/fold/shove that is expensive and high varience.

gl

I'd want to figure out the range of hands he calls a $129.63 river bet with that he mucks to a $377.50 river bet....and if there's no discernable difference, which there isn't, I'd wonder why I'm betting $377.50.

There is definatley a difference. If he has nutz or air here then there is no difference because any hand with a heart or even most can call profitably.
If he has a range here that includes a shove for value with smaller flushes then the extra $240 makes its  very difficult to call profitably with the  , or   , or even   .

I have no idea of you image or the dynamic with this guy/your history with him, but if shove polarizes you then I dont think its a good play because i've you'r literally polarized to nuts or air he can flick a call in with virtually any heart profitably. i.e there are loads more combo's of bluffs in ur range now as you rep such a narrow value range.

If you're not polarized here, as in could feesibly be shoving for value with     etc, or a really cool merge with say the   then its definatley a much more profitable play.

Its tricky to accuratley asses a range here because he has high 3bet % in history but hasnt been 3betting at all this match (even though soon in) i spose hands like     are obv a worry, but i really dont see him 3betting any hand with the   that doesn't bet the flop? seems odd he'd  3bet   / , and really strange that any suited   combo wont bet the flop.  And on the same tune he has AK in this spot hardly even. I think the hand's he'll show up with most likely are JJ/TT/99/88 with hearts but ofc there has to a bunch of 78/98/67 combo's in there but again he isnt likely to 3ball   and not cbet the flop and the likihood of him 3balling offsuit connecter I ASSUME will be lower. And its tough to think of other heart comb o's in his range aside from the lower pairs....

In answer to OP

Pro's * -
He has only a few flushes in his range.
He doesnt have that many non-flush value hands either (aside from TT/88 etc w/ no hearts)
Its fantastic for you to have a range to shove with on these kind of boards, so if you are polarised now you wont be in the next spot
YOU HAVE NO SHOWDOWN VALUE AT ALL.
Cons * -
Ridic high varience
If you are polarised here then he could even hero you with 77+ no heart


My vote. Good idea.

live cash games house the some of the spazziest fucked up hands and thought processes of anyone anywhere in any walk of poker and for these reasons folding here is bad.

just slightly more forward planning from the hand is needed, when you c/r flop what is the intention? to value town a jack to make him spazz off or to make him fold something? If you want to play a big pot c/raise if you want to play a smaller pot c/call those are the only two options imo.

Range for Hand 2 is QQ+ and AK

range for hand 1 - 99+ AQ+


not that the results really matter, but I folded, villain1 had AK and villain 2 had QQ

im a SNG fish il admit. but hand #1 range is far wider it has to be, you open 2.5x leaving the appearance of some FE, so surely even if you fold only 10/15% of the time #1 can profitably jam 66/77/KTs etc. plus to assume he doesnt shove TT for value is flawed Im sure? as for #2 with you seemingly adding overlay surely he call off far wider knowing that #1 os shoving a range with percieved FE and there is added value if you fold? i.e he'll flick it in with 78s etc? am i wrong?

like evilpie says tho even if you have 20-25% equity vs both ranges you still should call from ICM angle? I dont know that at all its kinda of guess can someone tell me if thats right!?!?!


Its a cool spot to post tho OP because i reckon a ton of infrequent SNG guys make errors in these spots? Im sure if I was here Id call it off FAR too wide as we have seen lol

I am a nit and folded. Then busted 20 mins later!!

class lol....
Did bb sigh groans fold?
 

yeah, he was chirping chips and looking to peel with a sooted AJ. Many thanks for all the replies, att I believed it was a standard fold and when talking the hand through with a poker player buddy he said 'you what!!!'. Hence the post to get a feel for just how bad I am!!

A lot of people get fooled by the 10k starting stack and think they're playing genuine deepstack poker where folding QQ here would be a formality.

Put yourself in the £300 comp for example with the same number of chips and at the same level and you can justify passing QQ.

The difference is that there are more levels in the deepstack and the extra 15 mins per level make a huge difference. You can fold QQ and you still have time to get them back. In this comp you have to take a few chances because the blinds will catch up before you know what's happening. If oppo has you crushed you just bink and win.

All sorts of "what??" in this post. Right conclusion tho, that's what counts.

o yes. because lets not forget we're in a results business after all...

[48.373%]

in the interest of a slightly more helpful response than last time, i crunched some figurrrrrres. (gd old maths )

so ur calling 1737 to win 3597 which is pretty much bang on 2-1 so you need roughly 30% equity vs both ranges (assuming they both have the same chips.)
vs opponent 1 who is shoving 15bbs lets assume this as his range
55+,A2s+,KJs+,QJs,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,ATo+,KJo+  (this is educated guess work but roughly top 15/16% of hands)
and villian #2 will be much wider as he only has 6bigs plus the chance that you fold creates some overlay for him so lets assume his range as
22+,A2s+,K6s+,Q9s+,J8s+,T8s+,97s+,86s+,76s,65s,54s,A5o+,KJo+,QJo,JTo,T9o

  75,868,492,392  games   122.333 secs   620,180,101  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    48.373%     47.89%    00.48%       36336898592    363284498.67   { JcJd }
Hand 1:    28.346%     27.52%    00.82%       20881589168    623875997.67   { 55+, A2s+, KJs+, QJs, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, ATo+, KJo+ }
Hand 2:    23.281%     22.55%    00.73%       17111385198    551458937.67   { 22+, A2s+, K6s+, Q9s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, 54s, A5o+, KJo+, QJo, JTo, T9o }

now il redily admit not being a SNG fish, but even if you tighten up both guys ranges ul still easy have enough equity to call...obv its high varience but you wont get many better spots in a SNG to have loads of chips IMO

As has been mentioned the side pot of 1850ish vs villain #1 where you have

316,776,240  games     0.372 secs   851,549,032  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    63.785%     63.24%    00.54%         200343424      1711636.00   { JcJd }
Hand 1:    36.215%     35.67%    00.54%         113009544      1711636.00   { 55+, A2s+, KJs+, QJs, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, ATo+, KJo+ }


man i love pokerstove.

Call, hit a set and be done with it.

The sidepot makes me call here more than anything.

yes.

I would have folded,

but then I played a hand @ DTD once when I 3bet QQ vs a young guy @ 100/200 no like 950 and the old man next to me who hasnt played a single hand in the 2.5hours he's been there moves all in without dropping breath,
I sigh, fold and flips JJ and says, "its better to just take the pot down with Jacks"

Since then Iv never folded QQ to a live player ever

ud never fold qq in any form of the game dave, lets be honest

Iv folded a single queen before, but man seems pretty hard when u have two of them