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106  Poker Forums / The Rail / RIP George Weinberg on: November 28, 2018, 07:21:03 PM
Really, really sad news that George Passed away earlier this week, not sure how many of the younger guys will have heard of him/played with him but for any of us who grew up in the North playing cards/gambling George was the absolute kingpin.

I remember very clearly first time I span up a bit of money and took the big lads on in Faz's game in Leeds, George, Lawrence, Andy O'Flaherty etc, I was so intimidated and nervous, afterwards George came up to me and asked me who I was, what I was doing etc (I'm sure he had his sharky reasons too!) but we became good friends and he went out of his way on numerous occasions to try and help me as I was growing up in gambling. You could find a lot of technically better poker players but not many who have stood the test of time to the tune of nearly 50 years, and never had a losing year!! Takes a lot of discipline and work ethic to survive in gambling for that long and I always had an enormous amount of respect for that. One of the great lessons George taught me was that you always gotta know your place in gambling, if you know where you can win, where you can't win, who you can beat, and who you can't beat then you'll be ahead of 95% of the guys in gambling.

Amazing how much respect he commanded from people he's been wining money gambling from for decades, conducted himself with a lot of class and was a true gentleman at the tables, and real great bloke off them. Legend of the northern gambling scene would be an understatement, insane to think of the Monday PLO game without him.

Will be sorely missed, hope his last ever hand of poker was a winner.

R.I.P mate x
107  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Darts Betting and discussion on: November 28, 2018, 01:46:57 PM
Darts is so strong right now that you cant ever get an "easy draw" but a few people will be happier than others for sure.

MVG has drifted to as big as 11/8, 8/5 and even some 2.7 knocking about on various exchanges, certainly the first time he's ever been this long for a tournament ever, even at this i'm not a backer. His draw is ok-ish, early rounds present a real problem for MVG potentially as he's really struggled to maintain focus in these games all year and obviously puts way too much pressure on himself, Raymond Smith has a bit of class we saw it in the WSOD but as far as dangerous second round games go he's come out just fine. His Round 3 game likely Noppert or Hopp and neither of those 2 are  dreamy second round opponent, round 3 vs Lewis (who has shown glimpses of his past self of late) Barney, who cannot help but play A*** game vs MVG every time they meet, and a dangerous floater in Labanauskas. Last 16 vs Whitlock/Wade/Ratajski perhaps and then a semi (probably) vs Gary who ironed him out over a long format in wolverhampton 10 days ago, I think realistically you'd need 9/4+ before you started seriously considering a bet.

Lewis andBarney are both 66/1 kinda prices and I think you'd struggle to be too excited about them given the years they've had and the draws they have, Barney in particular has a really nasty draw. One place I think we might be able to look for some sneaky ew value is the bottom half of MVG's section, the top half of section 1 is way tougher than the bottom, Klaasen and Norris are two of the weaker seeds on paper and with MVG having a few banana skins in his path there's a non 0% chance they might swerve having to meet him. Unfortunately there isn't really too many spots, Wade is a complete non starter at 40-1, Whitlock is in good form really wanted to see 100-1 on him, I think one that might be worth a sneaky punt is Ratajski at 200/1, and 40/1 to win his 1/4 might be worth a look.

Gary has come from 6-1, 13/2 to 7/2, 100/30 over the past few weeks, even losing to MVG on sunday didnt stop him from shortening still, the format suits Gary down to the ground and he's been the best player over the year for sure, he'll be pretty pleased with his draw, Wattimena, Beaton, Webster, Van der Voort and a couple of danger floaters in Barnard and Dobey but his path the 1/4s should be relatively painless, 1/4 final vs most likely Gurney (who he has an appalling record against) who'll be full of confidence after the Players, but he has a dangerous section too, Chizzy returning to form, Jamie Lewis playing stage darts, and some really dangerous guys like Ross Smith, Paul Lim, Martin Schindler, Josh Payne. Just the fact he likely has a 1/4 vs Gurney and a semi vs MVG make 100/30 a no-go on Gary, huge odds-on to win his 1/4 and rightly so.

No - one else really stands out with any value in Q2, the top half of Q2 all face a likely Gary quarter final, MVG semi final, Gurney - like wade - is at 33s falsely after his players win, I think this is the section of the draw we're least likely to see an upset!

Q3 is much more interesting, Rob Cross, who has had a year full of inconsistency, bad luck, bad results ould have been hoping for a little rub of the green on his defending WC draw, and he hasn't got it at all. Opening against dw Zwaan who's already killed MVG on the first round of 2 majors this year and absolutely loves stage darts is exactly what he wasn't wanting, then he has Reyes/Evans who are both playing really well at the moment, then Clayton and Bunting who are both in markedly improved form, Dimitri who is a different player on this stage, and Luke Humprhies who's beat him on stage this year already and given everyone a game on the euro tours. Really horrible top half of Q3. Cross has drifted out to 20s+ and im still not interested. If you're Micheal Smith, you're looking at this thinking, man I could have a real crack at this this year. Big Ron most likely opener (dont right Portela off though) followed by a 3rd round with Hendo or Clemens not easy but shouldn't give him too many problems. Mensur on the other hand has a really dangerous little run-in, Ryan Searle since the light switch flicked on midway through the year is no-one anyone wants to play, James Wilson is in great form and that gets him in front of micheal smith, could be anyone to play in the 1/4 finals of that section, Smith form is improving, Mensur's seems to be fading. It's the kind of quarter where all the favourites might knock into each other and leave the path for a younger guy to sneak through.

Smith come in from 60s+ to start the year to as low as 14/1 now, Mensur around 20s where he is for every tournament and Dimitri come into 66s, for me, I quite like the look of Jonny Clayton at 150/1.

in Q4 Wright has found himself with the easiest run to the 1. possible under the circumstances. Cullen is a danger but Benito and King are wildly out of sorts, Mansell quite a tricky character, Jan Dekker can be dangerous and Dolan shown a decent bit of form at the players but really it's pretty soft, the top half of this quarter is way way trickier, all 4 of the seeds are in really good form (Price, Anderson, White and West) North, de Graaf and Aspinall are dangerous wildcards too. If you can come through  few tricky openers you got a match they'll all fancy vs Wright on current form and a winnable semi. Ian White available at 100/1 looks crazy long to me, he has the TV hoo-doo but he's too good to never get past the 1/4 finals forever and this has been his best year in terms of overall performance. Joe Cullen at the same price 100/1 also looks a bit tempting given how good he can be, just seems to have this gremlin for the big moments like IW.

Be interesting to see how the Ladies do, those two are not going to be pushovers by any stretch, Lisa Ashton actualy has an ok draw too, Dekker/King/Cullen/Wright could have been a lot worse. Anastasia has a tougher draw with Whitlock in round 2, both of them have very winnable openers though.

I quite like,

Small Ratajski 200/1 ew
Small Ratajski to win his 1/4 40/1
Small Jonny clayton 125/1 ew
Small Ian White 100/1
Small Joe Cullen 100/1

Roll on Roll on
108  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Darts Betting and discussion on: November 25, 2018, 09:53:45 AM
Amazing tournament so far - happy to see Price out the door after last week, don't like him at all, although i do like having him around and was kinda rooting for him to face Gary again this week Cheesy

The bottom half the draw is as we expected looks set to boil down to Gary vs MVG again, but the top half is looking very exciting - Gurney, who's had a pretty poor year by the standards he set himself last yr, really has done nothing to justify a PL return but a final here would lock it up for sure, he's highest ranked, most experienced and is the fave for the top half for sure. Chris Dobey finds himself with a great chance, a final here gets him into the top 30 which would be a great step for him as he's more than good enough to push for the top 16. Danny Noppert could rise to world #41 which in yr 1 on the PDC is really good, he has a year of no money falling from his rankings too so a great platform to have a crack at the top 16 next year. Bunting been hovering around the edge of the top 16 for a couple of years and not been able to get himself back in, he's looking in great shape here to have a go and really seems to be finding the form of his first year on the PDC where he shipped a few titles and got himself into the premier league.


Intereesting battle to not finish 16th in the official order of merit as well (and be forced to face MVG in the last 16 of the worlds the following month).  This is the last event prior to the worlds.  Jackpot/Barney/Cullen involved realistically in this battle.  Finishing 14th/15th and face out of form Snake/Cross is a big carrot for them this weekend.  Barney doesn't play this weekend and jackpot will be very keen to leapfrog him into 15th.

Yeah, looks like the honour falls to Jackpot.

14   Joe Cullen   England           £244,000
15   Johnny Clayton   Wales   £234,750
16   Adrian Lewis   England   £232,750
17   Raymond van Barneveld   £225,750
18   Stephen Bunting   England   £202,250

A  final for bunting doesn't quite get him into the top 16, were he to win it he'd leapfrog everyone to world #12 and on current standings Clayton would drop to #16 pushing Jackpot outside the top 16 again. Clayton needs to beat Gary to move ahead of Cullen, who would in turn drop to #16 if Bunting wins. If you're Cullen just just wanna see Clayton lose to Ando today, and if you're Clayton you just wanna see Bunting not win the tournament, luckily for them both this looks pretty much like whats going to happen so baring upsets, a round 3 clash with MVG beckons for Lewis.

Worlds is absolutely littered with danger early round draws anyway, Dimitri, Ratajski, de Zwaan, Meulenkamp, Dobey, Lennon are all outside the world 32 and could face anyone in round 1, if you're a guy on the periphery of the top 8 (Chizzy, Webster, White, Smith) last thing you wanna do is draw Dimitri in round 1 when at least a couple of the guys around you are set to pick up big prize money.

Looking forward to today, looks like a Gurney MVG final is the favourite, however I'm rooting for Gary vs Dobey Smiley
109  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Darts Betting and discussion on: November 20, 2018, 05:25:03 PM
agree bazza, 100%.
110  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Darts Betting and discussion on: November 19, 2018, 01:19:08 PM
Really upsetting, hate Price, love Gary...

Gary really let himself down there, totally lost his mind and no idea why he let it happen, his last throw of the game sums it up, 221 he hit S20 S20 (181 left and for reasons only he can tell you, went for T11, Price's antics are annoying, granted, but Gary is a seasoned pro and SURELY knew roughly what to expect from the game, should have just let Gerwyn do his thing and ignored it, rising to it like that was pretty rookie from a man who should know better.

Having said all that, fatigue an obvious factor, i'd say 70+% of Gary's T20 attempts went low, in a way they probably shouldn't have the 3rd biggest game of the year on a day where the players have to play back to back BO31 games.

I think you gotta give Price some credit in the fact that he endured the day at an intense level of high performance better than any other player out of the 4 semi finalists and showed quite a lot of clutch in some big moments...still I think he's a massive bellend and was rooting HARD against him with 0 money on the line.
111  Poker Forums / The Rail / Re: Staking in 2018 on: November 16, 2018, 11:49:45 AM
I think the argument about what is better EV for who is pretty moot, different sets of people have different desires from their poker experience and no-one really should be telling anyone what is best for them as it's all subjective and often boils down to preference;

Pros, mostly go where the money is, there's a £5m tournament with a load of people playing terribley, that's likely where they're gonna go - that being said some pros wouldn't take the bankroll risk/expenses ina  high variance, high EV spot, some would absolutely jump on it. Pure recreational players have a much different set of requirements, some prefer in soft games, they understand they lose vs better players and prefer to play in an enviroment where they can play with some expectation of profit/minor loss, some prefer to play against tough opposition and test themselves/enjoy the high calibre of play, and there is every different type of preference in between, from indifference to being unaware of all this and just wanting to play. The point is it's not really for any of us to say to anyone "well, this is good for you suck it up" when there is a whole host of other factors at play than the EV.

I've had conversations with Pro Poker players where I've said "you know you should really play X it's massive edge for you, i'll take a piece" and they've said, "nah not for me I'll just my own thing" and I've had same conversation with recreational players where I've said "yu know thats a very tough lineup you're likely getting murdered there" to which they've replied "yep bt who gives a fuck I'm taking them on." I've also had the same conversation about tournaments with recreational players where I've said to them (r.e some terrible play) "yeah, but you want that guy shoving on you with a gutshot" to which they've replied "I get your point, but that's just not the poker game I wanna play."

To suggest that a certain way is better for a certain people without understanding their desires for that situation is pretty arrogant an unhelpful really.

One thing I really miss is the old days of like GUKPT blackpool, you'd go there, would have this real buzz about it, everyone was there - winning it, going deep in it just felt really special and prestigious and these massive gte re-entry events just don't seem to have that, for me (as a non pro) i'd prefer that to a £1m top prize as I found it so much more fun. The scale of these poker events seems to have lost the sparkle, to me. I'd like to see a £5k at DTD with a £1m prizepool no re-entries and that old magic back - once again i'm just one guy with one opinion and respect that what matters to me doesn't matter to other people.
112  Poker Forums / The Rail / Re: Staking in 2018 on: November 09, 2018, 01:50:57 PM
How many people need to have an axe to grind before their collective axes gain sufficient credibility to no longer be classed as shills?

I mean in that thread there is loads of accounts that to me are very obviously all the same person/collection of people, hoards of brand new accounts come along all writing in the same incredibly well informed succinct manner basically all making the same point, pretty obvious whats going on there. So i would ask, if the matter truly is as much of an outrage then why do they need to regurgitate new fake accounts to build the outrage?

Then there is a few guys in there with valid points who i think actually deserve a response from Party, but they are drowned by the chaos.
113  Poker Forums / The Rail / Re: Staking in 2018 on: November 09, 2018, 01:48:08 PM
for clarity, my post was referring to why (imo) party/ppl etc didnt respond to the thread, im not saying the point of the thread is/isn't valid or somethign is or isn't going on, just the actual thread itself is wall to wall nonsense and for that reason i cant imagine party responding to it.
114  Poker Forums / The Rail / Re: Staking in 2018 on: November 09, 2018, 09:57:36 AM
The thread is kind of a joke because it's so obvious that 85% of the posts are just a collection of shills with various axes to grind, the "reporter" guy leading the investigation I spoke to him privately and he has a HUGE vendetta against party for various reasons.  I think for that reason Party aren't gonna bother themselves with it.
115  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The Apprentice 2018 thread on: November 09, 2018, 09:45:15 AM
Complete headloss episode for sure.

Think Sian, who was hottest property in our auction, has steadily lost value every week. Kayode excels in spots that involve approaching people, speaking or selling small things, but comes completely unstuck in the face of anything else and mostly just waffles.

Jasmine the best.

Regards LD
116  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The Apprentice 2018 thread on: November 08, 2018, 09:48:14 AM
Bizarre episode, was like everyone knew Kurran was for it and just sort of ambled through....

As far as quality of performances went, it was pretty horrific - I think the safety net of Kurran made eveyone switch off + was a tough task anyway.

Regards

LD
117  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Darts Betting and discussion on: November 05, 2018, 08:51:05 AM
Looks like the Wadey of old!

Two tournaments he absolutely shouldn't of won and he's shipped em both, surrounded by guys who couldn't quite get it done an wadey emerges victorious, and to be fair to him he sustained a very high level of performance which you just haven't seen for a few years, he'll be high in confidence for the Grand Slam, and his draw at the players looks ok too....

GO on Wadey.
118  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The Apprentice 2018 thread on: November 04, 2018, 10:47:13 AM
I think one of the best PM performances ever from Jackie that, she lost because her team was maybe the weakest team in history, task was basically just her and jasmine.

No idea how Kurran survived the dbl there, actually quite happy about it as looking forward to seeing the shenanigans he creates as PM. It's terrible for me as Jackie is likely to upset him at some point and Kurran will bring her back even though she's never getting sacked unless she does something truly horrific

Think Jasmine and Jackie are #1 & #2 now, Sian behind on #3. Think Sian was somewhat poor on her own standards although she did some fairly intelligent things and people seems to like working with her.
119  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Darts Betting and discussion on: October 31, 2018, 08:03:40 PM
Rankings Time!

This is the time of the year when rankings money starts to really really matter, this last weekends tournament was really quite incredible, in a way the tournament was a little disappointing that the final session was one of the lowest standard we've seen, only 1 person past the quarters managed to average over 95, but both semis went to match darts for both and there was some super exciting games in there. I really am pretty chuffed for Wadey, 2016 was a bit poor and 2017 was down right terrible he looked really gone and his top 16 spot was under severe threat. He's defending runner-up money at the grand slam so this £100k onto his ranking is desperately needed. He's for sure back in the PL with this win, and thanks to horror show in 2017 he doesnt have a lot to defend in the next 12 months bar £38k from the worlds, from the periphery of professional collapse he's now looking like a solid, solid fixture in the top 10.

Lets just have a word for Joe Cullen, on the bright side he's now into the world top 16, he's genuinely playing like one of the ten best players in the world this year and I would expect him to hold his spot in the top 16, irrespective of what might have been, its still a great step for him. Having said this he blew a serious chance at a major, on form he was the best player in the last 4 and I would have made him a favrouite vs Wade or Hopp in the final, a win there would have put him world number 7 and pretty much gtd him a place in the premier league, not to mention just making the final would have gotten him in the grand slam and a shot at that £110k top prize. There has been a few euro tour events where he's found himself with a relatively soft roll to the final and lost to someone he should have beat - it's becoming a worry for him now, if you cant hold your nerves at the majors then you're never gonna make it to the top 10 and the premier league.

Max Hopp will be also quite annoyed, a final would have got him into the top 32 and grand slam, and a win would have gotten him into the top 20, lets be honest it was a soft final four and a good few years might roll by before any of the 4 of them get a better shot at a major title.

The top of the rankings is, as we expected, as you were, the biggest missed oppurtunity at this stage will be Rob Cross, having still not managed to overtake Peter Wright despite having a massive headstart is a real mis-step, Cross needs to sort himself out, he's world #3 and his year has a PC win, a world series win and basically nothing else, next year he has about £600,000 to defend and if he doesn't start building up a buffer he's going to find himself needing a massive winter 2019 just to stay in the world top 20, he'll almost certainly over-take Peter Wright as world #2 over the next few tournaments but he looks so beatable right now. Gary had a little work to do this year to keep his #4 place in tact and he's more than done that, £175k to catch Peter Wright up is obviously going to be a huge ask, impossible without winning the worlds and maybe not even then. Gary will be happy with his year he's defending £25k at the grand slam and £6k at the players so he'll be looking to put some money on the board before he's defending £160k at Xmas. He still has over £200k buffer over 6th and £140k over Gurney in 5th, Gary is staying 4th im pretty sure.

The rest of the top 10 has a lot of wars going on. Gurney is relatively safe in #5 with £40k to defend between now and the end of the year and a £90k buffer, Wade's tenure as world #6 is likely to end at the grand slam as he has £55k to defend and only £8k above mensur. Mensur will be livid he blew his semi final at the GP as that was some much needed prize money left on the table, he has £75k between him and Gerwyn Price in #11 but Mensur is IMO the third best player in the world right now, so he should be looking at Gary in world #4, not chizzy in world #10. Micheal Smith will be really annoyed at his year, absolutely nothing in any of the majors and he has guys behind him who are really hunting him down, Chizzy finding some form again, Price turning in some good performances and at an all time high #11, Ian White finally won a stage comp and surely is a matter of time before he has a run at a major and Darren Webster is knocking on the door too. With prize money at the worlds bigger than ever, a bad show at the ally pally and world #7 can turn to world #15 in the blink of an eye.  Smith, White, Webster all defending modest prize money for the rest of the year, Webster has the biggest disadvantage as he's not yet at the grand slam and has £20k to defend at the players, Smith should be back in the PL regardless but a terrific chance for Ian White to put a run at something together and get in, time's running out though.

14th, 15th and 16th sits Adrian Lewis (£235k) Joe Cullen (£243k) Barney (£250k), Lewis in a stark contrast to last yr is defending very little over the rest of the year, under £30k, you'd expect between the players and the worlds he'd add to his ranking money from here, big issue for him not yet being at the grand slam, Clayton behind him is in there and thats going to be a worry  for Lewis. Cullen we spoke already about he is defending nothing really and on his current form should be charging towards #10, another one who won't be at the grand slam unlikely to lose his top 16 spot absent in Wolverhampton, but giving the guys he's chasing ahead of him (White, Price, Barney, Smith) a headstart for the players/worlds that he doesn't need to give. Then there is Barney... with £105k to defend between now and the worlds, hes lucky his WC performance got him into the grand slam but he's really failed to perform at any point in the year. With no titles, no finals, no run at all in any major, no real form and outside the top 16, very hard to justify a spot for Barney in the PL. His worries aren't just about his top 16 spot, if you take £105k off his ranking money he'd be #30, with the guys around him in good form and defending a lot less I think Barney could find himself cashing for £100k between now and the end of the year and STILL droppig out of the top 16. Very bad times for Barney, and with his schedule once he drops out i doubt he'll come back.

As always, the 16-32 always leaves lots of chances for a run, Max Hopp is in 33rd £100k of the top 16, he's in the grand slam and playing great, a couple of deep runs and/or a good showing at the worlds and a shot at the top 16 is not out of the question, and we know the PDC are desperate to get Max into the premier league. Steve West and James Wilson are hovering around the mid 20s but both playing very well right now, they'll need to cash for about £60k to have a realistic shot at the top 16 but with £50k up for grabs for a 1/4 final spot at the worlds its wide open. Kim Huybrechts (18th) Jelle Klaasen (22nd) Alan Norris (25th) Benito van de Pas (28th) and Robert Thornton (32nd) are all going the other way,  Benito van de Pas should be the most concerned, he's in danger of dropping out of the word 32 and not getting a spot at the worlds,  hes only won 18 games all year and added £15k onto his rankings, he's not at the players or grand slam and everyone around him is. Norris in a similar spot, luckily for him his spot at the worlds should be safe but everyone around him is making up money, Kim Huybrechts has been out of form all year and he's going to get himself embroiled in the mid 20s ranking battle if he's not careful.

There's loads of guys on the edge who are in the players and worlds capable of making something happen, Dimitri van den Bergh who will just be so annoyed he's not managed to make anything happen this year, Chris Dobey who is just waiting for a major run, Jeffrey de Zwaan who really needs to start backing these stage performances up on the floor, Ron Meulenkamp, Steve Lennon, Martin Schindler and Ricky Evans. These guys have put in good performances on stage this year and I'd be expecting to see something for at least one of them.

Interesting to see what will happen to Corey Cadby, much anticipated first year on tour started impressively with a PDC win and a final at the UK open, then he had visa trouble and went back to Aus, since then he's broken his arm in a car accident and subseuqently pulled out of the world series finals, i've no idea if he'll be at the Grand Slam the week after, and he's not going to be at the players. Seems unlikely he cant pay next week but can play the week after so I guess we'll see him at the worlds....

World Series Finals up next, no ranking money up for grabs but a great tournament, roll on the grand slam!
120  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The Apprentice 2018 thread on: October 29, 2018, 07:56:41 AM
i love a Canadian myself, Sugar though he's a grumpy old man from the streets of laaandan town, Jackie got a whiny american sounding accent and likely to be in the boardroom a fair bit, i reckon the old geezer might just flip and decide 'grrr had it with this american sounding women'

Regards (and no offence to Canadians!)

LD
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