Latest posts of: edgascoigne

Cross post from my daily City-based bulletin....

Calling all brokers, bookmakers, City money-makers.

It's time for the hotly-anticipated (nonsense, but it sounds good) preview of the first day of the Cheltenham Festival. Any man and his dog could tip up Min/Douvan/Annie Power but I'll be looking for a bit of value amongst some of the longer priced runners. Obviously none of the following constitutes regulatory advice, nor benefits from the St. James's Place Guarantee...

1330 - Supreme Novice Hurdle

A clear favourite in Min, and as always there'll be a bucketload of Irish come over for the week that will either be cockahoop or absolutely skinto after the first race given the build up this horse has had. I'll never forget Dunguib getting turned over in the same race, however, and some of the Irish heading for the turnstiles - there's a whole week of racing chaps...stake accordingly.

More recent history has seen Mullins/Walsh/Ricci combine to great effect but that's probably in the price. If anyone pushes Min to 3/1 then he's a bet, but at the 2/1-9/4 mark I think he can be left alone.

The atmosphere at Cheltenham ahead of the first race is pretty electric and it can prove a lot for a novice to cope with - many leave their race behind at the start. One contender who should have no such difficulties is Silver Concorde available at 16/1. Dermot Weld's charge won the Champion Bumper in 2014 and brings the experience of an 8yo to the track. Davy Russell rides and is tough as they come, and I fancy this one to make the frame at a price. Either back it each-way or in the "without Min" market.

1410 - The Arkle

Douvan is a monster, and will win. He's very short however (4/11 best price) so unless you've an iron constitution it might be worth looking at intelligent alternatives.

Bettered go 9/4 Sizing John in the 'without Douvan' market, which is frankly an embarrassing piece of bookmaking. Henry de Bromhead's horse sports the same silks as erstwhile Champion Chase hero Sizing Europe and, whilst he may not be quite the horse just yet, he's been shaping well. He's got used to finishing second to Douvan when the pair meet, and I fancy the same outcome today.

1450 - Ultima Handicap Chase

Now we're getting into it. A proper big field handicap. None of this top-grade nonsense, let's try to work out who's plotted up what.

Neil Mulholland is very shrewd indeed and runs The Young Master and Carol's Destrier, both of whom have chances. The former had a prep run in the Cleeve Hurdle in 'orrible ground that won't have suited, and this is the same prep route that Mulholland took with last year's winner The Druid's Nephew. TDN had big, bad Barry Geraghty up top, however, whilst The Young Master must make do with 'spaghetti-arms' Sam Waley-Cohen.

Looking for alternatives, I like three against the field: Southfield Theatre, Indian Castle and Band of Blood, all around the 20-25/1 mark. You should also be able to get 1/4 the odds 5 places on each way bets which is a very handy concession indeed.

Southfield Theatre has been pretty highly tried and, in my opinion, patently not right in his two engagements this season. Nicholls is nobody's fool, however, and one of the stable lads tweeted a photo of Southfield Theatre looking an absolute picture a few days back. 2nd in the Pertemps and 3rd in this race a couple of years back he loves the track and the drying ground.

Indian Castle runs for punting owners, and I can't get the niggling doubt of a Son of Flicka-sequel coup out of my mind. This wouldn't be Ian Williams' first rodeo, and this horse was beat 5l into 4th in this race last year off 139. He runs today off 134.....go figure.

Band of Blood runs for the oh-so-canny-butter-wouldn't-melt-I'm-a-doctor-don't-you-know Dr Richard Newland, who has been known to plot one up on occasion. I've been given this by a connection who once got warned off the racecourse, so I'm largely backing the man rather than any deeper knowledge, but when this chap tells you to back something it's worth an interest.

1530 - Champion Hurdle

The day's big race and a favourite that's been taking a walk in the betting since she was supplemented. Annie Power will be best known to casual racing fans as "that horse that feel at the final flight when I stood to win a massive fourfold", but she is certainly a great mare. This is different however and, whilst she gets a 7lb mares' allowance, she didn't figure in Mullins' plans for the race before everything started to go a bit wrong.

I've no strong opinion in the race so am wavering over a 'no-bet', but this is Cheltenham and that would be terribly dull. Camping Ground could look a massive price having hacked all over everything in the Relkeel Hurdle but I'm not convinced this is the best of his ground. Identity Thief seems to be the each-way bet the Irish are starting to talk up, principally as they believe the better ground will suit and that Nichols Canyon bottomed himself out seeing this one away in the Ryanair at Leopardstown.

My Tent or Yours can be had (just about) at a double digit price, and in what looks a relatively weak renewal I think is worth a few shekels. 'Chemical' Nicky Henderson has got previous for disappointing when expected, and popping up with forgotten horses, see the 1000/1 Binocular coup, and if MTOY is back anywhere near his best he'd have half a chance. Back win only as he'll either be bang there or pulled up, and keep stakes sensible...

1610 - Mares' Hurdle

Vroum Vroum Mag looks something a bit special and a shade of odds against could prove fair. I wouldn't dissuade you from doubling VVM and Douvan for a 15/8 double.

Polly Peachum is the best of the rest and a knocking each-way bet lest the favourite disappoints. Make sure you're getting 1/4 the odds and you'll have the best of it at 6/1+.

1650 - The 4 miler

You can study the form all you want in this one, but if your pilot is a lot worse than the other pilots its a bit like bringing a knife to a gun fight. Imagine being an amateur jock and picking up a ride in this - you'd be petrified/over the moon/flooded with adrenaline. Not exactly ideal preparation over the marathon trip.

Jamie Codd is about as cool a customer as you'll find at this level, rides at the back and waits to pick off the runners one by one. He'll settle Noble Endeavour out the back and away from trouble and make his play late. Beaten only by Killultagh Vic in the Martin Pipe last year the horse likes Cheltenham, and could be VERY fairly weighted off 140. Gordon Elliot isn't one to misjudge the trip his horses need (when the money is down) and whilst JP's horse Minella Rocco will likely be gambled this just props up the price of Noble Endeavour. Bet win only.

1730 - Novices Handicap Chase

A slightly stupid race that revolves around trainers trying to land their novices a mark between 135-140 and then putting them away less they ruin their chances of getting in with a good performance.

Katgary hasn't been overly popular in the markets overnight but this is probably because it's Nicholls' second string behind Bouvreuil who has more obvious claims. Quite how the handicapper can feel comfortable assessing Katgary I'm not too sure, but I'd imagine Nicholls is pretty content with the mark given he's not been seen since last of three in Doncaster in December. Graham Wylie bought the horse to make a chaser, but he still managed a 3/4 length second in the Fred Winter a couple of years back. At a big price you can take an each way chance, and Betfair offer an extra place, paying 5.