GL to Chris

Dai Greene looks a big price for the 400m hurdles tonight.  He was tipped on here for SPOTY not long ago.  I think there has been too big a reaction to his near failure to qualify.

I haven't seen the draw and he could get a bad one, but still think he is worth a swift 20 or so at 12/1 with bet365/12.5 on betfair.  Crowd going to lift him blah blah

To discuss this, I just read, '"I was going down the home straight and couldn't catch them," Greene told BBC Sport. "I don't know what happened, I wasn't there. I'm devastated. I'm shocked and feel like I've let everyone down." '

Would feel better backing him if he knew what the problem was. 13.5 now on BF though.

Looks like some people got matched at massive prices (£34 at 90, 200ish at 48), some clever people knowing that he might still qualify with the fastest loser time ripping off the money-buyers

I think he was saying that the overs should come in, but mentioning that caution is recommended as Baxter has been known to let his head go down vs Taylor in the past?

Though if it does turn into a massacre that's good for the bet...

I'm a bit confused as well.

Looks to me like he averaged 95.4 in his last match against Van De Voort, which he won 10-5

[White over 92.5]

Been away from this thread for a while, but very nice to see it still going strong.

Just a reminder to get on a bet that I remember Dubai recommending a while back; Taylor is playing White in the Darts tonight, and you can back White over 92.5 at 1.9ish (I've searched Oddschecker and Easyodds, you can get 5/6 with BetFred or 1.9 with Betfair [better to use Fixed Odds section to get a bet on]).

As Dubai pointed out before to us, people who play against Taylor generally have a higher-than-their-average average, as they generally have fewer shots at doubles. I have to admit I don't know a whole lot about White, but he looked impressive in the last game that I watched him, especially on checkouts. If somehow he manages to push Taylor in this match I can't see him averaging under 93, but if he's blown away, as expected, he should have few enough chances on doubles for the bet to come in.

This bet worked beautifully for the thread originally, hope some people here can make some profit out of it again.

EDIT: Just noticed that the BetFred price quoted 5/6 is for over 93.5's, obv better to go with Betfair's 92.5's at 1.9. Would definately suggest going for the BF sportsbook rather than exchange, as you'll struggle with the current strength of the market to get a bet on.

I'd suggest caution in the SPOTY market this year- I did a fair bit of research for last years and in the end Cavendish blew everyone away. I don't think he warrented anywhere near the amount of votes he eventually got. The year before also saw a runaway winner in McCoy, a more worthy victor than Cav in my opinion, but still it was a landslide.

I'm starting to think that the SPOTY market is driven by a force other than your average living-room voter; I'm just going to wait to see who emerges as favourite and go with that if I get involved at all.

Grannies price collapse, now 3.8. They couldn't flip flop could they?

Looks like it just might-

Edit: Stabilised now, back to Sweden odds on and Russia

Malta, Estonia and Italy for top 10 please

Some 'interesting' acts so far!!

I have very little knowledge of this year's acts, but I've been told to look for Italy to drop in price straight after their act, currently 19.5, also told that France very overpriced at 400's!

Anyone seen these acts and have an opinion?

Emile Heskey has left Aston Villa. He is 34 and wants to carry on playing

Skybet have put up a market about where he might want to go

Heskey started his careeer at Leicester, I saw his debut in 1994 as a 17 year old and he played for over 5 seasons before moving to Liverpool

When Leicester went into administration in 2003, Heskey donated significant sums of money towards a group looking to take over the club

In 2006 he took part in the traditional end of season charity run around the ground, wearing Leicester kit



Before he joined Villa he was questioned about would he go back to Leicester. He replied

"Yes, but not yet" This was in 2009


SkyBet price Leicester at 8/1 as his next destination. He's shorter than that. Informed Journalists locally have been mentioning his name for weeks

Might he attract interest from premiership teams? I doubt it. He suffered an inury last Auust that meant he missed most of the season, scoring only one goal. Martin O'Neill "made" Heskey but I don't think he'd get near the Sunderland first team, or Stoke for that matter. Or Wigan if Martinez stays

He is most likely destined for the Championship

For Leicester, Beckford is leaving and two other squad strikers Howard and Vassell have left.

Heskey is worth millions, but if it were to come down to money our owners are wealthy and stupid, Its not an obstacle, whereas it might be for some other teams in the division


http://www.skybet.com/football/specials/transfer-specials

Recommend a small £20 at 8-1

Point very nicely made, really good post, but I just checked and it's showing 3/1 now?

Cheers, appreciate that- Taylor play poor?

Inconsistant... at times looked very average, but took out some big finishes, including a 149 near the end, to turn things around. The final might actually have some life in it...

I read back quite a few pages, but can't find anything suggested for this game yet, so thought I'd suggest an idea for a bet.

I think there could be goals galore in the Chelsea vs Blackburn game tomorrow. Blackburn are a ghost team now, I honestly can't see them turning up to the game. Chelsea will want to finish the league season on a high to give them momentum heading in to the final next saturday. There may be a few players rested, but I actually think that's good for the bet; the likes of Sturridge if they get a chance ought to be keen to impress. Paul Robinson and David Dunn are doubts for Blackburn, two of the few players who it seemed to me actually gave their all towards the end of the season.

I do think there's a big chance that the Blackburn defence will just collapse tomorrow, but if we're being hopeful we can perhaps hope for a goal or two at the other end as well; Cahill and Luiz are both out, as is the defensive-minded Obi Mikel, perhaps Yakubu, Hoilett or Pederson might be able to break through.

I think a good bet would be Over 4.5 goals. If you're feeling adventurous you can even look at the 5.5's; I personally have done up to 6.5's just in case. I had a look around and currently the biggest price is Betfair's 11/4 for the 4.5's, you can get around 6/1 on 5.5's.

Obviously bet whatever you see fit, but if you were to put £50 on it, I'd suggest splitting the bet £40 on the 4.5's and £10 on the 5.5's.


Counter-opinions welcome as always if anyone thinks I'm missing something.

[I actually thought Liverpool might have been a bet at 6/4+]

not laughing at all

you put your opinion up pre event which always means this could happen

ul

Appreciate that, ty. Still trying to work out if my thinking about the match was utterly wrong, or if i've been hit by variance. Tilt-regged for a couple of SCOOP events. I've got a long way to go as a Sports-gambler methinks .

I was going to post on this but didn't want to be negative aftertime and only saw the post after it was 3-0. I think if it was a normal season game your thinking was spot on.....they should have been 7/4 shots on the basis of their form in that kind of game but the combination of the revenge factor from the cup final and the fact that Chelsea really can't afford to lose any more players for the CL final meant they had very different motivation levels. I actually thought Liverpool might have been a bet at 6/4+ but thought they were too short at the prices quoted but not sure it is one of those spots where I couldn't back the other team with counterfeit.

I initially had similar thoughts, then got caught up by the price and ended up laying it. My original post said 'I think the price is too short but I'm not getting involved, then it fell more so I put the bet on, edited my post and forgot all my original thoughts. Oh well, you live and learn.

And I'm still in the small SCOOP event that I regged for in frustration above. Who needs sleep anyway? Camel was on my last table for the last 3 hrs or so, I should have said hi really. Lets try to avoid the old, 'staying up all night for a $50 cash'.

not laughing at all

you put your opinion up pre event which always means this could happen

ul

Appreciate that, ty. Still trying to work out if my thinking about the match was utterly wrong, or if i've been hit by variance. Tilt-regged for a couple of SCOOP events. I've got a long way to go as a Sports-gambler methinks .

Yes, I'm laughing at myself just as hard as you're laughing at me. 3-0 halftime.