3 handed bubble bully

[TightPaulFolds]

I love 6 seater Sit n Go's and I love being the bubble big stack, especially when you get the chips together to be the bully. I'm not sure of the maths but I guess you're the bully roughly when you're 3000 chips vs 2x1500 with moderate blinds. I was in this situation today and got it up to 4000 vs 2x1000 with a large time investment, over an hour. Blinds are 75-150 and I've clearly shifted slightly into moderate theft mode, small stacks biting back a couple of times. I'm ready to go on the big blind with    , button is out and small blind moves all in for 1000. I know I'm likely 5050 maybe better and can zonk him right there.
The problem is, that they 'get it', ie they know I'm the big stack, we've hit the bubble, so bullying works very well on them, I've chipped away plenty from button thefts. They are almost ready to each try outlasting the other small stack just to limp into 2nd ($95). If my aggressor in this hand doubles up here that bullying is mostly gone, he's out of danger and before you know it we're back in a 3 horse race. Even if I beat him with A9, I'm up against the other player with 1000 chips heads up, and really anything can happen with luck on his side, a couple of double ups and he's level. He's now in the money so it's do or die. The alternative is to fold my A9, get back to bullying, and try bringing them down to 600 is chips each.
Do you ever fold what is probably ahead preflop here just to keep it 3-handed?

[doubleup]

I love 6 seater Sit n Go's and I love being the bubble big stack, especially when you get the chips together to be the bully. I'm not sure of the maths but I guess you're the bully roughly when you're 3000 chips vs 2x1500 with moderate blinds. I was in this situation today and got it up to 4000 vs 2x1000 with a large time investment, over an hour. Blinds are 75-150 and I've clearly shifted slightly into moderate theft mode, small stacks biting back a couple of times. I'm ready to go on the big blind with    , button is out and small blind moves all in for 1000. I know I'm likely 5050 maybe better and can zonk him right there.
The problem is, that they 'get it', ie they know I'm the big stack, we've hit the bubble, so bullying works very well on them, I've chipped away plenty from button thefts. They are almost ready to each try outlasting the other small stack just to limp into 2nd ($95). If my aggressor in this hand doubles up here that bullying is mostly gone, he's out of danger and before you know it we're back in a 3 horse race. Even if I beat him with A9, I'm up against the other player with 1000 chips heads up, and really anything can happen with luck on his side, a couple of double ups and he's level. He's now in the money so it's do or die. The alternative is to fold my A9, get back to bullying, and try bringing them down to 600 is chips each.
Do you ever fold what is probably ahead preflop here just to keep it 3-handed?

From my experience of this situation, this is an easy fold.  You really cant expect to have a big advantage here very often.  You give up your dominant position when you lose and don't gain a huge amount of additional equity when you win.  Most of that goes to the other small stack.

[maldini32]

wot your saying sklansky advocates in some spots...ie mtt's not too sure about stts. I remember reading in tournament poker, how sometimes its better to pass a pair of queens to a shorties push jus so u can continue wit your bullying rampage. Pass the a 9 and carry on nicking.

[boldie]

yeah easy fold for me

[kano]

This can be solved as a maths problem, try putting him on a range of hands he would push with.

Assuming it is a 75/25 payout structure

if he pushes 10% (55+,ATo+,A8s+,KQs) of hands  = -0.7% EV by calling
if he pushes 20% (33+,A4o+,A2s+,KJo+,KTs+) of hands = +0.5% EV by calling
if he pushes 30% (22+,A2+,K8o+,K4s+,QTo+,Q9s+,JTs) of hands = +0.9% EV by calling


As a rule of thumb, +0.5% EV should be your minumum edge. So considr a range for him and by looking at the maths you should get the correct answer.

I may expand on this later, If i have time.