Final table donkament hand, WWUD?

[dino1980]

We currently have an M of 18.8 and we’re chip leader with 8 remaining at the final table, top 3pay something like 1350/850/600 8th pays 140.

This is the only table I have open and have been concentrating since 5 tables out so have a good line on most players tendencies.

We don’t really like our table draw at all. The most winningest player at the table (besides ourselves) is neverwright he’s to our right but is in shove fold mode so we’re not too concerned about him yet. So far so good, but directly to my left are 1stAir and the next ‘best’ player Petit. These are both savvy and tricky and prone to re-pop late position steals and as such have been constricting our late positions steals somewhat, both at the final table and from two tables out. MccClaud (three to our left and villain in this hand) is fairly chipped up and is someone I’ve labelled ‘rich donk’ he has an average buy-in of $70 (4x higher than this tourney) and an roi of -70%. Whilst it’s possible he’s a cash stud, he aint in tournaments. He re-popped us a couple of orbits ago when we open for 6k with K-Q and he moved in for 33 total and we folded. He has since knocked a player out to chip up.

The rest of the table is made up of three players with whom I’ve only played with at the final table. From looking on OPR Ziuler and Don Toni are terribad, Jdawg is breakeven. In short we have mostly big stacks and good players to our left and mostly bad players and shorter stacks to our right. Meh.

Then this hand came up

*********** # 267 **************
PokerStars Game #15064947653: Tournament #76066926, $15.00+$1.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level XV (1500/3000) - 2008/02/04 - 21:05:33 (ET)
Table '76066926 19' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 2: ziuler (28495 in chips)
Seat 3: Jdawg1143 (48390 in chips)
Seat 4: don_toni222 (86776 in chips)
Seat 5: neverwright (38380 in chips)
Seat 6: dino1980 (124298 in chips)
Seat 7: 1stAir (95446 in chips)
Seat 8: Petit (44005 in chips)
Seat 9: MccClaud (74210 in chips)
ziuler: posts the ante 300
Jdawg1143: posts the ante 300
don_toni222: posts the ante 300
neverwright: posts the ante 300
dino1980: posts the ante 300
1stAir: posts the ante 300
Petit: posts the ante 300
MccClaud: posts the ante 300
Petit: posts small blind 1500
MccClaud: posts big blind 3000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to dino1980 [ ]
ziuler: folds
Jdawg1143: folds
don_toni222: folds
neverwright: folds
dino1980: raises 6000 to 9000
1stAir: folds
Petit: folds
MccClaud: raises 64910 to 73910 and is all-in
dino1980: ??

If we call and win we have 207208 (out of 540,000 and IMO a lock to make top 3 where a potential deal may be discussed)
If we call and lose we have 50088 and will be 5/8 with about an M of 7.5
If we fold we have 118298 and are 1/8 with an M of 17.9
I think this guy moves in fairly wide here: QQ-55 A-9s+ K-Qs, A-Jo+ K-Qo - i've discounted A-A and K-K as I'm fairly sure he doesn't shove them in this spot.
Against that range we’re 44% (anyone think i'm way off on the ranges?)

Assume we never fold:
So roughly 4.5/10 times we gain 82910 (373095)
And 5.5/10 times we lose 68210 (375155)

And if I’ve done my sums right we make a loss of 2060 every time we make the play. Of course if we fold we know that we make a net loss of 9000.

So it seems calling is correct (my math could be way off), but I still lean towards a fold in spots like this (perhaps because at best we're flipping), even though I know top three is where the money is at.

Taking everything into account what do you do in this spot? Does anyone think this is clearcut?

Also if this is a fold (which I think it is) how much deeper/shorter do you need to be to make this a call?

[Graham C]

I'd fold.  It's your tournament you are calling for here and I'd like to have more than pocket 6's to be going all in with against someone that can do real damage.

[LeKnave]

fold. u dnt need to flip for tht big a pot. just bleed them away.

[Longy]

I just go with the maths personally.

Don't use the 9000 as a loss in this hand, its not your money anymore once you raised, its the pots.

So looking at the maths slightly different pokerstove gives your equity to be 42.8% against the perceived range, which i think looks reasonable given the read.

Pot = 6900 + 9000 + 73910 = 89810

64910 more to call. 89810/64910= 1.38 to 1 pot odds. Which low and behold = 42% equity required.

Its virtually neutral EV, now we are talking about how ICM and long term edge comes into things. I probably pass it sounds like your edge is big enough to pass a very very marginal spot.

[the sicilian]

fold all day long...much better spots to get ur money in

[MANTIS01]

Posted by: dino1980

Taking everything into account what do you do in this spot?

The maths gets this decision to 42% and I respect that. If the question related to this hand in compete isolation then the answer couldn't be debated for a second. But this is a tournament....and other factors need to be considered. The danger players are to your left. You have already been re-popped for fun. So when is this going to stop? With your image and power at stake here I personally wouldn't have raised if I wasn't prepared to call this bet. Would you have raised with 7-2 in this spot? If you call and win here you will be a lock because nobody wil f*ck with you again without a hand. But if you fold you wont be able to raise without a hand yourself. Your power to win this comes from a combination of image + chips....not just chips. This is why I don't favour the pure maths approach...it only deals with chips.

dino, I think your op is an excellent one and shows a heightened degree of awareness of all the necessary factors. But what about self image? I think betting into serial re-raisers who have pushed you off hands before isn't a good idea unless you have a hand to call a bet like this.

The question is, are the image rights worth that extra 8%?

Raising because you have 6's and folding because of the chips you may loose doesn't really deal with the complexity of the SITUATION you are facing.....that's why 42% isn't the definitive answer!

[boldie]

Its virtually neutral EV, now we are talking about how ICM and long term edge comes into things. I probably pass it sounds like your edge is big enough to pass a very very marginal spot.

This is it for me.

[GlasgowBandit]

2% isn't the definitive answer!

I thought 42 was the answer to life, everything and the universe?

So its an insta call for me

[LuckyLloyd]

I'd fold this. Also, I would be opening for 7800 as standard at this blind level - particularly if the dudes to my left can play.