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Where am I going wrong with this horse double?
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Topic: Where am I going wrong with this horse double? (Read 1985 times)
Hairydude
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Where am I going wrong with this horse double?
«
on:
March 29, 2012, 08:16:00 PM »
Slight brag but basically got an email yesterday saying bet £25 get a free £25 with ladbrokes yesterday as hadnt used them in ages; with 10 minutes to go bet £25 on Barca game to be a draw at 1/2; withdrew £30 and left £7.50 in + now have free £25 bet.
Today Studied(ahem) todays racing and decided on a double; Kings Chorister at 9/2 and Tartan tiger at 7/2
Put full £7.50 on double then free £25 bet on double too.
My first question is what constitutes the SP price(when does it kick in); a few times on laddies I have had returns where the settled price looks different to the SP but its probably me just being stupid. This time Kings Chorister had drifted to 6/1 when the rope was still up and the race hadnt started, stayed at this price for about 30 seconds and when the rope was dropped and they started was still at 6/1. I took a screen print of this below. So why has it been settled at 11/2 when its best odds guaranteed?
The 2nd question is how do I find out if there is a rule 4(or whatever) as have seen some non-runners in the races but cant see any discount rules in the results?
Basically when I logged in there was £820 in account(thin I know)
even with Kings chorister at 11/2: I was expecting: £7.50 x 10/3 x 11/2 = £211 + (£25 x 10/3 x 11/2) - £25 = £679 = £889?
Sorry prob a duh question; i'm guessing there was some kind of discounted rule for non runners for the other £69 thats missing?
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Families is where our nation finds hope, where wings take dream
horseplayer
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Re: Where am I going wrong with this horse double?
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Reply #1 on:
March 29, 2012, 08:30:37 PM »
firstly very well done on your winners.
re kings choristar heres the official weighed in comments "held up in rear, smooth headway 3 out, chased leaders next, ridden to challenge last, ran on to lead closing stages opened 5/1 touched 6/1 sp 11-2
"
the times you have had different returns to the sp must have been when you took a price on a horse and the horse changed in price and you received best odds guaranteed.
The sp is generated on the off so this horse must have shortened a little pre race, from memory the horse was fairly strong on betfair in the seconds before the race.
"The 2nd question is how do I find out if there is a rule 4(or whatever) as have seen some non-runners in the races but cant see any discount rules in the results?"
there were three non runners in the last "Non-Runners
NR Trojan Gift (USA) 11-12 B Toomey (3) Miss J A Camacho 5
NR Browneyes Blue (IRE) 11-2 Brian Harding James Moffatt 14
NR Heather Glen (IRE) 10-11 S Byrne (3) Mrs S J Smith 6
"
i am not sure when these were withdrawn but these must have something to do with the rule 4
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doubleup
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Re: Where am I going wrong with this horse double?
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Reply #2 on:
March 30, 2012, 10:18:09 AM »
Best odds guaranteed means the greater of the price you took or sp, not the highest price ever.
The withdrawn horse(s) must've been still in the field when you took the price, so a rule 4 gets deducted. It just doesn't appear in the results as they only publish it when the withdrawal is very late and the market hasn't had a chance to adjust.
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Hairydude
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Re: Where am I going wrong with this horse double?
«
Reply #3 on:
March 30, 2012, 11:01:21 AM »
Quote from: doubleup on March 30, 2012, 10:18:09 AM
Best odds guaranteed means the greater of the price you took or sp, not the highest price ever.
The withdrawn horse(s) must've been still in the field when you took the price, so a rule 4 gets deducted. It just doesn't appear in the results as they only publish it when the withdrawal is very late and the market hasn't had a chance to adjust.
I'm aware of that but the price on the off seemed to be 6/1 not 11/2; as the picture shows! 30 seconds up until the race started it was 6/1, they walk up to the rope; it gets dropped so they start racing; price still 6/1, which I thought was the SP?
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vegaslover
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Re: Where am I going wrong with this horse double?
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Reply #4 on:
March 30, 2012, 11:09:41 AM »
SP often gets adjusted after the race has started. System just doesn't update quickly enough as race starts, especially the Tote
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tikay
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Re: Where am I going wrong with this horse double?
«
Reply #5 on:
March 30, 2012, 11:12:44 AM »
Quote from: Hairydude on March 30, 2012, 11:01:21 AM
Quote from: doubleup on March 30, 2012, 10:18:09 AM
Best odds guaranteed means the greater of the price you took or sp, not the highest price ever.
The withdrawn horse(s) must've been still in the field when you took the price, so a rule 4 gets deducted. It just doesn't appear in the results as they only publish it when the withdrawal is very late and the market hasn't had a chance to adjust.
I'm aware of that but the price on the off seemed to be 6/1 not 11/2; as the picture shows!
30 seconds up until the race started it was 6/1, they walk up to the rope; it gets dropped so they start racing; price still 6/1, which I thought was the SP?
No, that is incorrect.
SP's are calculated in a very odd & old-fashioned way, plus, there is bound to be comms delay between the price being decided, & relaying that info to broadcasters.
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Hairydude
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Re: Where am I going wrong with this horse double?
«
Reply #6 on:
March 30, 2012, 12:53:34 PM »
Quote from: tikay on March 30, 2012, 11:12:44 AM
Quote from: Hairydude on March 30, 2012, 11:01:21 AM
Quote from: doubleup on March 30, 2012, 10:18:09 AM
Best odds guaranteed means the greater of the price you took or sp, not the highest price ever.
The withdrawn horse(s) must've been still in the field when you took the price, so a rule 4 gets deducted. It just doesn't appear in the results as they only publish it when the withdrawal is very late and the market hasn't had a chance to adjust.
I'm aware of that but the price on the off seemed to be 6/1 not 11/2; as the picture shows!
30 seconds up until the race started it was 6/1, they walk up to the rope; it gets dropped so they start racing; price still 6/1, which I thought was the SP?
No, that is incorrect.
SP's are calculated in a very odd & old-fashioned way, plus, there is bound to be comms delay between the price being decided, & relaying that info to broadcasters.
cheers tikay i knew i must have it incorrect somewhere.... saves me embarrasement of complaining to laddies :-)
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Families is where our nation finds hope, where wings take dream
tikay
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Re: Where am I going wrong with this horse double?
«
Reply #7 on:
March 30, 2012, 12:57:47 PM »
Quote from: Hairydude on March 30, 2012, 12:53:34 PM
Quote from: tikay on March 30, 2012, 11:12:44 AM
Quote from: Hairydude on March 30, 2012, 11:01:21 AM
Quote from: doubleup on March 30, 2012, 10:18:09 AM
Best odds guaranteed means the greater of the price you took or sp, not the highest price ever.
The withdrawn horse(s) must've been still in the field when you took the price, so a rule 4 gets deducted. It just doesn't appear in the results as they only publish it when the withdrawal is very late and the market hasn't had a chance to adjust.
I'm aware of that but the price on the off seemed to be 6/1 not 11/2; as the picture shows!
30 seconds up until the race started it was 6/1, they walk up to the rope; it gets dropped so they start racing; price still 6/1, which I thought was the SP?
No, that is incorrect.
SP's are calculated in a very odd & old-fashioned way, plus, there is bound to be comms delay between the price being decided, & relaying that info to broadcasters.
cheers tikay i knew i must have it incorrect somewhere.... saves me embarrasement of complaining to laddies :-)
This may help.....
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starting_price
Basically, they "average" all the available prices at the track at the moment the race begins. The system is widely abused, of course, as bookies can send a lump of money to the track at the last moment to move prices in their favour, & as most on-course markets are paper thin, so it does not take much to move prices. Or that used to be the case, when I was a punter. Now, I have no idea.
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All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link -
http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY
(copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016).
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