400NL Rush: Hero call

[Honeybadger]

MP is an aggressive regular who likes to fight for pots (WWSF = 60%). CO is a very weak player.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00 BB (6 handed)

MP ($410)
CO ($963.80)
Button ($400)
Hero (SB) ($402)
BB ($400)
UTG ($400)

Preflop: Hero is SB with  ,
1 fold, MP bets $12, CO calls $12, 1 fold, Hero raises to $42, 1 fold, MP calls $30, CO calls $30

Flop: ($130) , , (3 players)
Hero bets $88, MP raises to $368 (All-In), 1 fold, Hero calls $272 (All-In)

Sigh that I have the in my hand, but I still decided to call. Thoughts?

[AlexMartin]

reallly dislike it, blocking the bulk of his semibluffs sucks, he jammed with the rec still to act 3way in a spot where you are likely not cbetting light.

[Honeybadger]

My in-game thoughts were that villain's flop jam does not make sense with the majority of his value range, for two reasons:

1. It is a 3bet pot and so he does not need to raise to get stacks in by the river.
2. He should not want to force the very weak player in the CO out of the pot.

It felt to me like the only value hands villain might want to jam with are AT (3 combos assuming he does not flat the 3bet with ATo) and perhaps QQ-JJ if he has flatted them preflop to keep the CO in the pot. (A slowplayed preflop) AA-KK do not need as much protection as QQ-JJ, especially since they can easily get all-in on the turn given the SPR. Maybe he has some combos of Tsxs that he might - probably incorrectly - decide to jam with too. But is he really calling my big 3bet preflop with something like JsTs?

Moreover, jamming AT is very thin IMO.

He definitely should not be jamming with his sets here.

On the one hand, I have the As in my hand which substantially reduces his combos of semi-bluffs. But on the other hand, his value range to jam is so narrow...

[AlexMartin]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

  41,095,296  games     0.018 secs     2,283,071,999  games/sec

Board:
Dead:  

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    52.132%     51.85%    00.28%          21307244       116497.50   { AsQh }
Hand 1:    47.868%     47.58%    00.28%          19555057       116497.50   { AdAs, AhAs, KdKs, KhKs, QdQs, QhQs, JdJs, JhJs, TcTd, TdTs, 7c7d, 4c4d, 4c4h, QsJs, QsTs, JsTs, Js9s, Ts9s, Ts8s, 98s, 65s }

this is a pretty good reflection of his range imo, no purebluffs, discounted slowplays and discounted sets.

turns out b/c is fine/good.


And the rosier version for those who think he's unbalanced.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

  27,396,864  games     0.010 secs     2,739,686,400  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    58.825%     58.53%    00.30%          16035270        80921.50   { AsQh }
Hand 1:    41.175%     40.88%    00.30%          11199751        80921.50   { JdJs, JhJs, QsJs, QsTs, JsTs, Js9s, Ts9s, Ts8s, 98s, 65s }


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