Bottom set, 3 handed against a tricky opponent

[Nem]

I have been playing pretty Loose aggressive short handed. Villain is one of the stronger players at this level and has a VP$IP of 21%.


Full Tilt 2/4NL

Stacks
Hero: $1431
SB: $398
BB (Villain): $1591

Pre-flop:I make it $18 to go with     SB Calls, BB (Villain) Calls

Flop (54): SB Goes all-in for $380?!!?, Villain I-Calls $380, Hero...?

[booder]

push

[kinboshi]

It's the flop that you want, ooh ooh ooh.

Push it real good....

[byronkincaid]

will a strong tricky opponent stack off 350 BBs with less than bottom set? this is not an easy hand. i voted fold but i dunno wtf I woulda done TBH. does he flat call pre flop with AA or KK against 2 people? I-Call = insta call right? wtf does he call with here without having to think about it for even a couple of seconds? 2 pair is unlikely, OESD he's gotta at least think about if not insta fold. A lot of evidence is pointing to a set here imo.

[totalise]

zero chance he has OESD, 2 pr is possible given stack depth(but unlikely), so its pretty much in the realm of set or misclick. Its not just the fact that hes putting in 350bb, its the fact that hes putting that much into a pot when the SB has open pushed $380 into a $54 pot. Given that he is a good player (and the best 2/4 players are real good).. this has to be 66/99 a high % of the time. Maybe a badly played overpair, but its not gonna be that very often. Frequencies.

You can of course beat a mis-click though, so theres always that to cling to

I'd fold as much because of the $380 immediate as the $1000 behind that you have to deal with, if you get your stack in the middle here and get a call, you are drawing to 1 out pretty much 100% of the time.

[The Baron]

That's a fold for me.

As Totalise says it's the 1k you have behind that's the issue here and more often than not it's an overset.