1 Question

[snoopy1239]

True, but I didn't know another 8 was in the hole.

[dan]

no i know that, but what i am saying is like riverd said someone is very likely to be drawing to a flush and equally somebody could be drawing to an up and down so you would you put them on the other 8

[The Baron]

I am agreed that it wasn't a technically brilliant call but:

he is last to act and cannot be reraised, he can get out on the turn if any card bar his 8 comes,

he knows if he hits it he probably takes an entire stack here (which IMO is the main aim in a cash game)

and he wont be left shallow stacked if he loses $20 here. I dont think it's THAT bad.

[snoopy1239]

I think it is safe to say that I'm only drawing to three eights. The threat of a straight or flush draw must take away an out.

I think I'd be unlucky if I only had 2 outs.

[snoopy1239]

I've had a think about this hand and these are my thoughts:

I see this as a very marginal decision. I don't think it's necessarily a matter of what style of player you are, but more a case of 'does the potential pay out justify such a loose call?'

I think there are both pros and cons to this question.

PROS

-- I'm on the button and so have the advantage of acting after everyone else. No-one can raise behind me and therefore I won't be wasting $20 without seeing the turn.
-- If I hit and my hand holds up, I am almost certain to clean out the original raiser. I also feel like I will clean out at least one of the other 2 callers. It's an online scenario and the pot is quickly increasing in size. I doubt they'll BOTH be able to resist.
-- I have a backdoor flush draw and one that will probably win if it arrives.

CONS

-- The original agressor is low on chips. My focus needs to be on cleaning out the player with $230. However, he is the 2nd caller and probably has a drawing hand which he could easily lay down on the turn.
-- One of my outs is probably in the hole. True, one player may have the flush draw and another the open ended straight draw, but I could also have 4 cards to draw to. Therefore, on average, I reckon I'm aiming to hit 1 of 3 outs.
-- The backdoor flush draw may make me pot-committed to a big pot if a diamond hits the turn. Do I really want to put myself in this situation?
-- Assuming that a flush draw is taking away one of my outs, I've only got around a 6.5% chance of hitting.
-- I can still be outdrawn on the river. On the turn, I was still only a 60% favourite to win the hand. However, I can't have known that all players would be moving all-in.

So, now I think about it, I believe a fold was the correct move. If I hit one of my 3 outs, I can still easily be outdrawn on the river. IMHO, this makes my winning of the hand too much of a longshot. Also, the player least likely to pay me off is the fella with the most money. However, I still think it's a borderline decision.

Thx for the views.

snoops

 

[I KNOW IT]

 Could you please post all the other hands in same position but you missed with?

[snoopy1239]

Could you please post all the other hands in same position but you missed with?

I'm not the sort of player who plays these sort of hands. It was out of character for me. It all looked so alluring though. 

[The Baron]

Just thought I'd post this. This is a worse call than the one Snoopy made I think - I'm only drawing to a Jack, but it's my small risk vs massive reward again. Both plyers were rocks - I expected at least one to have an overpair and the other could easily have had 2 pair or trips with their flop betting.

IMO the main aim in a cash game is to bust an entire stack, I know if this Jack comes that I will do just that. If it doesn't I get out.

See what you think.

----------------------------------------------------------------

Hand #8515073-59 at Gloucester (No Limit Hold'em)
Powered by UltimateBet
Started at 21/Sep/05 10:05:32
 
     STLATL is at seat 2 with $245.40.
     bman001 is at seat 3 with $304.80.
     wsolimon is at seat 4 with $532.90.
     paired up is at seat 5 with $190.20.
     The button is at seat 4.
     
     paired up posts the small blind of $2.
     STLATL posts the big blind of $4.

     STLATL:  -- --
     bman001:  -- --
     wsolimon:  -- --
     paired up: 

Pre-flop:
 
          bman001 folds.   wsolimon calls.   paired up calls. 
          STLATL raises to $8.   wsolimon calls.   paired up
          calls.   

Flop (board: ):
 
          paired up checks.   STLATL bets $24.   wsolimon calls.
           paired up calls.   

Turn (board: ):
 
          paired up checks.   STLATL goes all-in for $213.40. 
          wsolimon calls.   paired up goes all-in for $158.20. 
         

River (board: ):
 
        (no action in this round)
         

         

Showdown:
 
     STLATL shows As .
     STLATL has As : three aces.
     wsolimon mucks cards.
     (wsolimon has .)
     paired up shows .
     paired up has : straight, queen high.
         

Hand #8515073-59 Summary:
 
     $2 is raked from a total pot of $681.
               $2 is raked from the main pot of $570.60.
               $0 is raked from side pot #1 of $110.40.
     paired up wins the main pot $568.60 with straight, queen high.
     STLATL wins the side pot $110.40 with three aces.
----------------------------------------------------------------

[rivered]

yeah dodgy call i'd say.  This time you've only got 2 other players in, so the most you can make post flop is 2 times your stack which is now $182, so potential gain of $364. 
It costs $24 to see the next card.  Now assuming you're going to muck if you miss the turn and a decent sized bet comes, you've got around a 15 to 1 shot, or three live cards, given the flush draw on the board and the flat caller in the hand.  That equals a loss of around $350 paying to see the card, vs a gain of $364 but this is if BOTH players call all in - pretty unlikely I reckon..... both players need to go all in against you every time, and if this happens you still only make $14......  Also don't think you can assume a Q or T is an out due to min raises preflop and dodgy kicker.
Therefore purely on an EV basis this is the wrong move.
Hope my maths is OK!!

[NoflopsHomer]

I don't think this is that much worse, you've already said you had at least one of them on an overpair, I'm actually more concerned about one of them having AsKs, wsolimon plays this too passively and in effect helps you win the pot, even though he's bound to lose, he might have had a chance to escape the pot if he'd defined his hand pre-flop or post flop with a tester raise. Minimum raises always look dodgy to me. STL doesn't like the idea of the flush draw, so when it misses he tries to shut the pot, despite the fact if he was actually concerned about that he should have bet more than the pot.

Two things, if wsolimon raises on the flop to $48, do you fold? And if it's the on the turn, what do you do then?

[The Baron]

Ok on the flop a raise to $48 I cant call. There would in effect be a player behind me - just no way I can call.

If the turn is the J spades I'm not sure. I did have them on other hands (bettor on an overpair - caller on trip 8's, 9's or two pair 8's and 9's - not flush draws) so probably would have played it the same. (Although I cant be 100% sure after the event)

rivered - I knew I only had 3 jacks to hit. A Q or 10 wouldn't have made me commit on the turn. Any card bar a jack and I'm out. I was either going to lose $24 or gain at least a double up according to what hands I had them on. I saw it as small risk vs large reward.