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Poker Hand Analysis
Hero or Zero?
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Topic: Hero or Zero? (Read 3576 times)
SuuPRlim
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Posts: 10437
Re: Hero or Zero?
«
Reply #15 on:
February 20, 2012, 08:14:42 AM »
Quote from: muckthenuts on February 20, 2012, 08:12:17 AM
1st hand i think call/call is best.
2nd is a really weird spot, I'm sure we'd assume we have the nuts if he didn't abso bomb the flop. Is this his first ridic overbet? He probably is going to show up with a strong hand considering a mental player behind, but it still doesn't really make much sense on this texture to me. Like what can he actually wanna overbet here?
I thought at the time it was gonna be AK? Just one pair remember
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muckthenuts
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Re: Hero or Zero?
«
Reply #16 on:
February 20, 2012, 08:22:39 AM »
Quote from: SuuPRlim on February 20, 2012, 08:14:42 AM
Quote from: muckthenuts on February 20, 2012, 08:12:17 AM
1st hand i think call/call is best.
2nd is a really weird spot, I'm sure we'd assume we have the nuts if he didn't abso bomb the flop. Is this his first ridic overbet? He probably is going to show up with a strong hand considering a mental player behind, but it still doesn't really make much sense on this texture to me. Like what can he actually wanna overbet here?
I thought at the time it was gonna be AK? Just one pair remember
Then aren't all his Aces essentially gonna be played the same?
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SuuPRlim
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Re: Hero or Zero?
«
Reply #17 on:
February 20, 2012, 01:21:52 PM »
Quote from: muckthenuts on February 20, 2012, 08:22:39 AM
Quote from: SuuPRlim on February 20, 2012, 08:14:42 AM
Quote from: muckthenuts on February 20, 2012, 08:12:17 AM
1st hand i think call/call is best.
2nd is a really weird spot, I'm sure we'd assume we have the nuts if he didn't abso bomb the flop. Is this his first ridic overbet? He probably is going to show up with a strong hand considering a mental player behind, but it still doesn't really make much sense on this texture to me. Like what can he actually wanna overbet here?
I thought at the time it was gonna be AK? Just one pair remember
Then aren't all his Aces essentially gonna be played the same?
mmm not sure I get the question, or if i do I don't know the answer,
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Skgv
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Re: Hero or Zero?
«
Reply #18 on:
February 21, 2012, 04:39:40 PM »
did my response make no sense ? So you saying u just folded turn raise first hand ? wondered why u said u felt good about after a while ?
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DMorgan
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Re: Hero or Zero?
«
Reply #19 on:
February 21, 2012, 08:03:40 PM »
These are the numbers for Q5s vs all combos of A5s, K5s, A5o, 35s-85s, boats and 67. From your description I decided to take away A2, 33, 62s
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
53,081,424 games 0.113 secs 469,747,115 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.582% 43.52% 01.07% 23098910 565597.50 { 4d4h, 4d4s, 4h4s, Ac5c, Kc5c, 8c5c, 7c5c, 6c5c, 6d4d, 6h4h, 6s4s, 5c4c, 5c3c, Ac5h, Ad5c, Ad5h, Ah5c, As5c, As5h, 76o, 6d5c, 6h5c, 6s5c }
Hand 1: 55.418% 54.35% 01.07% 28851319 565597.50 { Qh5h }
---
So assuming that he's not folding any of these hands (which I don't think he is with your image thrown in) then its a jammmmmmm
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Quote from: Karabiner on May 24, 2014, 12:47:13 PM
Is Dan awake yet?
SuuPRlim
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Re: Hero or Zero?
«
Reply #20 on:
February 21, 2012, 08:19:17 PM »
Quote from: Skgv on February 21, 2012, 04:39:40 PM
did my response make no sense ? So you saying u just folded turn raise first hand ? wondered why u said u felt good about after a while ?
no i folded the AQ, felt like a massive nit then felt ok about it afterwards
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SuuPRlim
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Re: Hero or Zero?
«
Reply #21 on:
February 21, 2012, 08:20:40 PM »
Dan i really don't think he's going to c/r get $5k in with 64
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DMorgan
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Re: Hero or Zero?
«
Reply #22 on:
February 21, 2012, 08:34:42 PM »
Second one I'm call/calling, people just spaz too much in big straddled pots imo, think he can do this with any ace from his preflop range, flush draws and very little that actually beats us imo
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Quote from: Karabiner on May 24, 2014, 12:47:13 PM
Is Dan awake yet?
DMorgan
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Re: Hero or Zero?
«
Reply #23 on:
February 21, 2012, 08:35:51 PM »
Quote from: SuuPRlim on February 21, 2012, 08:20:40 PM
Dan i really don't think he's going to c/r get $5k in with 64
didn't mean to include that, will look at it again later, interesting spot for sure
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Quote from: Karabiner on May 24, 2014, 12:47:13 PM
Is Dan awake yet?
Skgv
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Posts: 833
Re: Hero or Zero?
«
Reply #24 on:
February 25, 2012, 02:15:32 PM »
Quote from: SuuPRlim on February 21, 2012, 08:19:17 PM
Quote from: Skgv on February 21, 2012, 04:39:40 PM
did my response make no sense ? So you saying u just folded turn raise first hand ? wondered why u said u felt good about after a while ?
no i folded the AQ, felt like a massive nit then felt ok about it afterwards
But you still yet to explain the first hand that took place as surley that changes the dynamic of the 2nd hand when u have ace q as his image will depend on the result of the first hand surley ?
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SuuPRlim
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Re: Hero or Zero?
«
Reply #25 on:
February 25, 2012, 02:46:09 PM »
Quote from: Skgv on February 25, 2012, 02:15:32 PM
Quote from: SuuPRlim on February 21, 2012, 08:19:17 PM
Quote from: Skgv on February 21, 2012, 04:39:40 PM
did my response make no sense ? So you saying u just folded turn raise first hand ? wondered why u said u felt good about after a while ?
no i folded the AQ, felt like a massive nit then felt ok about it afterwards
But you still yet to explain the first hand that took place as surley that changes the dynamic of the 2nd hand when u have ace q as his image will depend on the result of the first hand surley ?
yh I guess you're right. I called him down in hand 1 and he had 44. I was so close to folding the turn, I was genuinely very close to folding the turn for a couple of reasons, firstly the way he checked raised INSTANTLY, as in, the second my chips hit the felt he just grabbed a bunch of hundred$ chips and made it $1600, so in my mind vs a player like this, who IMO would NEVER contrive a plan on the flop to reverse float, and then c/r my turn bet with something like
(or one of the other back doors). The speed of the turn c/r rules out 67 as well imo as I think this player would at least stop to consider for a second with it being a paired board.
So I felt that the snap turn c/r means he has a hand he had decided when he called the flop to c/r the turn, as he also checked the turn very quickly, so he must have decided this was the line he was taking on the flop. So he either has a pre-empted bluff which I do not believe him capable of, or a value hand, which he believes is ahead of my hand. I think he would call 45 from the BB pf, perhaps even unsuited, I also think he'd call 44, 56o, 57s, 53s prolly 85s and also A5 and K5s, I don't think he has J5, even suited, or any other 5's. I felt 100% he has one of these hands, but convinced myself I had to call/call which I regretted, there is no way I can call the turn and fold the river as I believe he is jamming the river 100%, even with the hands I beat (like he isn't going to get defensive and just c/c A5 otr when i call turn) so once I've commited to the turn call, his range remains exactly the same but i'm getting a much much better price now.
I'd been losing big prior to this hand, and making some big folds, so I felt like I was maybe getting overly paranoid about the situation thinking every hand was a set-up and people might start bluffing me more.
I don't know if I'm being results orientated or not but the more time I've had to reflect over the Q5 hand I can't help but think it's a bad call down, but I'm nicely reassured that everyone here would have taken the same line, there hasn't been a sinlge call for a turn fold ITT.
I think the AQ hand is kinda different to ^^^, he's bet 1.6x pot 4way in a 3bet pot into me, a cray italian and one of the solid reg's who has limp/called preflop, and the board is A68dd, I find it extremely difficult to think he would commit a $4.7k stack in this spot with JJ-KK, and I also don't think he would raise AT preflop all the time, or that he would be so willing to commit when he could easily run into AQ/AJ, or even AK that chose not to 3bet (although I think i'm the only one who could have AK in the hand prolly) he could very easily have AQs though, or KdQd, which is where it get's tricky, but personally thinking back and re-affirmed by the comments on here I kind of think he A*'s played this way are entirely AK, and AQ. My experience with live poker is just that this man shows me AK here all the time, which I why straight away after the hand when I saw the relieved look on his face that no1 had called I immeadiatley felt better.
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Skgv
Sr. Member
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Posts: 833
Re: Hero or Zero?
«
Reply #26 on:
February 25, 2012, 03:01:24 PM »
Yes that makes it simple as if you would of won the first hand it would defitnely changed ur view on 2nd hand, fwiw if im losing in a game i would of played the first the same way an probaly snap got up an drifted to the blackjack table an did the rest
. But that makes the 2nd hand a fold with all the info on this player which if hes just standard rock isnt where sometimes the leveling goes on that u know hes always got it an he might use that image to his advantage ? To be safe an the way u were running just fold! How did u finiish up that day in that game an i hope u left sharpish if things didnt improve ?
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SuuPRlim
Hero Member
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Posts: 10437
Re: Hero or Zero?
«
Reply #27 on:
February 25, 2012, 03:08:59 PM »
Quote from: Skgv on February 25, 2012, 03:01:24 PM
Yes that makes it simple as if you would of won the first hand it would defitnely changed ur view on 2nd hand, fwiw if im losing in a game i would of played the first the same way an probaly snap got up an drifted to the blackjack table an did the rest
. But that makes the 2nd hand a fold with all the info on this player which if hes just standard rock isnt where sometimes the leveling goes on that u know hes always got it an he might use that image to his advantage ? To be safe an the way u were running just fold! How did u finiish up that day in that game an i hope u left sharpish if things didnt improve ?
I lost K3s vs 45o on 332 for $12k and then KK into AA p/f for another $10k.
Tilt went to Sushi Samba for morale boosting sushi, got food poisoning and spent the next 20hours throwing up or in my bed in my Wynn Tower Suite (not even subtle)
Was a below par day by all recollection. Managed to swerve BJ and Dice though, so a small win there.
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