English greyhound derby

[Steve L]

    Just been having another look at the form as we will be making our annual pilgramige from Newcastle to Plough Lane this weekend. Westmead Hawk is the fastest dog up the back straight to the finish line I have seen in my life.
    Looking at the form I think Trap 2 Mineola Farloe will lead up and will be clear at the start of the home straight with Trap 5 Amarillo Slim lying second on the outside. Westmead Hawk should get a clear run into the first bend as Westmead Joe on his inside is a shocking starter and the two on his outside are wide runners and should be a length or so ahead of him at that stage anyway.
   He should have a gap in the middle between the railers and middle to wide runners opening up at the start of the back straight and use his track craft to bolt through, pegging back T2 and T5 on the third bend and barring major trouble hit the lead into the run in to power home.
  Well thats the theory anyway 

[Karabiner]

In other words back Westmead Hawk "in running" if I read you correctly.

[bolt pp]

In other words back Westmead Hawk "in running" if I read you correctly.

he reads it to go round closer than usual does'nt?

If so surley it will only shorten

[Karabiner]

I cannot imagine the hawk shortening in running unless it leads which imo is a very long shot.

[bolt pp]

I cannot imagine the hawk shortening in running unless it leads which imo is a very long shot.

how can it lenghthen significantly in running when the starting price accounts for his style of running.

if he had early he'd be unbackable in every race he run, he'd be simply unbeatable.

if he comes out of the second bend in third with a clear he'll be 8/9s on!!

[Karabiner]

Have you ever looked at the market in running on Betfair in any of Westmead Hawk's races ?

If you had you would know what I am talking about. It's like a knee-jerk reaction and it happens every time.

The market invariable corrects itself and there is only a very tiny "window" but it almost always occurs.

[Steve L]

  Just noticed in my first post, I made an error " Mineola Farloe will lead up and will be clear at the start of the home straight" this should read Back straight.

 I am not saying he will be definitely third coming out of the second bend, but he is likely to avoid any trouble going around the first 2 bends due to the nature of his opponents running styles. Trap 1 is a railer and will hug the inside like glue, Trap 2 runs rails to middle and should be past Trap 1 by the bend, Trap 3 is a terrible starter and even the Hawk should be ahead of him by the bend, trap 5 is a Middle to wide runner and trap 6 is a wide runner. This should leave ample room for a dog with the Hawks track craft to get through into an good position coming off the second bend. Trap 3 should be behind him and if T1 & T6 are marginally ahead of him he will have a clear run through them as T1 will be tight on the inside rail and T6 will be on the outside. He has already beaten Traps 2 and 5 when they have had clear runs and he has been badly hampered.
   Traps 2 and 5 should be in the lead up that back straight, but again by their running styles there should be room through the middle for the Hawk to get through to the front unscathed. If, as expected, Westmead Hawk gets a clear run, I cannot see anything in the race being within 5 lengths of him.
    I am not familiar with the in running market on Betfair, but I don't invisage any trouble in the first couple of bends and he won't be slowest in the run up so he should get a lot better looking start than in past races. Not sure how this will affect the price though, I think this race couldn't be laid out better for him. I don't like backing odds on shots as a rule, but having assessed the chances of the others I am left with no choice.
    T1 &T6 are in my opinion just too slow and won't win without a lot of trouble.
    T2 & T5 have already been beaten by the Hawk with them getting clear runs and WH being hampered.
    T3 is superb in the latter stages of the race, but I just can't see any dog catching W Hawk when giving him a lead which will happen on all but his very fastest start.
    The way the race is made up I see the only potential spots for real trouble are if T1 breaks at his very fastest and goes into the 1st bend upsides T2 and bumping him across into the path of W Hawk, even with this happening I think WH can still catch T5 on the run in.
    Good luck!
   

[bolt pp]

Have you ever looked at the market in running on Betfair in any of Westmead Hawk's races ?

If you had you would know what I am talking about. It's like a knee-jerk reaction and it happens every time.

The market invariable corrects itself and there is only a very tiny "window" but it almost always occurs.

I havnt looked on betfair during one of his races but if that is the case you've got to be on in running hav'nt you?

[Karabiner]

WH is available at just about 10/11 on BF right now.

[bolt pp]

WH is available at just about 10/11 on BF right now.

#

what price do you think it will touch in running?

I knew it would be around the same price, the bookmakers want to keep taking it on, they fancy its got to hit trouble sooner or later

[Karabiner]

It all depends how the race goes, you could always stick in £x @ 3/1 as soon as the lids go up.

You may get matched, but it's so fast and there is a slight delay....

[bolt pp]

Well this is how i see it.

I cant not have a bet in the final and will be having involvement on the whole card.

I just cant back westmead, not at that price.

the way it has to do it is just difficult and the money i'd have to have on is not a value bet.

Will it win? probably but i wont be getting any of it.

Then how can i oppose the dog, and with who.

I think as an interest i'll back the 5 to ping and hold on.

for those of you that back it be sure to check if it smiles as it gets its  photo taken
when crossing the line

[GlasgowBandit]

My plan of action for this is to back the Hawk at 10/11 for £100, I aim to lay T1 on the exchanges for a few quid nothing to big. 

And I'll have my RFC as I have on every dog race I back I am going for 3 4 6 (3 x £15 RFC)

I hope this pays off, if it doesn't I'll have to get vreative with the boxing in the wee small hours.

[bolt pp]

    Just been having another look at the form as we will be making our annual pilgramige from Newcastle to Plough Lane this weekend. Westmead Hawk is the fastest dog up the back straight to the finish line I have seen in my life.
    Looking at the form I think Trap 2 Mineola Farloe will lead up and will be clear at the start of the home straight with Trap 5 Amarillo Slim lying second on the outside. Westmead Hawk should get a clear run into the first bend as Westmead Joe on his inside is a shocking starter and the two on his outside are wide runners and should be a length or so ahead of him at that stage anyway.
   He should have a gap in the middle between the railers and middle to wide runners opening up at the start of the back straight and use his track craft to bolt through, pegging back T2 and T5 on the third bend and barring major trouble hit the lead into the run in to power home.
  Well thats the theory anyway 

Well read   

[bolt pp]

My plan of action for this is to back the Hawk at 10/11 for £100, I aim to lay T1 on the exchanges for a few quid nothing to big. 

And I'll have my RFC as I have on every dog race I back I am going for 3 4 6 (3 x £15 RFC)

I hope this pays off, if it doesn't I'll have to get vreative with the boxing in the wee small hours.

no 10/11 about was there? with the bookies i mean.

were you on, on the exchanges?