What would you do?

[mastersoul]

Im currently in a $6 MTT On virgin. Im on the big blind holding  . 5 People enter the pot and the flop comes down..

   

This gives me a Royal flush draw (Needing  )
Im on 4500 Chips and the chip leader whos the first to act bets 2500 into a pot of 1200. Everyone else folds round to me,

What would you do, Fold, Call or reraise all in on the chance of hitting the flush OR 10 for the straight with the turn and river to come....

[pswnio]

I'm folding unless he has a history of coming way over the top with nothing at all or you're horribly short stacked. You're only a little better than 2-1 to hit an out (any club or a ten).

But then I'm a complete noob at this so I would take any advice I give with a pinch of salt.

[leighton_87]

My maths might be wrong here but you have 13 outs, four tens and 9 clubs.  On the turn you have 13/47 chance to hit then if you don't you have 13/46 chance of hitting on the river, by my maths this is about 55%. 

What you should do depends on your chip stack, if you have an above average chip stack I'd fold and wait for another chance to build up your stack, however, if your shortstacked then you may not get a better chance of doubling up.  The call is not an option you'll have committed too much of your stack to fold to the next bet whether you have hit or not.

This is just my 2 cents worth, I'm not protending to be an expert in any sense of the word.

[pswnio]

One of the clubs is a ten though.

Spose there's always a chance of runner runner with J and/or 9.

[mastersoul]

Cheers for the advice. I ended up reluctantly folding but currently im sitting in 3rd place with 24k with 30 people left. Looks like I made the right decision this time but I almost called considering the odds were quite even!!

Thanks guys 

[pswnio]

Good move. No need to throw it all away on a 2-1 shot. Good luck.

[Graham C]

Folding is the right thing to do.  Good luck for the rest of the tourney

[leighton_87]

Good move. No need to throw it all away on a 2-1 shot. Good luck.

Is it still not just over 50% at 12 outs?

I'm just trying to check my maths here

cheers
Andrew

[Graham C]

12 outs, 45 cards left (opponant has two) leaved just 50% on turn and  25%  on the river.

[mastersoul]

I ussually work on the theory of ; My 12 outs with 2 cards to come : 12 x 4.5 and on the river 12 x 2.2

Is that about right??

Im currently 6th with 23k, should make the final table from here. Only a serious cock up should see me go out b4 then!!

[pswnio]

[Graham C]

where do you get the 4.5 and 2.2 from?

[SupaMonkey]

You had 12 clean outs which is about 45%. You can assume that the bettor is going to call your raise so you are getting 5700 for a bet of 4500. i.e you are putting 44% of the pot in on a 45% shot making it a slightly positive EV (or maybe zero because i have used approximations). In saying that, i would still fold cos i don't like getting my money in in these situations.

[mastersoul]

Im not sure if those estimations are 100% correct. By the sounds of it, Im wrong. I think I read it somewhere in Poker Mag...

[SupaMonkey]

My estimations? Which ones?