andy murray gets my vote but can see a ryder cup player making a late push. just a matter of picking who and getting the right price. probably wouldn't like to see phillips win it.
nemesis, maybe your unwillingness to accept murray as a worthy winner has something to do with your lack of knowledge of the sport?

Or maybe the fact that he is a scot is clouding your vision.

I think he is very good and could be as good or even better than Henman.
But as long as Federer and Nadal breath air - he has ABSOLUELTY NO CHANCE in winning any Slam event or Masters series event.
true BUT (and this might sound strange) the English haven't performed well at anything this year (atleast not a sport the public watches) and therefore Andy Murray only needs to make a final to be considered for sports personality of the year. That way the English will vote for him and the usual groundswell of Scottish mass hysteria fuelled by the tabloids and a weird form of nationalism means that loads of Scots will vote.
Zara Philips also has an outstanding chance of doing allright if the Beeb hype her up (and they will as it's the only sport they cover) the voting people will like her and know her as a Royal (who's also kinda tasty)
I reckon the English cricket team won't do too well against the aussies in the ashes and the cricket hype has died down a lot anyways so a cricketer won't win it.
There will surely be a golfer nominated for it if Europe wins the Ryder cup (which is fairly likely) but people don't vote for golfers.
it will be a football player (Stevie G?) or some one who also plays a popular sport...so Andy Murray isn't out of the race...even though he is over hyped.