I recently started playing $100 NL cash games having played Limit (5/10) up to now. The following hand higlighted an issue for me regarding calling large raises with a top pair/top kicker hand.
I have $88 in seat 7 and hold
.
UTG (seat 2) raises to $4.
Loose aggressive player (65% VP$IP, 10% raise PF, 3.5 AF) calls in seat 5, seat 6 calls, SB calls BB completes.
Flop is
. Pot is $24.
All check to me and I lead out for $15. Folds around to the LAG player in seat 7 who calls. Now heads up.
Turn
. Pot is $54.
LAG checks. I bet $30. LAG moves all in. It is going to cost me $39 to win a $123 pot.
Given the preflop raise it is hard to put a single 4 in my opponents hand. He could have called with 44 or 33 in which case I am toast but why go all in on the turn if he has me on a single pair ? I can't believe he would flat call with QQ - AA with 6 players yet to act. AQ, KQ, & QJ are also possibilities. If he had a Q and the flush draw that would explain the all in but I would have expected him move in before I committed any more chips, which could pot commit me.
I have noticed since I started playing NL cash games that large overbets and all in moves normally mean strength rather than weakness (at least on Pacific). It seems that once certain players make a big hand they bet big and don't seem to care if they drive everyone out of the pot. The policy I adopted was not to get too attached to top pair hands if there is a lot of strong betting. On any given board you could be facing 2 pair or a set. Calling off your whole stack with TPTK in the hope your opponent is weak, drawing or bluffing requires a better reading of players than I have.
Given that I had taken the lead in this pot and bet strongly the obvious move would be to fold. I have represented a Q and his all-in bet says he can beat it. He may be semi bluffing with a Q and a flush draw but I can't see it being a complete bluff. He flat called a decent sized bet on the flop with no possible draws on the flop so he must have something.
I guess my basic question is:
If you are facing a large raise from an opponent, where you have already represented strength in the hand, how strong does your own hand need to be to call or re-raise.
(I know "it depends" but assume you can't put your loose unpredictable opponent on a hand, you have TPTK, and the raise is for a large portion of your stack)
Any opinions appreciated.