Did Pab bluff me?

[luckyblind]

I may not have raised enough preflop but TBH I want a caller, I am in position and have the best hand. I nearly called as I figured Pab knew I could fold AA or KK here. But at the end of the day I only really can beat QQ or AJ.

Real Money Ring Game
Table Name Hand ID Game Stakes
Curious George 10474750-60975 Holdem No Limit $5/$10
[Sep 2 03:20:03] : Hand Start.
[Sep 2 03:20:03] : Seat 1 : Lucky-Blind has $1,861.75
[Sep 2 03:20:03] : Seat 2 : the lipster has $294
[Sep 2 03:20:03] : Seat 3 : londonMunda has $977.25
[Sep 2 03:20:03] : Seat 4 : dhfdls has $500
[Sep 2 03:20:03] : Seat 5 : epistate has $1,210
[Sep 2 03:20:03] : Seat 6 : Pab 09 has $2,679.25
[Sep 2 03:20:03] : Lucky-Blind is the dealer.
[Sep 2 03:20:04] : the lipster posted small blind.
[Sep 2 03:20:04] : londonMunda posted big blind.
[Sep 2 03:20:06] : Game [60975] started with 5 players.
[Sep 2 03:20:06] : Dealing Hole Cards.
[Sep 2 03:20:06] : Seat 1 : Lucky-Blind has
[Sep 2 03:20:09] : epistate called $10 and raised $25
[Sep 2 03:20:14] : Pab 09 called $35
[Sep 2 03:20:20] : Lucky-Blind called $35 and raised $80
[Sep 2 03:20:23] : the lipster folded.
[Sep 2 03:20:26] : londonMunda folded.
[Sep 2 03:20:28] : epistate folded.
[Sep 2 03:20:32] : Pab 09 called $80
[Sep 2 03:20:32] : Dealing flop.
[Sep 2 03:20:32] : Board cards [ ]
[Sep 2 03:20:40] : Pab 09 bet $100
[Sep 2 03:20:47] : Lucky-Blind called $100 and raised $200
[Sep 2 03:21:01] : Pab 09 called $200 and raised $2,264.25 and is All-in
[Sep 2 03:21:14] : Lucky-Blind : show me
[Sep 2 03:21:16] : It's your turn.
[Sep 2 03:21:16] : Lucky-Blind has 10 seconds to respond.
[Sep 2 03:21:20] : Pab 09 : cant
[Sep 2 03:21:26] : Lucky-Blind did not respond and is folded
[Sep 2 03:21:28] : Pab 09 wins $877 as the last player standing
[Sep 2 03:21:31] : Hand is over.

[action man]

looks like old pab had AJ or the flush draw to me, don't think he comes firing out $100 with a set, i put him on soooooooooooooooooooooooted connectors maybe 78 9T hearts

[totalise]

I dont think he will have QQ or AJ here very often, given pre and flop play.

Your main problem is that the times you have him beat, he will almost always have a good draw,  but the times he has you beat you are drawing to 2 outs. Obviously if the frequency of the former is high enough, you can call here, but good players aren't so exploitable in their playing styles, so i guess that makes it a fold


x% of the time you have about 15% equity
y% of the time you have about 65% equity
z% of the time he has gone haywire and you have about 85% equity

I am too tired to do the math but you can do some math and figure out what % of the time he needs to be on a draw here to justify a call.


When the stacks are deepish like this, I like calling quite often on the flop with KK and seeing what happens on the turn,especially if you have no real plan on what to do if he 3-bets a/i, which is gonna happen a LOT when he leads into you on the flop. Essentially he is playing the hand the same way with a draw and a set, good poker 101, so you are just playing around with frequencies, and he needs to be on a draw here a pretty high % of the time to justify a call, and I dont think he will be. It looks too much like a draw to be a draw, if that makes any sense!

Incidentally this is why in these spots I raise more or preflop, makes the hand easier to play postflop (because of stack depth)

[action man]

i know totalise is the hand analysis dog and all that but, i reckon you were infront and passing here is a losing long term play

[totalise]

i know totalise is the hand analysis dog and all that but, i reckon you were infront and passing here is a losing long term play

If stacks were $1k I would agree fully, with the stacks quite a bit deeper, I'm not sure I agree (i think he will have a set here more often then you give him credit for)  but I'm shattered, and when I wake up tomorrow I will prolly end up agreeing with you.

[Newmanseye]

Ok i wanna know did he use lube and were you grabbing your ankles??

Firstly if Pab had the set he is not gonna scare you off by moving all in on that flop, He will want to milk you, and take more cash from you.

If i had to guess I thing pab was putting you on a big ace and re raised so that only a big pair was calling and you didnt.


I would have called all day long there, what other kind of flop do I want with kings?


My opinion is you were bluffed.

[luckyblind]

I think the only draw he could have would be AKh and I have the . Possibly lower sc's and he is playing my hand, with shorter stacks I can see an all in move with a draw other than AKh. I dont think AJ is in the equation as he has called a reraise out of postion. AQh maybe but I think he has a pair of some kind , with the stack sizes it could be 22-AA, with the action more likely 33,55,JJ. I am going to be very surprised if he digs into his pokertracker and posts a complete bluff though.

As I said in the chatbox, gb or set.

[Royal Flush]

I think he has a set here Mike.

He just sees Irish player and thinks "happy days time to get paid" 

Were you playing your usual LAG style aswell? Would have been a good game to watch!

[luckyblind]

I think he has a set here Mike.

He just sees Irish player and thinks "happy days time to get paid" 

Were you playing your usual LAG style aswell? Would have been a good game to watch!

According to Pokertracker I am semi loose aggressive passive whatever that means! It seems to work for me most of the time anyway. Funnily enough it is the rarest ranking of all the players in my database, not sure if this is a good or bad thing.

Against a lot of players I call in an instant, It was 50/50 in my mind whether he was playing me or had it. I know that I make this move most often with a set but will do it wth a big draw also. As totalise said it is about how often he is on a draw or complete air. I don't think in pab's case it is enough times to call. I know that if the roles were reversed that anybody calling me with KK in that situation is losing long term.

[Nem]

I put him on a set and its a fold for me.

edit: or he has AA. Which is a fold for me also 

[action man]

$50 mike had pab beat!!

[Nem]

$50 mike had pab beat!!

There you go Mike, he bluffed ya!

[action man]

on my mothers life ive not spoken to pab about the hand. i know $50 aint much but if u want a little wager the loser could give the $50 to poker4charity?

[Rookie (Rodney)]

Cheeky 46 of hearts looks nice on that flop looks nice

[snoopy1239]

Nothing wrong with a fold here. Even if he has the flush draw, your hand is still very vulnerable, especially if he has the Ace of hearts too, which is always likely.

I wouldn't be surprised if he had the set, there's no reason why he can't call preflop with a Pocket Pair and then bet out on the flop. And, if he believes you have a hand such as the one you are indicating with the preflop reraise and flop reraise, then maybe he thinks you are sure to call his huge all-in.

Much depends on your table image, but your main problem is he knows what hand you have and you don't have a clue what he has.