MTT final table hand

[totalise]

I agree with Wellchief entirely

[SupaMonkey]

Sorry Wellchief, i didn't mean it in a bad way.


Edit, I meant that usually in these situations dale/totalise can offer a pretty good mathematical solution that can't be argued with, that's all (not to say that others can't, but these are just two people who spring to mind).

[kingkev]

nice attempt at a re-steal bertpup but i'd rather make this play with 2 live cards than a raggy ace since your table image didn't sound too good and opps are more likely to start calling you with hands like A-Q A-J and mid PP's

[SupaMonkey]

Bertpup, what was your plan if your oppo had checked behind you?

[Bertpup]

I wouldnt have minded a check behind. If i didnt hit any of the flop and it was a pretty uncoordinated board,  i would either bet 55000 or check call a bet up the the same size and then fire a 75-90k bet regardless of what the turn brought.

[boldie]

I don't get people who said to fold the 9's

the 99 was a good call. in a position where there isn't a lot of difference between the prizemoney yet, you have to assume your pocket 9's are good against a player like that. It's a call every single time in a top heavy tourney.

You can ofcourse also justify the push with the ace rag (because of the position of player nr 5 and his dead chips you could have made it with any two cards really..as the people who told you to fold the hand when they thought you had pocket 9's show) but if I have pocket 9's here I call every single time.

[SupaMonkey]

Right, i used an icm to do this.

Pos Payout Additional %

1st   1206   927   60%
2nd  728    449    29%
3rd   402    123    8%
4th   324    45     3%
5th   279    0       0%

From the original question the chips counts are

Person Chips Equity
LS      659039   0.2356
Bert   502486   0.1917
Dan    896661   0.2926
WPT  690678   0.2439
POP   83136     0.0362

If the 9-9 folds

Person Chips Equity
LS      759239   0.2631
Bert   396286   0.1602
Dan    895661   0.2945
WPT   689678  0.2456
POP    82136    0.0366

If the 9-9 loses

Person Chips Equity
LS      1158525   0.3620
Bert    0             0.0
Dan    895661     0.3121
WPT   689678    0.2640
POP    82136      0.0619

If the 9-9 wins

Person Chips Equity
LS      156553    0.0779
Bert   1007972   0.3251
Dan    895661    0.3020
WPT   689678   0.2533
POP    82136     0.0417

Soooooooooooooooooo  (that's the closest emoticon to a drumroll we have)

If P is the probability of winning the hand,

0.3251* P + (1 - P) * 0.0 > 0.1602

Gives P as 49.2% which means that the 9-9 should call if it has more than a 49.2% chance of winning the hand. Pokerstove gives this hand range as 77+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KJo+ and equates to the top 12.5% of hands. Now, because he is obviously doing it with a larger range than that the 9-9 should call. (it was luck boldie  )

 

ps, can someone check these pls cos i've probably made a mistake somewhere.




Ok, so now a new question. How do you play the A-3 in that position and with those stack sizes.

[boldie]

like i said both plays can be justified. I quite like the push with the A3...but i would call with the 9's.

I would have folded the A3 but that's cus I'm a tight git.

[SupaMonkey]

You would have folded preflop? Do you mean you wouldn't have made it up in the first place or you would fold to the raise?