Is it alot more LUCK than skill........yesterdays M.E at Luton.

[tantrum]

Yes bud, what l'm saying is that Mehmet bet into the origional raiser l called for value and a chance to eliminate him.

So what were your chances then to hit your 3 outer, or let's be optimistic 4 outer?  

He probably thought the same when he called you on the turn:)

[Slick Kid]

Just another long disguised bad beat thread!

And you and your mate Joey that called my re-raise with J 10 at the GUKPT would know all about them Dave.

[tantrum]

JT and 94o are the nuts.

[Dubai]

Lol. He reckons ur blog is wrong btw. Ur re-raise was far less than u stated. But even so u cant blame him for gambling, the entry of the tournament was half - 1 buyin of what he plays. So on a bad night online he loses 10x the entry of the tourny.

[Slick Kid]

Lol. He reckons ur blog is wrong btw. Ur re-raise was far less than u stated. But even so u cant blame him for gambling, the entry of the tournament was half - 1 buyin of what he plays. So on a bad night online he loses 10x the entry of the tourny.

I can't even remember the chips in play, but l would have done the same as him after the call Dave. But FFS we were having a beer and a laugh together. Nice fella but l can't wait to play him again. lol Hawko was takin the piss about it last night on BF.

[taximan007]

The way i read it is, and believe me i am no expert, but love to play the game, you called and got lucky, then he got lucky!!!!, if he misses you have made a "great play".

Is it not the situation  of when "the chips go in" you need your LUCK to stand up( how many times do we hear of AA bing beaten by inferior hands?)

[Royal Flush]

lol

[Cupcake]

Andrew don't really know who you are and really don't want too but the silly Irish guy was well chipped up, the turkish guy was betting  weak and l was intending to make a move whatever came on the turn and if l play my style of poker and am successful with it l don't intend on changing it. You are obviously a successful player with much more live experience than me so forgive my novice play.

Allow me to introduce myself then.

I'm very much an amateur player who, whilst having some success, is always wanting to learn more about how the best players play. I am fully aware of things like pot odds and implied odds, playing the player not the cards, and making moves when the situation is right. When I see hands by people with far more experience than me I like to analyse their play and see what I can learn.

On first glance, in this hand you called 2000 into a pot of 4500 against two players with four, maybe only three, outs to the low end of a straight. The player you are targeting only has 5700 more chips you can take off him. If you don't catch your nine, then it is highly likely that Mehmet will bet again, seeing as he bet into two players on the flop, one of whom was the pre-flop raiser. This will leave him with not very much back in relation to the pot size. Even if he checks to you and you make a move you've already noted that he has big trouble laying one pair down. A player who bets into a pre-flop raiser on the flop has probably hit the flop in some way, wouldn't you say, making it likely he'd call your bet?

All this analysis completely ignores the pre-flop raiser, who was also in the hand when you'd made your call, and could also have caused trouble for you.

Now you say you would make a move on the turn - my inferior analysis has suggested this was highly unlikely to work. You say you were chipped up - perhaps you could tell us how the apparant lack of edge you have in this situation is more than compensated by your chip stack?

My novice little brain is obviously not capable of thinking to a level deep enough to fully comprehend the depth of advanced play on display in this hand and, in my quest to become a better player, I ask if you would be so kind as to deign us with the wisdom you have and enlighten us as to the subtle, delicate, one might say imperceptible, thought processes you went through.

I hope we can be friends and, maybe, one day, you might permit me to teach you a couple of things about not taking every perceived slight on an internet messageboard so frigging seriously.

Hang on a min.................I think I've just read the most accurate in every single detail , most beautifully well written Blonde post ever with  just a tad of  sardonic humour.

I tip my imaginary hat to you sir !!!!.

John.

[snoopy1239]

Andrew don't really know who you are and really don't want too but the silly Irish guy was well chipped up, the turkish guy was betting  weak and l was intending to make a move whatever came on the turn and if l play my style of poker and am successful with it l don't intend on changing it. You are obviously a successful player with much more live experience than me so forgive my novice play.

Allow me to introduce myself then.

I'm very much an amateur player who, whilst having some success, is always wanting to learn more about how the best players play. I am fully aware of things like pot odds and implied odds, playing the player not the cards, and making moves when the situation is right. When I see hands by people with far more experience than me I like to analyse their play and see what I can learn.

On first glance, in this hand you called 2000 into a pot of 4500 against two players with four, maybe only three, outs to the low end of a straight. The player you are targeting only has 5700 more chips you can take off him. If you don't catch your nine, then it is highly likely that Mehmet will bet again, seeing as he bet into two players on the flop, one of whom was the pre-flop raiser. This will leave him with not very much back in relation to the pot size. Even if he checks to you and you make a move you've already noted that he has big trouble laying one pair down. A player who bets into a pre-flop raiser on the flop has probably hit the flop in some way, wouldn't you say, making it likely he'd call your bet?

All this analysis completely ignores the pre-flop raiser, who was also in the hand when you'd made your call, and could also have caused trouble for you.

Now you say you would make a move on the turn - my inferior analysis has suggested this was highly unlikely to work. You say you were chipped up - perhaps you could tell us how the apparant lack of edge you have in this situation is more than compensated by your chip stack?

My novice little brain is obviously not capable of thinking to a level deep enough to fully comprehend the depth of advanced play on display in this hand and, in my quest to become a better player, I ask if you would be so kind as to deign us with the wisdom you have and enlighten us as to the subtle, delicate, one might say imperceptible, thought processes you went through.

I hope we can be friends and, maybe, one day, you might permit me to teach you a couple of things about not taking every perceived slight on an internet messageboard so frigging seriously.

Hang on a min.................I think I've just read the most accurate in every single detail , most beautifully well written Blonde post ever with  just a tad of  sardonic humour.

I tip my imaginary hat to you sir !!!!.

John.

Forget about the imaginary one, use this one. 

[Snatiramas]

God bless you Michael you do now how to stir it up. My opinion for what it is worth (and before you say it, I know, not very much) is this,

Player A has chips which he/she has paid for.
Player B has chips which he/she has paid for.

Player A likes to take risks and play a broad spectrum of hands
Player B likes to sit for hours on end playing like a super rock

They were both prepared to put their money into the tourney regardless of how they play. That is the one of the many beauties of poker. I think trying to prove or disprove a players style and motivation for taking a certain action at a given moment is pointless. The person is either right or wrong. The person is either lucky or unlucky at a given moment. If it were just a game of skill with no luck that we are looking for then we would all play chess.

By the way it was a pleasure sitting next to you in the £200. What a table.

[thetank]

If it were just a game of skill with no luck that we are looking for then we would all play chess.

Two chess players with kinda similar abilities, one is still noticably better than the other. The better one will not necessary win every time they play.

A lot of moves in chess, especially in the middlegame, are made with mostly positional principles in mind, rather than a solid cast iron plan.

You don't necessary know the permetations of your bishop bashing 20 moves down the line. When you have two or more seemingly attractive options available to you, some may lead to victory, others to defeat. Without a computer or grand master handy, you don't know which one is which, but have to make the move anyway.

Luck does exist in chess, we should all stick to poker for the time being. Play 100s or 1000s of tournaments and card games are 0% luck, you can take those odds to the bank.

[snoopy1239]

back to the original question...

The likelihood is that he had an unbelievable run of good cards and was quite simply... lucky.

There's no reason why people can't be lucky for such a prolonged period, it can happen and does happen, but that's the beauty of the game, anyone can win, however bad a player they are.

Makes you wonder though, I bet there is a tournament player out there who will all think is good, when maybe, just maybe it is the contrary, with our views being clouded by a prolonged and rather incredible run of good luck.

[snoopy1239]

If it were just a game of skill with no luck that we are looking for then we would all play chess.

Two chess players with kinda similar abilities, one is still noticably better than the other. The better one will not necessary win every time they play.

A lot of moves in chess, especially in the middlegame, are made with mostly positional principles in mind, rather than a solid cast iron plan.

You don't necessary know the permetations of your bishop bashing 20 moves down the line. When you have two or more seemingly attractive options available to you, some may lead to victory, others to defeat. Without a computer or grand master handy, you don't know which one is which, but have to make the move anyway.

Luck does exist in chess, we should all stick to poker for the time being. Play 100s or 1000s of tournaments and card games are 0% luck, you can take those odds to the bank.

But the best man/performance on the day will win, whilst in poker, you can be the best player there, play the best poker out of anyone on that day, and still come nowhere near the final table.

[Slick Kid]

Lads l play poker my OWN way and learn from everything l do, l learn everyday and l improve every week. I most definitely do not play an ABC game. I have never read a Poker Book and don't intend in reading one. I want to be me, Michael McCool Poker Player, l don't want to be a mixture of other players. I never watched Late Night Poker and l played my first game of poker in January 2006. I take risks and l often pay people off in pots when chipped up to see if l have read their hand right.

In the Main Event Luton Prior to Christmas l went out 10th with two pair as an over pair hit trips on the river. I went out of the Main Event at Luton this week with two pair to an over pair when it hit runner, runner 7 to counterfeit my two pair. Will l play it the same again and make the mad call to hit the two pair, OFF COURSE I WILL. Just remember when your playing me l will be playing ANY two cards trying to bust you. I want to win so bad, and this year l will make a strong challenge for No.1 in the European Rankings. I play 200/300 hands of HU in my kitchen with the lads who work in the kennels everyday. Any hand can win and anyone can play any two cards. Come play me and see how this silly Irish Man gives you easy opportunities to take him out.

I'm not a Great Player but I MOST DEFINITELY WILL BE ONE IN 3 or 4 YEARS. Why else do l play, to be dead money for others and be stuck in the rut. Everybody is after the big one, l'm after everyone l play.

[Slick Kid]

God bless you Michael you do now how to stir it up. My opinion for what it is worth (and before you say it, I know, not very much) is this,

Player A has chips which he/she has paid for.
Player B has chips which he/she has paid for.

Player A likes to take risks and play a broad spectrum of hands
Player B likes to sit for hours on end playing like a super rock

They were both prepared to put their money into the tourney regardless of how they play. That is the one of the many beauties of poker. I think trying to prove or disprove a players style and motivation for taking a certain action at a given moment is pointless. The person is either right or wrong. The person is either lucky or unlucky at a given moment. If it were just a game of skill with no luck that we are looking for then we would all play chess.

By the way it was a pleasure sitting next to you in the £200. What a table.

Very good post Phil, l don't know why l stir it up  . I'm just a farmers son from a small village in the Irish Countryside trying to get a few bob from poker. I keep to myself when playing and hardly open my mouth. Whats Up, people just want a piece of me. I think l've got one of those "beat me with a stick faces". 

Look forward to sitting with you again mate. Your a true gent. Your face when your man sucked out on you early is something that will live long in my memory, lol.