Odds vs Probability of it happening (8 Royal Flushes vs Lottery Win)

[thetank]

Odds of a Royal Flush getting hit are dramatically improved if you lock him in a room with Kev and RED-DOG.

[thetank]

I have been doing approx £5 a draw for the past 8 years and have still not won more than £100.00.However using my approximations I should (based on probability) hit a big win within 12 years. So it will cost me approx £520 x 20 (years) = £10,400 to get a possible bumper return. (Or an opportunity cost of -£10,400 savings over the 20 year period).

Define big.

[CrestOfaWave]

I have been doing approx £5 a draw for the past 8 years and have still not won more than £100.00.However using my approximations I should (based on probability) hit a big win within 12 years. So it will cost me approx £520 x 20 (years) = £10,400 to get a possible bumper return. (Or an opportunity cost of -£10,400 savings over the 20 year period).

Define big.

Big would be top or 2nd top prize. The luck element would come in if you hit the top payout if it had accumulated to rollover status after a draws. Big would be £1m +.

[thetank]

Don't know where you get the big win in 10 years stat.
Here's the real numbers....

6 numbers
Jackpot
13,983,815 to 1 
Once every 52,783.9 years if you buy 5 tickets a week (260 a year)


5 numbers + bonus ball
£100k
2,330,635 to 1 
Once every 8,964.0 years if you buy 5 tickets a week
 
5 numbers
£1.5k
55,491 to 1 
Once every 213.4 years  if you buy 5 tickets a week

[thetank]

Beg your pardon, didn't see that it's a fiver on Wednesday too.

So halve all those numbers.

Jackpot every 26,392 years
£100k every 4,482 years
£1,500 every 106 years (but you can win that down at the local £20 rebuy)

[Syme]

I have been doing approx £5 a draw for the past 8 years and have still not won more than £100.00.However using my approximations I should (based on probability) hit a big win within 12 years. So it will cost me approx £520 x 20 (years) = £10,400 to get a possible bumper return. (Or an opportunity cost of -£10,400 savings over the 20 year period).

Define big.

Big would be top or 2nd top prize. The luck element would come in if you hit the top payout if it had accumulated to rollover status after a draws. Big would be £1m +.

Ah, I think I understand now. This is actually pretty clever of you to non-negatively iterate the retro-odds, and by k-diversifying the probability forest, you demonstrate the Markov benefit paradigm of positioning a considered random and statistically myopic disequilibria muffin.

I don't completely get it though... could you explain the maths slightly slower and in more detail -- I mean, can anyone who has spent £10,000 on the lottery over 20 years expect a £1m+ payout, or is it just you?

[thetank]

Easy tiger. We all make mistakes.

[thetank]

As a mad estimate, the odds of hitting a Royal in practice (you fold  before  hit on the board etc.) might be similar to the 55,491 to 1 of hitting 5 numbers on the lottery.

Of course, you're maybe more likely to play 20,000+ hands a year, rather than 520 (which is the amount of lottery tickets bought). So you'd be 40 times more likely to hit a Royal Flush in any given year than hitting 5 numbers in the lotto.

[Syme]

Easy tiger. We all make mistakes.

[CrestOfaWave]

I have been doing approx £5 a draw for the past 8 years and have still not won more than £100.00.However using my approximations I should (based on probability) hit a big win within 12 years. So it will cost me approx £520 x 20 (years) = £10,400 to get a possible bumper return. (Or an opportunity cost of -£10,400 savings over the 20 year period).

Define big.

Big would be top or 2nd top prize. The luck element would come in if you hit the top payout if it had accumulated to rollover status after a draws. Big would be £1m +.

Ah, I think I understand now. This is actually pretty clever of you to non-negatively iterate the retro-odds, and by k-diversifying the probability forest, you demonstrate the Markov benefit paradigm of positioning a considered random and statistically myopic disequilibria muffin.

I don't completely get it though... could you explain the maths slightly slower and in more detail -- I mean, can anyone who has spent £10,000 on the lottery over 20 years expect a £1m+ payout, or is it just you?

So much angst... I certainly dont expect to win but can afford to have the outgoing on the off chance the experiment works. Would rather have a shared risk portfolio including property, savings,shares and hopefully a long term positive poker bankroll to aid a long term goal of days back on Sandy beaches.

Reward doesnt come without risk and I dare say a high proportion of people on the forum play the lottery even if they know the odds are well stacked against them.

[thetank]

True, you can't put a price on dreams. So long as you don't go overboard on the tickets, there's nowt wrong with playing the lottery.

[Zebediah]

I got dealt a Royal Flush on xmas exe 2005 on Ladbrokes....in 5 card stud!
Won about $10 and hand auto-mucked so the other players didn't even believe me.

[thetank]

I remeber my first royal, before I'd even touched holdem.

On Spin Palace, Jacks or Better Video Poker, won myself £1,000. (which kept me in online mug gambling for a couple of months)

[M3boy]

Another interesting odds fact for you.

Did you know, you have more chance of guessing a complete strangers telephone number than winning the lottery!!

Still wanna spend that £1 ?

Including area code??

By the way do you play as M3MONSTER on PS?? Location Ilford?

Interesting to see the reactions of some people to the thread. I think luck has a huge part to play whether it be poker or the lottery. I genuinely believe that some people are luckier than others too. In poker getting lucky includes pushing at the right time,winning the first big confrontation in a tournament, avoiding confrontations with bigger or same size stacks on coin flips, catching chased draws, slow playing the flopped nuts in trap situations etc etc.

My biggest win came about from amassing a large chip stack mid tournament and then playing TAG and small stack bully poker from the last third onwards. I know I have a lot of work to do on the mathematics side of my poker and that is what I will be working on during the next few months.

;-)

Not me.

[tikay]

Syme, keep it civill please, it's a fun thread.