One thing im interested in is whether people think his river bet in general is going to be a winning strategy, the split here seemed to be about 50/50 in terms of whether to call or not, so if thats the case then it makes his bettin pot to win pot EV neutral, but....I wonder how often a random folds a hand as strong as a set here, because thats pretty much all i was to him, and how often a random has a hand that strong.
thoughts? (and please try to ignore the fact that this time the bet worked)
Interesting question. I think you have to look at his overall play. He probably put you on an overpair and thought he had 13 outs plus considerable bluffing opportunities. I think the str8 bluff is a call, but would have folded to the flush bluff. So from the turn on his play would be very profitable (vs me anyway) if he bluffed the flush and only bet the made str8. As far as the strength of your hand is concerned, I’m not sure what I would do with an overpair – probably check the turn anyway, and call a reasonable river bet i.e I probably won’t be in this position with a weaker hand. I suppose the only defence against this kind of opponent is to have a wide enough range so that he occasionally bluffs the nuts.
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