GUKPT Brighton - final hand

[MAF]

I was watching the GUKPT heat in Brighton.  I want to discuss the final hand, and in particular the call by Dave Smith.  I'm trying to work out whether it was a really good, or really bad call.  At the moment, I'm in the opinion it was the latter.

Smith has 

The flop comes down  xx all low diamonds.  Carr bets, Smith raises, Carr pushes all-in. 

Smith has only top pair.  Although he does have a draw to the flush, it's still only 9 high.  He could effectively be drawing dead (we know that with Carr holding  he's not, but Smith doesn't know that).

If he calls, he wins.  If he calls and loses, he'll be at a big chip disadvantage.

Smith has been outplaying Carr so far from what we've seen.  Does he really need to risk this sort of call?

Or am I missing something here?  Please someone explain this to me.

[action man]

it all depends what dave thinks carr will push with, its usually 50/50  here i.e smith's pair is either good or his FD will be. I thought carr played very well throughout, the last hand hu maybe played itself.

[portfolio]

agreed.

[MAF]

it all depends what dave thinks carr will push with, its usually 50/50  here i.e smith's pair is either good or his FD will be. I thought carr played very well throughout, the last hand hu maybe played itself.

My thinking here is that Carr has shown real strength by betting, then pushing against Smith's raise.  What does Smith think he's beating? 
A made flush puts Smith in trouble, or if he's on a flush draw then his 9 high may still not be good enough.

[AdamG]

i watched this the other night, and thought he was a clown fish....and he cannot laydown any hand at all... loose call paid off by a 7 outer

[LuckyLloyd]

Stacks; blinds and betsizes to the decision point are key pieces of information you need to have before you can properly analyse the call. How long had the HU match been in progress? Had the two played any other big pots thhroughout the tournament.

Personally, assuming a HU situation with effective stacks of less than 50BBs I would need a reason to lay down top pair and a redraw rather than needing a reason to call.

[NoflopsHomer]

Hand as reported on Blonde. 20k/40k/4k blinds and antes.

flop looks exciting.

Dave raises Neil's initial bet 80k bet to 160k. Neil moves all-in. Dave wants a count... It's 936,000 more.

Dave calls.

Neil:



Dave:



Turn:



River:

Neil was big blind here I think. Going from a previous page's total chips in play, there was 3,022,000 chips in play. Which means Neil had 1,056,000 and Dave had 1,966,000.

[NoflopsHomer]

Btw, good to see you back on here Lloyd. See you at Drogheda in Feb no doubt.

[LuckyLloyd]

Btw, good to see you back on here Lloyd. See you at Drogheda in Feb no doubt.

Cheers man. I will be there with bells on!! And ooodddleees and oooodddles of patience. My plan is to fold for three days. Easy.

[NoflopsHomer]

[AlexMartin]

At the time i thought it was a really bad play by Dave. Nothings changed.

[NoflopsHomer]

At the time i thought it was a really bad play by Dave. Nothings changed.

From my experience of updating, Dave is not a guy who likes to fold hands. I don't think this is the worst call ever though.