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Author Topic: A Hand Quiz with a difference  (Read 17322 times)
Harry Demetriou
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« Reply #45 on: November 02, 2005, 02:17:08 AM »


Me? I'd fold anything axcept AA in a shot.

But a good player might not.

For me, it (playing in the WSOP) would be an experience to savour, & I genuinely believe I'd have a chance of cashing, though very little chance of winning. (Which is half my problem). And I don't wanna gamble in a 3 way pot at this stage for all my chips, I'd rather "settle" & feel out the table, & try to play big pots on my terms, ideally one on one. The time to gamble is later, imo.

It is possible that I'd have a better chance by gambling, as opposed to trying to outplay folks. But if my - or your - even money shots hold up most of the time, as they do some nights, I can make the money, easy.

But as I'm unlikely ever to play the WSOP Biggie, it's all academic to me.

Anyway, I've retired from WSOP events - I wanna preserve my 100% WSOP cashes record!


"I don't wanna gamble in a 3 way pot at this stage for all my chips"

It's not gambling when you are a good favourite in the pot as otherwise you are saying you need to have the absolute nuts to put all your chips into the middle. With AA you have as good as it gets to the nuts pre flop against two opponents but not with KK or less.

Betting is the language of No Limit Poker and all in bets pre flop and all in calls basically shout AA KK or AK to you but when the blinds are small and stacks deep then they SCREAM AA and AA.

Hence everything other than AA ins eat 7 gets folded and the better players would see the bets in this way.

If by some remote chance neither of the first two had AA it's just too bad but a bare Ace against your KK still has a 30% chance of winning.

KK or worse is an EASY fold in seat 7.

However it is EXTREMELY LIKELY that you are an underdog and gambling if you call in this spot with anything less than Aces in seat 7 and no player of any note should even contemplatye calling with KK in seat 7 unless he had x-ray vision and could see his opponents cards.

This question demonstrates why position is so important. When you see this kind of action/betting before it is your turn to act you have no business being in the pot with anything less than Aces.

Had the betting been raise to 150 followed by reraise to 500 then its a whole new ball game but all in bets for 10k called by another player for 10k on the first hand is a totally unique and specific case that says AA is already out there.

This is the problem with hypothetcal non real scenarios and I repeat that in real life you wouldn't have a decision to make in seat 7. You simply call with AA and fold everything else.
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vinni
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« Reply #46 on: November 02, 2005, 02:27:43 AM »

id probably fold 2 5 off suite but not suited . seriousley how can annyone think of folding A A no matter what stage it is in the game definitley not before the flop ,whos to say seat 5 is not holdin AA ITS still a split pot
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tikay
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« Reply #47 on: November 02, 2005, 02:27:55 AM »

Harry, a beautifully & logical explanation, all angles nicely covered, thread now dead, so now YOU had better set us a hand quiz please! (Hehe...)..

By the way, maybe I did not word my post very well. But I WOULD call in a 3 or even 4 way pot with AA, but not, at this stage, with ANY other hand. I intended to say I did not want to gamble three way in this instance UNLESS I had AA.

Now about that hand quiz.......
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bundle
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« Reply #48 on: November 02, 2005, 02:28:35 AM »

anyone know the odds of being dealt AA ?
« Last Edit: November 02, 2005, 03:19:04 AM by bundle » Logged
Harry Demetriou
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« Reply #49 on: November 02, 2005, 02:55:43 AM »

Harry, a beautifully & logical explanation, all angles nicely covered, thread now dead, so now YOU had better set us a hand quiz please! (Hehe...)..

By the way, maybe I did not word my post very well. But I WOULD call in a 3 or even 4 way pot with AA, but not, at this stage, with ANY other hand. I intended to say I did not want to gamble three way in this instance UNLESS I had AA.

Now about that hand quiz.......

No doubt others have strong views about why they should call with lesser hands but poker is complex and I like to try and make the decisions black and white.

As for your answer it was my reply that was worded incorrectly as you correctly (imo) throw everything away except for aces in this spot and I inexcusibly seemed to imply you would call with lesser hands but this was not my intention.

Regardless of what the other two players have it cannot possibly be a mistake to throw away KK in seat 7 with this betting action.

Any inkling as to what those "most pros got it right" decided to do? and more importantly their reasons for soing so.

If they argue that with their superior skills they can make up for giving up this kind of edge if they throw away aces then I would laugh at them becasue there's no way they can expect to get into better spots especially when you consider that if they get all in with AA against a single opponent there is still an 18% chance they lose.

As for a quiz I'll set one in another thread but here will be no definitve answer to it and it will take you thorugh an entire hand from pre flop to river and I'll call the thread Complex Hand Problem.
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bundle
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« Reply #50 on: November 02, 2005, 02:58:07 AM »

I take that as a NO then!
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12barblues
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« Reply #51 on: November 02, 2005, 02:59:09 AM »

220 to 1.....ish
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« Reply #52 on: November 02, 2005, 03:08:55 AM »

well my chips go in with AA and thats the only hand i would get in there with... I would dwell on it for a min or two, because i would'nt want to be the first one out.

If the odds of getting AA is 220-1 with 7000 runners thats 32 people being delt AA in the first hand,since it loses 18% of the time 5 people should be taking the long walk with you if your AA is busted....

I'm calling anyway
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Harry Demetriou
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« Reply #53 on: November 02, 2005, 03:16:02 AM »

I take that as a NO then!

NO the answer is YES.

Probability of getting Aces........

First and second cards have to be an ace so for a 52 card standard deck.

First card 48 non aces to 4 aces = 12/1 0r in decimal form 13.0

Second card 48 non aces to 3 aces (one ace and card already gone) = 16/1 or 17.0

Probability of getting dealt a pair of Aces = 17 x 13 = 221 or 220/1

BUT ..........................If you're a poker player it seems more like 58,987,345,678/1  that you get them and even longer that they hold up;-)
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