Vagueness and the Aftermath - A sporadic diary

[EvilPie]

If the screw in hole 1 is screw 2? Probability 2 is 0. If hole 1 is wrong, one of the other holes is guaranteed drawing dead - so how can you sum them all up?

Because it is a mean.  You aren't working out what happens each time, just what happens on average. 

One of the holes drawing dead is almost a good thing. It means that the 31/1 shot that's about to hit it doesn't matter.

If you follow the screw 2 in hole 1 logic through and say that screw 3 goes in hole 2, 4 in 3, 5 in 4 etc. you end up with screws 1 and 32 to go in holes 31 and 32. At that point you have a coin flip despite one of your remaining two holes drawing dead.

[RED-DOG]

If the screw in hole 1 is screw 2? Probability 2 is 0. If hole 1 is wrong, one of the other holes is guaranteed drawing dead - so how can you sum them all up?

Because it is a mean.  You aren't working out what happens each time, just what happens on average. 

One of the holes drawing dead is almost a good thing. It means that the 31/1 shot that's about to hit it doesn't matter.

If you follow the screw 2 in hole 1 logic through and say that screw 3 goes in hole 2, 4 in 3, 5 in 4 etc. you end up with screws 1 and 32 to go in holes 31 and 32. At that point you have a coin flip despite one of your remaining two holes drawing dead.

Every argument and counter argument, theory and counter theory convinces me. I'm swaying like an aspen in the wind.

Brilliant stuff.

[Rod Paradise]

Doobs answers looks right on an intuitive basis, the sum of the probabilities has the feel of a series that will total 1 which is reassuring in itself.

Got to agree with this.

JonMW's answer surely can't be right. If zero = 0.362 then every non-zero must add up to the rest and his series is never going to get there.

It doesn't have to total 1; Doobs answer was looking at the most probable outcome (I get it now - the other stuff was all the permutation; I never liked permutations - or probability for that matter); but the question was:

...How many screws are likely to have ended up in the original hole?

So we're looking for a single value - which will be the average value of all the probabilities.

It did trouble me though that we are doing 32 cases of a 1/32 shot - plus 1 being the most likely outcome when permutations were involved.

This made me think I was looking at the wrong average - with all those indices the average of the 32 terms is probably not the mean, but the 32nd root.

If I recalculate the series I made before it adds up to 0.374121....; the 32nd root of that is 0.96974....

So I'll revise my previous answer to say the number of screws in the right place is 0.96974....
(the reason it's not 1 is just like with the roulette wheel - there aren't 32 outcomes, because you might get 0 in the same place).

If that's not it then the answer is going to be somewhere in here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value

But I can't really look much more at it as we have a honeymoon to continue planning for and apparently that is much more actually important

There is absolutely no reason why it should be the 32rd root. 

Just look at 1 hole.  We can see that the mean of one hole is 1/32:
Probability we get this hole correct on its own is 1/32.
The mean is then 1x 1/32 + 0 x 31/32 = 1/32 (probability of 0 correct = 1-1/32).  You can't get two screws in one hole, so there are no other possible outcomes. 

Therefore mean number of correct screws in hole 1 is 1/32. 
Going on to the next hole, the maths is exactly the same.
Mean number of correct screws in hole 2 = 1/32.   

We can carry this on for all 32 holes and each one has a mean of 1/32.

Before you get carried away thinking but this changes because we know the answer to hole 1.  The probability will still be the same, as once you do this (Probability 2 is correct given hole 1 is correct and Probability 2 is correct given hole 1 is wrong) the answer should be the same. 

Another way to think about this is our choice of what hole we call hole 1 is arbritary, so they must all have the same mean as we could happily have picked any hole first.  We can't change the mean just by choosing to label that particular hole as hole 5 instead of hole 12.       

Sum them all up and you get 32 x 1/32 = 1.

 

If the screw in hole 1 is screw 2? Probability 2 is 0. If hole 1 is wrong, one of the other holes is guaranteed drawing dead - so how can you sum them all up?

Because it is a mean.  You aren't working out what happens each time, just what happens on average. 

But it doesn't work out that way?? Put it this way I'd give you evens on getting one right going by the sample I ran.

PS I'm at my limits and beyond with the maths, but the answers seem to be significantly well away from the tests I ran. I'm genuinely interested in how this would be calculated.

[RED-DOG]

Haha, I really do. I love the frugality (if that's a word), the skill, the patience, the looking afterness of it all. The box sounds like a good example of 5S disciplines, in it's own small way, that you'll find in any good workshop or manufacturing plant.

I've never been much of a looker after and it's hard to count the skips I've filled over the years with stuff that should have lasted longer or perfectly good junk because I couldn't be bothered to maintain, repair, find a new home for it or a buyer.

So, I think we're just drawn to the things we're not and I love watching things getting done that I've been poor at - in this case it helps offset the negative feelings I have about my own consumerism and inclination to see most things as disposable.

I do enjoy doing this sort of stuff but you're right, frugality is the driving force. Well that and the fact that I abhor waste.

I wish I could let myself be a bit more bala sometimes but I just can't.

For example, My brother John and I are planning to do a little European motorcycle tour, we've been planning it for ages. We both needed protective clothing. He went into a motorcycle accessories shop and bought a Jacket ~ £200, Kevlar jeans £100+ Gloves ~£60 etc..

I trawled the charity shops and car boot sales. I got gloves for £3, Trousers for £5, and a leather jacket for £7.

I can't help it. The way I see it, finding those items is equivalent to going out and earning £300. Plus, the leather jacket I bought was all neglected and sad, but I treated it with some saddle soap and TLC and now it has a new lease of life.

John says I'm too busy farting around saving pennies to earn pounds. The worst part is, I know he's right.



This is us on a practice run to Skeggy the other week.

Not long now, God willing....

Click to see full-size image.

 

This is a bit of a step up. What happened to the Cub 90?

Cliffs.

I read somewhere, (On here I think) about someone touring Europe on a Cub 90, get all excited about it and buy one.



 

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I find out that I can't ride it on L plates abroad so I need to pass my test.

Decide to go for full, unrestricted motorcycle licence and be done with it.


 

Find Yamaha YBR 125 languishing in a shed. It has no MOT and needs a service but I can buy it dirt cheap. I convince myself that it will be great for practising for my test and for touring around Europe.

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So I pass my test and set about getting the 125 Yammy ready for the big adventure.



Then, a couple of months ago, I see one of these in Morrison's car park.....

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[RED-DOG]

I walk around staring at it. It looks farkin huge!

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[RED-DOG]

I go home, fire up google and find out that the thing in Morrisons car park is called a maxi scooter.

Now the last time I looked at a scooter was when I was a boy of about 13. We got an old Lambretta in the scrap and we coaxed it back to life. It was ancient back then and that was forty odd years ago

Things have changed.

The standard equipment list for your average maxi scooter is long and impressive, but for me, the most amazing thing is something called a CVT which stands for Constantly Variable Transmission.


What an utterly fascinating concept that is. Imagine having several hundred gears at your disposal, each perfectly suited to the current speed, load and available torque. It's like, incredibly simple and incredibly complex all at the same time.


Here is a YouTube vid that explains how it works. (It's 6 mins long but don't worry, you only have to watch the first 3)

Remember, there are no electronics here, it's purely mechanical. It works on almost exactly the same principle as the governors in a wind up gramophone.

[RED-DOG]

So apart from the world's most advanced drive-train, what else do you get on your maxi scooter?


Fairing that is so good you can ride at 70 mph with your visor up and hear your phone ring.







An instrument cluster with all the sensors and gauges (I love sensors and gauges)

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Zomg amount (62ltr) of under seat storage. That's enough for two helmets, a coat, waterproofs, tools, the dog and a week's shopping.

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A glove box with a 12v socket inside + two smaller cubby-holes.








Armchair comfort.





ABS braking. (And a handbrake, I kid you not)

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I wanted, but I couldn't afford....

[typhoon13]

Don't piss about Tom

Go for an Harley

[RED-DOG]

They're pretty Trev, I'll give you that, but basically, they're crap. (You haven't got one have you?)





Only about one Yamaha bike in 10 has experienced a major problem or required a serious repair over the past four years, according to the 4,424 motorcycle owners surveyed by CR. In contrast, about one BMW motorcycle in three has suffered from such a complaint -- and one Harley in four. Here's how the numbers break down:

Click to see full-size image.

PS- Have you heard that cuckoo yet? I haven't heard one for about 5 years.

[RED-DOG]

Rant time.


For the last 15 years I have visited Barwell refuse site once a month to dispose of my household rubbish.

After the first couple of years, they told me that I couldn't use the site any longer unless I applied for a permit.

I applied for and got a permit which had to be renewed every year.

Then they introduced a rule that said a permit only entitled me to make 12 visits.

Now they say that the permit can only be renewed once every 2 years. this means I can no longer go once a month, so I will have to ask the council to supply me with one of those 'too small' bins and I will have to leave it at the end of my drive every week so that the kids can chuck it into the river.

The council will have to send their massive lorry to empty my tiny bin, this means they will either have to cross a 3 ton limit bridge or reverse down a long narrow lane lined with cars.

Why can't they just leave things alone?

[RED-DOG]

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[RED-DOG]

Why are TV chefs such unhygienic types? I mean,

Fat ladies- lots of difficult to wash places.

Hairy bikers- hair, dandruff, grease etc

Gordon Ramsey- spits when he swears. (and he swears all the time)

Jamie Oliver- nuff said.

Why can't we have simple wholesome cooks, like say, oh I don't know.... Susanna Reid?

[RED-DOG]

I've invented a new game.
Equipment:

One piece of 2" by 4" wood around 2ft long.

One of those hard rubber super-bouncy balls.

One large brick-built building with at least one windowless side. (Preferably adjacent to a grassy area but if unavailable concrete will do)

An assortment of flat caps.

A group of players numbering between 3 and 9.




Rules.

The smallest, most easily bullied player is chosen at random to use the piece of wood to hit the ball against the wall of the building, the ball will then ricochet back towards the batsman at an extremely high velocity.

If the ball hits the batsman in the face or the nether regions, he should be given a 1 minute 'time out' before having to bat again.

If the batsman manages to dodge the ball, the rest of the players whip off their caps and try to catch it.

The ball must be caught in the cap and cap must be held by the peak only.

The cap may not be removed from the players head until after the ball has passed the batsman, a player removing his cap before then is considered to be offside.

If a player does succeed in catching the ball it must remain in the cap while the player quickly replaces it upon his head.

The player then runs away and everyone else chases after him.

If he is caught he is beaten up and then becomes the batsman.

If he gets away and remains unfound until all the other players have gone home, he is deemed to be the winner.


I've tried this game out and it works quite well.

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[typhoon13]

They're pretty Trev, I'll give you that, but basically, they're crap. (You haven't got one have you?)





Only about one Yamaha bike in 10 has experienced a major problem or required a serious repair over the past four years, according to the 4,424 motorcycle owners surveyed by CR. In contrast, about one BMW motorcycle in three has suffered from such a complaint -- and one Harley in four. Here's how the numbers break down:

Click to see full-size image.

PS- Have you heard that cuckoo yet? I haven't heard one for about 5 years.

Harley NO but been toiling with the idea or an XT660R

Cuckoo hardly heard it for about 5 years also but...... this year we have a resident one back in our area

Laid in bed this morning at 04.50 hours and it did just two cuckoos which is strange at this time of the year

Do you still play poker Tom?

[RED-DOG]

The XT660R is a great bike according to those in the know Trev. Have you had a go on one yet, what would you use it for,  do you have a bike licence?

Poker? I play a bit online but I think I fall into the rando moron category. I haven't played live for ages. I don't think I could stay awake until 4am these days, also, when you haven't played for a while the money becomes real again and it seems crazy to stump up a wodge just to see what Madam variance will do with it.

That said, I do miss the excitement and the banter. So I might set fire to a couple of hundo for old times sake.

It would be nice to see a few of the old faces.