Complex Hand Analysis -THE FLOP - CUT OFF position

[Harry Demetriou]

15000 in the pot six handed

You hold and have 200k

flop is: 

Button has 50k

Everyone else has 120k-150k

Small Blind Checked as did early position limper and mid position limper so its you to act with only the button behind you left to act.

Again I ask;

What do you do - Check or Bet?

If Betting How much do you bet?

What are you thinking?

[TightEnd]

I'm thinking I have to bet. No question

four checks to me, no sign of any strength anywhere on a dangerous looking flop for a lot of made type hands like trips, with only the button to act, I'm all round the flop

I have the up and down, any 6 or 10 gives me 8 cleanish outs if I don't win the pot there and then

Time to consider what happensif the button detects the attempt to buy the pot and pushes all in having hit the flop with a K  for example or two hearts or worse

Lets say I bet the pot 15k, button pushes all in

Pot is now 15k pre flop, my 15k flop bet and his 50k with me having to put another 35k in..not quite 3-1, but if someone else calls I'm getting the odds I need, alternatively over bet it...

albeit any flush draw could counterfeit me if I hit, easily, so reverse implied odds are coming into play

I'm making a pot size bet, on a semi bluff

[mikkyT]

I fire off a pot sized bet here. I have an up n down straight draw and can represent the king whilst scaring away any flush draws.

[ifm]

right, i now bet.
it is unlikely any of the players who have checked have trips or even top pair as they would have protected their hand against the flush/straight draws.
So i would make it a sizeable bet, in the region of 10k, i am now trying to shut it down here, if everyone/anyone flat calls i'm still drawing to a strong hand.
The reasoning behind the 10k is that the button is unlikely to flat call with a made hand and if he goes allin i can still pass, it's either pass/allin for him i think.
If reraised i re-evaluate.

[Harry Demetriou]

right, i now bet.
it is unlikely any of the players who have checked have trips or even top pair as they would have protected their hand against the flush/straight draws.
So i would make it a sizeable bet, in the region of 10k, i am now trying to shut it down here, if everyone/anyone flat calls i'm still drawing to a strong hand.
The reasoning behind the 10k is that the button is unlikely to flat call with a made hand and if he goes allin i can still pass, it's either pass/allin for him i think.
If reraised i re-evaluate.

How about if one of the blinds checked with the intention of check raising a weakish K holding? A lot of players do that.

Also some players when they see a flush draw out there like to keep the pot small until the turn card comes off. ie they wait to see no heart come off as they do not want to put a pot sized bet out there knowing they will get called by a flush draw but once the non heart comes on the turn they will make it very hard for a drawing hand to call them.

Just a couple more things to think about as if you didn't have enough to think about already.

[ifm]

the trouble is that the button is likely to make a big play for this pot if it's checked all the way round.
What can i do if the button puts in a large bet?
He's my main concern right now, if i'm reraised i will have a think

[SupaMonkey]

To me this is the wrong place to fire a bet off. Yes you have lots of outs but;

a) you have no idea what the button is going to do
b) you can not be sure that you won't get a check raise. If an early player has a strong hand he will not want to bet for fear of a few callers and then giving the correct pot odds to the people drawing. In a 6 handed pot he will expect a bet and then he come over top, kill any drawers and maybe win the pot there.

So, you are in a win-win situation if you check. Either the button calls and you get a free card or the button raises and then you get to see all the action. The only real problem is that someone else maybe drawing to the flush draw but then you have position.

You can still lay down the hand because it has only cost you the blind so far.

[Karabiner]

I'm happy to take a free card here.

Check

[snoopy1239]

15000 in the pot six handed

You hold and have 200k

flop is: 

Button has 50k

Everyone else has 120k-150k

Small Blind Checked as did early position limper and mid position limper so its you to act with only the button behind you left to act.

Again I ask;

What do you do - Check or Bet?

If Betting How much do you bet?

What are you thinking?

Without reading the other responses:

I'd check.

You could make the semi-bluff, but it would have to be a chunky bet, and just not worth the risk.

If your bet is called, you're in dire straits with a poor hand. Do you really want to be considering taking a second shot on the turn with these cards?

Even if you do hit the up and down, you could still be outdrawn on the river by a flush draw, 2 pair, or a set, who could all quite easily stick their chips in.

If I'm going to hit my card, I want to see it for cheap and in a multiway pot so I have an increased chance of getting paid. It would be very well disguised and you just may get a call from a marginal hand. The bet on the turn would have to be big though, you wouldn't want to give them a cheap river.

I'd actually be thinking about what the other players called preflop with. The two blinds could have almost anything, so hands like 6-9, K-9 etc aren't out of the question. They could easily be trapchecking and waiting for a hand like KQ to bet.

The early limpers could also be trapping with 66, 99, or even KK for the earliest limper.

Even if I bet, I could get played against by a hand like TT, 88, 77 etc who might decide to put me to the test to see if I'm on the steal.

Then there's the potential flush draw. You'd be hard pushed to get one of them to fold and such a draw could easily come over the top forcing you to pass and waste the opportunity of a free card to hit your draw. - Semi-bluffs always look less appetising to me when there are stronger draws out there.

You can't forget the button either. He could do anything as you don't have too much info on him.  He has called preflop with a low stack. It's unlikely he has rags, and considering everyone has checked, a hand like KQ, JK, KT really isn't out of the question. He may also identify your bluff and make a move. He has enough chips to make you fold.

I just don't think the bet is worth the risk in this situation. Too many possible holdings with too many possible draws. Your stack is still strong in comparison to the rest of the table.





Having said this however, I can see some possible reasons to why some1 might decide to give the bluff a shot.

(i) Everyone's checked so a top pair holding is unlikely, unless the blinds have the king with a weak kicker, but, even then, they may decide to muck.

(ii) You have position over all but one potential caller.



IMHO, if the flop wasn't suited, I may consider making the semi-bluff. I just don't like semi bluffing at a flop that has better draw possibilites. Let's not forget that a Ten could make someone else a bigger straight and potentially cost you all your chips. A jack queen is a very feasible holding for any of your opponents.

[SupaMonkey]

Harry, have you considered adding a poll on these things? It would be interesting to see what most people would do.

[Harry Demetriou]

Harry, have you considered adding a poll on these things? It would be interesting to see what most people would do.

I did think about the poll option but decided against it.

There is no real right or wrong answer as it depends on how you feel about your opponents and it is far FAR more valuable for us to discuss the thinking behind the plays rather than just pick an answer.

We need to discuss ideas and what we are all thinking about in order to learn something rather than just say this is right and that is wrong . On top of that the amounts bet can be crucial in certain situations too..

[SupaMonkey]

I just thought that some people might not want to write what they think but may prefer the anonymity of clicking a box.

You could always write bet 1/2 pot. bet 3/4 pot. etc.

Anyway, just a thought.

[ifm]

i'm quite happy to vent my opinion, i have already learnt much from this.
to have a world class pro give his own opinions is fantastic and greatly appreciated (not you tighty)

[snoopy1239]

i'm quite happy to vent my opinion, i have already learnt much from this.
to have a world class pro give his own opinions is fantastic and greatly appreciated (not you tighty)

cheers, ifm.

Too kind.

[JP]

If I was going to bet I would bet no more than half the pot I want to keep the pot size down 6k is probably what I would bet to give myself 3.5/1 pot odds on my draw and would encourage a free river as a check caller would more than likely check to the raiser on 4th street. Maybe also to stop the button making a move at the pot, sometimes the best way to get a cheap/ free card is to bet. The 6k bet will more than likely lose QJ as well which would be a disaster if the 10 was to fall.

I'm not a fan of the pot size bet that many people have suggested as this increases the size of the pot dramatically in a pot which the 78 is underdog, this game is easier when the pots are kept small. Big pots lead to rash decisions and more gambling when the idea is to win pots quick and easily with minimal risk to your stack.

A check here is also fine, wouldn't consider betting if i wasn't chip leader but the chip stack will prevent people making moves at the pot as I can break them.