Tonight's FFS-not-again moment

[Moskvich]

This always happens to me and it's not fair FACT.

Well no, only kiddin', but how do you play this (on the river especially, but obviously comments welcome for the whole hand)?

Maybe it's really simple and I should just check it down or check-fold, or should I turn my hand into a bluff, and if so how much do I bet?

Game is 1/2 NL (full-ring, playing 8-handed) on a site without PT, so no stats.

HJ and Button call $2, I raise to $10 from the SB with . Both call, pot is $30ish.

Flop .

I bet $20, HJ folds, Button calls, pot is $69ish. Button has around $158 left, we have him covered.

Turn is .

I bet $43, Button has a bit of a think and calls.

River is the . Pot is $150-odd and villain has about $105 back.

?

[boldie]

the only way you can really win the hand is if you push...unless he's a coward and doesn't bet if you check to him.

i push.

[AlexMartin]

yuk, get these spots all the time, dont even think about turning your hand into a bluff. Sadly, you have to give up and check. Read dependant, i might call but 90% of the time its a sad fold.

[boldie]

yuk, get these spots all the time, dont even think about turning your hand into a bluff. Sadly, you have to give up and check. Read dependant, i might call but 90% of the time its a sad fold.

As soon as you check, he bets with any two cards (or at least most do). If you bet he can fold a better hand like a smaller diamond.

[AlexMartin]

He doesnt auto bet m8. He value bets high diamonds and checks back all bare kings. About the only way you make money by c/c is off QJ no diamond. Shoving is actually a good play, but seriously high variance and too exploitable by regs. Also, he aint folding most high diamonds which feature heavily in his range. He's getting huge odds.

[Moskvich]

Shoving is actually a good play, but seriously high variance and too exploitable by regs.

I did shove, and he unsurprisingly elected to call with his .

I'm still not really sure what to think about this hand. I suspect it's one of those that's on average just really close in EV terms and it doesn't much matter what I do. Probably heavily player dependent though. If he's calling me on the flop with AQ then any suited ace-rag is also in his range and he's probably calling with the Q too. So picked the wrong player. No doubt serves me right for not paying any attention earlier.

Why do you say that shoving here is too exploitable Alex? I'm not disagreeing, just not sure I really understand.

[kingkev]

In this hand your river range will be polarised between the or bluffs.
For example it would make sense for you to shove the river with yet for you to value bet all 3 streets you are repping    combos of AA, AK and AQs which is only a small part of your preflop range.
It makes no sense for you to play a hand containing  so aggressivly over 3 streets.
Therefore if you bet the river too often it will be apparent you are turning made hands into bluffs. Regs will notice this and call you down lighter or proitably float hoping to hit whilst u stack off bluff repping that exact hand.

 
I hope this helps you Moskvich.

[AlexMartin]

In this hand your river range will be polarised between the or bluffs.
For example it would make sense for you to shove the river with yet for you to value bet all 3 streets you are repping    combos of AA, AK and AQs which is only a small part of your preflop range.
It makes no sense for you to play a hand containing  so aggressivly over 3 streets.
Therefore if you bet the river too often it will be apparent you are turning made hands into bluffs. Regs will notice this and call you down lighter or proitably float hoping to hit whilst u stack off bluff repping that exact hand.

 
I hope this helps you Moskvich.

gd post. Hope this explains why its exploitable Mosk.

[Moskvich]

Yep cheers, thanks for that answer. Kind of assumed that's what was meant, but wasn't sure that was the whole of it.

The adjustment issue is an interesting one - at the lower stakes, and especially in 8/9 handed games, I reckon regs don't adjust nearly as much as they should or could. So when balancing bluffs with made hands/nut hands in situations like this I suspect I should generally be skewing that range more towards the bluff side. But obviously the exploitability point still stands.

[kingkev]

3 more reasons i hate turning this hand into a bluff:

Villain has show down equity - After he calls the turn we can put him on min of TP or st draw with a diamond so by the river he has a min of TP

We still have excellent showdown value with basically the nut non flush hand (id rather consider turning 1 pair into a bluff which could fold out 2 pair combos)

200nl Villains who limp call raises are incapable of river value betting medium strong hands when checked to

[FuglyBaz]

Great explanations about the play at the end.

Just as a side question though, do you think this situation could have been avoided if the flop bet was nearer to pot size? I'm just thinking with two players to act behind, perhaps the bet is too small given they could both call - Villain would be getting brilliant odds if he had two diamonds in his hand. Obviously one diamond he shouldnt be involved at all.

I've had similar situations myself before where the best they can be is around 25% favourite, bet based on not giving one player the odds to call, but forgetting about the third player.

Just thought I'd ask the question as it was on my mind

[AlexMartin]

flop bet is good, turn bet could maybe be a bit more.

[totalise]

I like shoving here at least some % of the time, it makes you ridiculously hard to play against. A poster previously said that shoving here polarizes your range to either or a bluff, but if thats the case, then shoving here with 1010 can be great for value as if they call with a small diamond, they should be calling with Kx no diamond, if they really think you have the or nothing. it also lets you value bet so thin, lets you represent a lot more hands. People that shove 1010 here are about the hardest players to exploit, because it gives them such a wide range on the river. Put yourself in the callers shoes, would you prefer to have ur oppo have nuts or nothing, or would you prefer him to be able to shove hands like sets/mid diamonds for value.

Theres two types of opponents that are unbelievably hard to play against, those that value bet thin in spots where they *shouldn't* be value-betting, and those that can accurately incorporate overbets into their range. I think most people play into the hands of their opponents, they dont have a wide enough range on the river. Of course, this is a function of play on previous streets, but the wider you can keep your range, on any street, the less likely it is that your opponents can know your hand, and to finish that line off, the more likely they are to make a mistake. Narrow range=bad. (unless of course you know that they are aware how narrow your range is, but thats for another day)

[Moskvich]

Very interesting totalise, thanks for that post.