Fold the nuts?

[NoflopsHomer]

Full Tilt Poker Game #6292209482: Table Hathaway (6 max) - $1/$2 - Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 23:34:41 ET - 2008/05/04
Seat 1: codice ($80.85)
Seat 3: PhanaticSlim ($216.35)
Seat 4: trottstar ($310.20)
Seat 5: Foaming_Homer ($200)
Seat 6: Wurtzyboy ($214.75)
trottstar posts the small blind of $1
Foaming_Homer posts the big blind of $2
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Foaming_Homer [ ]
codice stands up
Wurtzyboy calls $2
codice folds
PhanaticSlim folds
trottstar calls $1
Foaming_Homer raises to $8
Wurtzyboy calls $6
trottstar calls $6
*** FLOP *** [ ]
trottstar has 15 seconds left to act
trottstar checks
Foaming_Homer has 15 seconds left to act
Foaming_Homer bets $16
Wurtzyboy raises to $48
trottstar calls $48

[Ironside]

possibkly a good fold

you have the nuts but lots of hands are big favourites too your espically against 2 players

maybe a call and shove on a blank turn

[ACE2M]

definitely a time where you could fold the nuts.

The extra player flat calling maybe means you can call though as it closes the betting. Funny situation on the turn though, if deeper stacked i would like it to check to the raiser and hope to get some of the trottstar money in but it will commit so thats out.   So your only hope will be a blank turn and shovel it in. They only thing that causes a little doubt is that you were the raiser so he could be re popping what he thinks is aces with top 2 and a straight draw or something like that, maybe a total bluff on a scary board if hes capable of it.

Actually just give this up and don't raise with low rundowns again, one of the most unprofitable hands in plo for me.

[Royal Flush]

Jam it in, people assume you have Aces he prob has a set 2 pair fd/str8 draw combo etc. Other guy prob 1 of those hands as well.

[ACE2M]

Jam it in, people assume you have Aces he prob has a set 2 pair fd/str8 draw combo etc. Other guy prob 1 of those hands as well.

long term -EV play, your equity is about what your putting in to the pot in good cases and can go down to being in pretty bad shape. If we make the assumption that both will end up calling a shove which seems likely.

[NoflopsHomer]

Foaming_Homer has 15 seconds left to act
Foaming_Homer calls $32
*** TURN *** [ ] []
trottstar has 15 seconds left to act
trottstar bets $168
Foaming_Homer calls $144, and is all in
Wurtzyboy calls $158.75, and is all in
trottstar shows [ ]
Foaming_Homer shows [ ]
Wurtzyboy shows [ ]
Uncalled bet of $9.25 returned to trottstar
*** RIVER *** [ ] []
trottstar shows a straight, Jack high
Wurtzyboy shows three of a kind, Nines
trottstar wins the side pot ($29.50) with a straight, Jack high
Foaming_Homer shows a straight, Ten high
trottstar wins the main pot ($597) with a straight, Jack high

[ACE2M]

Foaming_Homer has 15 seconds left to act
Foaming_Homer calls $32
*** TURN *** [ ] []
trottstar has 15 seconds left to act
trottstar bets $168
Foaming_Homer calls $144, and is all in
Wurtzyboy calls $158.75, and is all in
trottstar shows [ ]
Foaming_Homer shows [ ]
Wurtzyboy shows [ ]
Uncalled bet of $9.25 returned to trottstar
*** RIVER *** [ ] []
trottstar shows a straight, Jack high
Wurtzyboy shows three of a kind, Nines
trottstar wins the side pot ($29.50) with a straight, Jack high
Foaming_Homer shows a straight, Ten high
trottstar wins the main pot ($597) with a straight, Jack high

i'd have probably done that to. You were in a bad spot even when the money went in and a terrible spot to get it in on the flop..

[doubleup]

jees I make OPs hand about 9% on the flop - is that right?

[ACE2M]

jees I make OPs hand about 9% on the flop - is that right?

yep

[NoflopsHomer]

jees I make OPs hand about 9% on the flop - is that right?

But I got it in on the turn when I was 19% to win...

[Sunday8pm]

Wow, you can't set 3 players hands up any better - Full tilt rigged obviously

[EvilPie]

Well I thought I was a half decent omaha player but according to everyone here who thinks the fold is good I can't be.

I can't possibly see how anyone can fold the nuts in a cash omaha game? I'd have jammed the flop in an instant. This might've got rid of Trottstar but once he had his flush draw as well he was going nowhere. You can see that this is what Wurtzyboy wanted to do. He was trying to protect his set against draws.

Even on the turn you're ahead, I know there's loads of draws out there but they've still got to hit. I can see here how the fold may be wise but there's too much in the pot. You're getting 3 to 1 on your money and you don't know that you're only 19%.

I think the mistake was just calling the flop. You know that you're ahead at that moment so get it in.

To put the game of omaha in to it's most basic form (which is the way I play it  ) if you've got the nuts but there's a draw out there that could beat you then get it in now so that he hasn't got the right price to call.

Why overcomplicate it by thinking long term EV etc. You're winning!! JAM!!!

Or am I just stupid??

[ACE2M]

Well I thought I was a half decent omaha player but according to everyone here who thinks the fold is good I can't be.

I can't possibly see how anyone can fold the nuts in a cash omaha game? I'd have jammed the flop in an instant. This might've got rid of Trottstar but once he had his flush draw as well he was going nowhere. You can see that this is what Wurtzyboy wanted to do. He was trying to protect his set against draws.

Even on the turn you're ahead, I know there's loads of draws out there but they've still got to hit. I can see here how the fold may be wise but there's too much in the pot. You're getting 3 to 1 on your money and you don't know that you're only 19%.

I think the mistake was just calling the flop. You know that you're ahead at that moment so get it in.

To put the game of omaha in to it's most basic form (which is the way I play it  ) if you've got the nuts but there's a draw out there that could beat you then get it in now so that he hasn't got the right price to call.

Why overcomplicate it by thinking long term EV etc. You're winning!! JAM!!!

Or am I just stupid??

i don't want so say that you are stupid but you are certainly wrong.


Equity is king as is the long term.

[ACE2M]

Well I thought I was a half decent omaha player but according to everyone here who thinks the fold is good I can't be.

I can't possibly see how anyone can fold the nuts in a cash omaha game? I'd have jammed the flop in an instant. This might've got rid of Trottstar but once he had his flush draw as well he was going nowhere. You can see that this is what Wurtzyboy wanted to do. He was trying to protect his set against draws.

Even on the turn you're ahead, I know there's loads of draws out there but they've still got to hit. I can see here how the fold may be wise but there's too much in the pot. You're getting 3 to 1 on your money and you don't know that you're only 19%.

I think the mistake was just calling the flop. You know that you're ahead at that moment so get it in.

To put the game of omaha in to it's most basic form (which is the way I play it  ) if you've got the nuts but there's a draw out there that could beat you then get it in now so that he hasn't got the right price to call.

Why overcomplicate it by thinking long term EV etc. You're winning!! JAM!!!

Or am I just stupid??

basically his nut hand is incredibly vulnerable with no improvement potential. He could already be tied for the nuts with the oppo free rolling a draw, he could be up against a combined 2 hand mega draw as he is here. If you jam on the flop his equity for his $200 is around $60, meaning everytime he makes this move he loses $140 on average. He can of course be in better equity situations but if you took an average i would expect to be somewhere around 20/25% so losing him on average around $75 every time he jams the flop.

[EvilPie]

Or am I just stupid??

basically his nut hand is incredibly vulnerable with no improvement potential. He could already be tied for the nuts with the oppo free rolling a draw, he could be up against a combined 2 hand mega draw as he is here. If you jam on the flop his equity for his $200 is around $60, meaning everytime he makes this move he loses $140 on average. He can of course be in better equity situations but if you took an average i would expect to be somewhere around 20/25% so losing him on average around $75 every time he jams the flop.

This makes sense apart from the $60 equity for the $200. Where does the $60 come from? Sorry I'm not up on all the terms.

also if he jams the flop then would it be correct for the other 2 to call? First to act has top set on a decent drawing board so does he call for $152 in to a $320 pot when he's probably behind anyway with a few FH outs to his credit? If he calls then Player 3 may be priced in but if not can player 3 call with 15 outs (only straights, no flushes) and no made hand? I don't think I would without the flush draw for back up.

Once the turn has been seen then there is no chance of a fold from anyone. It's costing Trottstar $160 to win at least $328 if he gets a call. Once Homer calls then Wurtzy's not far off his odds to hit his FH. (Although I'd have folded if I was him).

It just seems to me that this hand could've been won on the flop with an all in. Thoughts??

PS. Thanks for not saying I was stupid