Is there an argument for meta-folding?

[thetank]

Is there a case to be made for meta-folding an any two shove?



Here is the situation. 4 players left on the bubble of an STT

[SB] HERO(1360)
[BB] SuperHungry (1260)
[UTG] JERKIE93 (8170)
[But] Aguilar13 (2710)

The blinds are posted, HERO had 

JERKIE93 folds
Aguilar13 folds
Hero to act???




Big Blind is a pretty decent player, but perhaps slightly too tight. I would have him on calling me less that 20% but I have raised his blind for the last three rounds. (Twice with a 2.5BB raise when I had more chips. On the last round with shove)

For this one hand, I have the big blind calling with about 20-25% of hands. Probably nearer the 25% mark.

It's a standard any two shove that gains us equity equal to just over 0.57 of the prize pool. You would make the play with any two cards.



I wonder if a case can be made that folding here is not such a bad play?

If I shove and he folds (3 times out of 4), he is further convinced as to my stealing, and this will loosen his range on future rounds.
If I don't shove (in an any two spot like this) he takes notice and might tighten up his calling range on future rounds.

As it's obviously better for us if his calling range is small (given the stack sizes and positions, it is very likely I will be in a position to steal his blind again.)


The shove is pretty clear in this example.
+0.7% when he calls with 25% of hands
+1.1% when he calls with 20% of hands


What I'm wondering though, is how much value you would put on folding here as far as it would affect SuperHungry's future calling ranges?

[thetank]

In the actual hand I folded, (which I'm pretty sure was a mistake)

I picked up SuperHungry's blind on the subsequent two rounds before he bust out against one of the bigger stacks. I had pretty decent hands both times (66 and J8s)
I'm wondering if he might have called one of them had I nshoved 94o instead?
The J8s hand might have been the 6th consecutive round that I took his blind, and he would have had less chips.

Hence the question about meta-folding. There must be some value to it, but the question is how much?

[TheChipPrince]

If I shove and he folds (3 times out of 4), he is further convinced as to my stealing, and this will loosen his range on future rounds.
If I don't shove (in an any two spot like this) he takes notice and might tighten up his calling range on future rounds.

I think thats the key part Tank, IF he does notice and note it i think its fine to fold super weak holdings here occassionally as every time you shove his range will widen...  If he is a decent player he WILL notice, but most dont... 

[thetank]

It was late when I posted this. Forgot to mention that the blinds are 100/200

[thetank]

I think thats the key part Tank, IF he does notice and note it i think its fine to fold super weak holdings here 

Shoving 23o is still +0.6% of the prize pool though. That's $2.80 in a $50 STT, so is this adequate compensation?

occassionally as every time you shove his range will widen...  If he is a decent player he WILL notice, but most dont...

I know what you're saying here but  I'm not sure it's only the good players. A lot of pretty bad players will still twig on to the fact that the same guy is beating up on their blind every single round. It's maybe the only thing in the game that they will notice.

The adjustment both the good and the bad player take is the same, they loosen up their calling standards. The bad player just doesn't understand what he's doing.

Some break even players make no adjustent in their calling standards, and just have a moan in the chat box, truly the worst play. (love them)

[TheChipPrince]

I think thats the key part Tank, IF he does notice and note it i think its fine to fold super weak holdings here 

Shoving 23o is still +0.6% of the prize pool though. That's $2.80 in a $50 STT, so is this adequate compensation?

occassionally as every time you shove his range will widen...  If he is a decent player he WILL notice, but most dont...

I know what you're saying here but  I'm not sure it's only the good players. A lot of pretty bad players will still twig on to the fact that the same guy is beating up on their blind every single round. It's maybe the only thing in the game that they will notice.

The adjustment both the good and the bad player take is the same, they loosen up their calling standards. The bad player just doesn't understand what he's doing.

Some break even players make no adjustent in their calling standards, and just have a moan in the chat box, truly the worst play. (love them)

Oh, surprised by that tbh, so can we shove atc every single time here unless we give him a massive calling range?

[action man]

its always a shove.

The point is he needs something to call us

[TheChipPrince]

its always a shove.

The point is he needs something to call us

There must come a point that we've opened his calling range up so much by continually shoving, that shoving here is -EV surely?  (generally i mean, not necessaryaly for the hand in this thread)

[thetank]

If he starts calling us with any king for example, we can't shove ATC anymore. (close to it though)

[TheChipPrince]

If he starts calling us with any king for example, we can't shove ATC anymore. (close to it though)

exactly, so its not always a shove, history dependant

[thetank]

If he's an expert who knows we're shoving any two he can profitably call us with over 50% of hands!
In this instance we would have to adjust and only shove with 40% of hands 22+,A2+,K8o+,K4s+,QTo+,Q9s+,JTs

Of course if the expert then adjusts again to our new range and only calls with 20% of his hands, we could and should shove any two again.

[action man]

its always a shove.

The point is he needs something to call us

There must come a point that we've opened his calling range up so much by continually shoving, that shoving here is -EV surely?  (generally i mean, not necessaryaly for the hand in this thread)

with 10/11bb;s yes not with 6/7

[TheChipPrince]

its always a shove.

The point is he needs something to call us

There must come a point that we've opened his calling range up so much by continually shoving, that shoving here is -EV surely?  (generally i mean, not necessaryaly for the hand in this thread)

with 10/11bb;s yes not with 6/7

So you shove here with 23o knowing that any A, K, pair, decent connectors call?

[thetank]

If he starts calling us with any king for example, we can't shove ATC anymore. (close to it though)

exactly, so its not always a shove, history dependant

It's all about putting people on calling ranges, and yes they will be affected by the history.

In this example, I have him not quite calling with the likes of K4o yet, but he might very well do so soon.



I want to know the value i should assign to easing up on him a bit so he doesn't think I am shoving with ATC. Probably not enough to give away 0.7% but what about 0.3%?

[thetank]

its always a shove.

The point is he needs something to call us

There must come a point that we've opened his calling range up so much by continually shoving, that shoving here is -EV surely?  (generally i mean, not necessaryaly for the hand in this thread)

with 10/11bb;s yes not with 6/7

So you shove here with 23o knowing that any A, K, pair, decent connectors call?

If the big blinds range was something like that.

22+,A2+,K2+,Q2s+,Q5+,J5s+,J8+,T8s+,T9,98s

Then shoving any two would be incorrect. We would still shove a lot of hands though. (40%)


Rare that you'd get called with K4o and Q4o in this spot unless the player was either very very good or very very bad. Most of the time his range will make this an insta-shove.