Heads Up - 2 pair, dangerous board.

[daviebhoy]

I would call and hope to check it down on the river or hit your house and bust him. Raising opponent here as described makes no sense at all when we are close to 100% sure he has a diamond and isn't going to fold.

[Cf]

The problem with raising is any sort of meaninful raise is going to have to be in the 70k+ mark, and the pot you didn't want to build is suddenly very expensive. Do you think the raise will work against this villian? Only you can really answer that.

At this stage I didn't think for one second that a raise would get him to pass. I didn't raise just wondered if anybody out there might be crazy enough to try it.

If I raise and he shoves I have to pass. For me it was either pass or call.

Ok, so on the turn you can either flat or fold. Either is ok in my book.

Reasons for folding: the odds of hitting your house are pretty much the same as your implied odds (your implied odds are slightly better). but this is assuming he will always stack off once the board pairs, or even that he has a good flush. For these reasons you probably don't quite have the right price to call this.

Reasons for calling: if he does stack off after you hit the house then you win (assuming he doesn't have a better one). may well go check/check on the river and you have the better hand (but we think this is unlikely). folding to this 20k may look weak, and this isn't really an image we want heads up.

So yeah, either is fine

[EvilPie]

Ok so now it continues to the real decision.

I decide to flat his 20k turn bet. I am fairly certain that I'm behind but I am also confident that if I get lucky I stack him off. If I don't I can get away and start chipping away at him again.

So the river comes  and I am now playing the board.

Oppo has a think for a little while and checks. Now I know he bets here if he's confident and he's no reason to think that I'm passing having called his turn bet so why not bet?

I just know that he's not happy with his hand.

So what to do now.

Do I just give it up or do I take a stab at it? And if I take a stab how much do we think?

Pot is around 110k we both have around 195k back.

[daviebhoy]

You seem pretty certain he has a diamond and you are beat so its a question of whether or not you can make him fold the best hand. To do this you are going to have to invest a lot of your stack. An all-in here would probably be the most likely way you can make him fold but is extremely risky.

If you don't think he has a diamond then a small value bet should win the pot.

It is difficult but I think we should be sticking to our original plan on the turn and check it down hoping to split it and then get back to chipping away at him.

[daviebhoy]

If we are going to turn our hand into a bluff I think a raise on the turn would have been a wonderful thing. As played I don't think us having the here is very believable.

[StuartHopkin]

Super reads ftw!

You thought he looked weak? If im sure he is weak there is no way im checking behind.

If you think he has a diamond then were not chopping this pot.

Youve shown an interest in the pot throughout and he almost certainly thinks you have a diamond close to his.

Im betting 60k ish at this pot all day long.

How weak was he mattu? Im assuming he turned over the royal flush or quads?

[Numpty Dumpty]

hey matt,

on the flop i like to bet it super-tiny. its obviously still effectively giving a free card, and building the pot a bit, but if he has flopped a flush and is really quite bad i think he will give it away physically a large proportion of the time - i know that you have a very good read on the game so would feel confident on picking up on super-strength.

then, assuming he has just called the flop (i would pass to a raise) on a non-diamond turn i would bet 3/4 pot. this way the pot he will fold a diamond (unless he has  or similar), plus the pot is not too large so if he has you beat you can still get away fairly cheaply.

on a diamond turn i would check-pass against this player who we are confident we can beat in later pots

on this river it feels like you must be beat, and i would be amazed if he does not have a diamond (QQ or similar - surely he would raise the flop, even if he had limped pre), but it is a possibility. however, you say you feel he is weak (i.e maybe has the  or  ). Many players would just call off with these hands if you bet 50-75k on this river. Against a better player i would bet the pot, but against this villain i would give up (as you can be fairly confident you will out-manouver him in later pots)

[Numpty Dumpty]

sorry, just to clarify, you said he lead out the turn. does this mean that the blinds were the wrong way round for HU? (as in BB on the button - i hate this) or did you check the turn to him?

[EvilPie]

sorry, just to clarify, you said he lead out the turn. does this mean that the blinds were the wrong way round for HU? (as in BB on the button - i hate this) or did you check the turn to him?

No mate it was right. I messed up the OP tbh. I was SB and limped. Decided not to rectify it as I thought nobody would notice and it didn't really affect later streets once I'd fixed it.

He's raising pre from my limp with any hand that he would raise the SB from anyway so I don't think it affects his range other than he may have just passed pre from the button.

Well done for spotting it and making me look a fool.