How much do you raise on the river?

[Jon MW]

Within sight of the bubble, but a deepstack game so in reality quite a long time to go.

lovehailey is a tight player who has got his chips by overbetting the nuts and getting called.
skimmel hasn't played many hands, and hasn't had hands go to showdown.


PokerStars Game #33516325893: Tournament #199550384, $10+$1 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (200/400) -
2009/10/01 21:42:19 WET [2009/10/01 16:42:19 ET]

Table '199550384 36' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: skimmel (26979 in chips)
Seat 2: RoyalOdoyle (35137 in chips)
Seat 3: Jon MW (18435 in chips)
Seat 4: willstarsz (23716 in chips)
Seat 5: JBF76 (28279 in chips)
Seat 6: mickisright (29638 in chips)
Seat 7: TaintSniffer (20746 in chips)
Seat 8: lovehailey (58704 in chips)
Seat 9: el gringo 69 (9845 in chips)

<<everyone posts antes>>

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Jon MW [ ]
el gringo 69: folds
skimmel: calls 400
RoyalOdoyle: raises 450 to 850
Jon MW: calls 850
willstarsz: folds
JBF76: folds
mickisright: folds
TaintSniffer: folds
lovehailey: calls 450
skimmel: calls 450

*** FLOP *** [ ]
lovehailey: bets 1600
skimmel: calls 1600
RoyalOdoyle: folds
Jon MW: calls 1600

*** TURN *** [ ] []
lovehailey: checks
skimmel: checks
Jon MW: checks

*** RIVER *** [ ] []
lovehailey: bets 1200
skimmel: calls 1200

...


How much value can I get out of this?

I think both players would have bet the turn if they had the king
and I think lovehailey would have bet more on the river, and I think skimmel would have raised

If I go all in I think they'll both fold unless they've got  aking, quads or aces (although I think they would have bet out more if they had)

So how much is a good raise? Or should it be a shove in case at least one of them does call?

[BulldozerD]

initial reaction is 3bet preflop and just call the river, raising is quite thin 3 way like this.

[gatso]

yeah, I'm thinking call the river

[AlexMartin]

im thinking fold, raising isnt thin, its spew.

[action man]

raising is a huge spew, but folding is burning money also. Just call plz

[kinboshi]

Call on the river.

Why the flat-call pre-flop?  Makes no sense to me.

[Jon MW]

Call on the river.

Why the flat-call pre-flop?  Makes no sense to me.

Royalodoyle is an idiot - I'm not worried about him, the reason I didn't 3 bet pre was exemplified by a hand a bit later where he had a hand where he and another player managed to create a 150 big blind pot preflop when he had AT against KK. This might sound like a good spot to get in to,  but I don't really like gambling that big pre when they were all a bit rubbish in post flop play.

By the river, Skimmel is a bit more of a risk, but I think both players would have played the hands completely differently if they had hands which were beating me - in fact the hands I put them on were on a very narrow range judging by the hands they'd played before, and were pretty much what they had.

Thanks for the vote of confidence in my people reading and hand reading skillz  

[outragous76]

Jon. I dont think people are being critical here. You seem to be missing a fundamental point. You a very unlikely to get called by worse. Therefore there is no value in your raise. If you still think queens full is good, just call.   

[GreekStein]

im thinking CALL, raising isnt thin, its spew.

[EvilPie]

The only hands I'm raising here are 7x, possibly KK because I don't think the 7's out there, possibly 1010 because Kx might call and complete air if I'm feeling a bit frisky.

QQ is 100% call every time. There is no value raising at all. Kx calls you 10x probably folds or at least should fold and 7x obviously reraises.

What do you do if you raise and one of your oppo's shoves? You think you're winning now with your VB but would you still think so then or would you pass?

[Royal Flush]

Royalodoyle is an idiot - I'm not worried about him, the reason I didn't 3 bet pre was exemplified by a hand a bit later where he had a hand where he and another player managed to create a 150 big blind pot preflop when he had AT against KK. This might sound like a good spot to get in to,  but I don't really like gambling that big pre when they were all a bit rubbish in post flop play.

Forget everything else in this hand, this is alarming, if you don't want to get in huge pots with QQ preflop vs a maniac then poker tournaments are going to become very hard!

[Jon MW]

Royalodoyle is an idiot - I'm not worried about him, the reason I didn't 3 bet pre was exemplified by a hand a bit later where he had a hand where he and another player managed to create a 150 big blind pot preflop when he had AT against KK. This might sound like a good spot to get in to,  but I don't really like gambling that big pre when they were all a bit rubbish in post flop play.

Forget everything else in this hand, this is alarming, if you don't want to get in huge pots with QQ preflop vs a maniac then poker tournaments are going to become very hard!

Yes, I know I can be overly risk averse at times and sometimes it's cost me a final table finish.

AA and KK are no problem, but when it gets to holding just a pair of Q's and below it starts to play on my mind how much I can lose rather than the probability of how much I can win. I need to work on this.

Is there a limit you would risk pre? 100 blinds, 1000 blinds, 10000blinds?

Does it make a difference that every player who is agressive on this table preflop folds post flop if they miss? (safe risk free small pots - I like those).

[Jon MW]

... Kx calls you 10x probably folds or at least should fold and 7x obviously reraises.

...

Both of these players bet more pre with AA and KK, both of them bet on the turn with either a King or a flush (in hindsight I realise that medium connectors could have made a low flush and they'd have still checked but hey ho) - and a handful of 7's reraise on the river, but I think they're unlikely apart from (in hindsight again) 67, 78 and A7.

It leaves a slow played Tens (I didn't really think of this at the time though) which is a risk and Jacks and 10x which call a raise if it's small enough - hence the question of how small?

In a way everyone saying a raise is a spew has at least reassured me that I didn't miss out on any value

...
What do you do if you raise and one of your oppo's shoves? You think you're winning now with your VB but would you still think so then or would you pass?

I realise I've made a horrible, horrible mistake and they deserve my chips - and fold

[MANTIS01]

Royalodoyle is an idiot - I'm not worried about him, the reason I didn't 3 bet pre was exemplified by a hand a bit later where he had a hand where he and another player managed to create a 150 big blind pot preflop when he had AT against KK. This might sound like a good spot to get in to,  but I don't really like gambling that big pre when they were all a bit rubbish in post flop play.

Forget everything else in this hand, this is alarming, if you don't want to get in huge pots with QQ preflop vs a maniac then poker tournaments are going to become very hard!

Yes, I know I can be overly risk averse at times and sometimes it's cost me a final table finish.

AA and KK are no problem, but when it gets to holding just a pair of Q's and below it starts to play on my mind how much I can lose rather than the probability of how much I can win. I need to work on this.

Is there a limit you would risk pre? 100 blinds, 1000 blinds, 10000blinds?

Does it make a difference that every player who is aggressive on this table preflop folds post flop if they miss? (safe risk free small pots - I like those).

I got one bit of good advice from an Erick Lingdren book I read once. "Look at all hands as an opportunity to win rather than a reason to lose". That's it. From a whole book. But it's really good advice to approach tournaments with. If you're not looking to maximise the potential of each hand you play you can only win tournaments by getting lucky. You ask whether it makes a difference that every player who is aggressive preflop folds post flop if they miss. Sure it makes a difference. Cos when you pick up queens you want to get your monies into the middle vs worse hands before they have a chance to miss.

[GreekStein]

Royalodoyle is an idiot - I'm not worried about him, the reason I didn't 3 bet pre was exemplified by a hand a bit later where he had a hand where he and another player managed to create a 150 big blind pot preflop when he had AT against KK. This might sound like a good spot to get in to,  but I don't really like gambling that big pre when they were all a bit rubbish in post flop play.

Forget everything else in this hand, this is alarming, if you don't want to get in huge pots with QQ preflop vs a maniac then poker tournaments are going to become very hard!

Yes, I know I can be overly risk averse at times and sometimes it's cost me a final table finish.

AA and KK are no problem, but when it gets to holding just a pair of Q's and below it starts to play on my mind how much I can lose rather than the probability of how much I can win. I need to work on this.

Is there a limit you would risk pre? 100 blinds, 1000 blinds, 10000blinds?

Does it make a difference that every player who is aggressive on this table preflop folds post flop if they miss? (safe risk free small pots - I like those).

I got one bit of good advice from an Erick Lingdren book I read once. "Look at all hands as an opportunity to win rather than a reason to lose". That's it. From a whole book. But it's really good advice to approach tournaments with. If you're not looking to maximise the potential of each hand you play you can only win tournaments by getting lucky. You ask whether it makes a difference that every player who is aggressive preflop folds post flop if they miss. Sure it makes a difference. Cos when you pick up queens you want to get your monies into the middle vs worse hands before they have a chance to miss.

Was Lindgren trying to disprove this theory at this years WSOP?