Is this play +EV ???

[Rod]

OK this is a play I made in a session I was playing on Blonde recently. To be honest it takes a bit of explaining and it may be one of those you can't really say if it is right or wrong unless you are at the table. The story is, the Villan in this hand was playing very agressive pre flop and on the flop with a PFR of 40% (and a VP$IP of 70+) and a C-Bet of +90% on the flop and he seemed to continue his agression on the turn a lot of the time (he had twice folded to raises after betting pre flop, the flop and the turnthis session). He also seemed to like to chase draws to the river, I have over 100 hands on the player (not a massive sample but enough).

So anyway I open limp with 10-Js (questionable I know and call his raise to $2. We get to the flop and I have nothing except a gutshot. I float his bet intending to take the pot away on the turn. I don't have to put him on the King here or even a pair at this point, as I know he is likely to have raised and c-bet with a wide range of hands. Turn actually gives me a straight draw and I check raise his bet. I don't go allin as I want the chance to take the pot on the river if he is drawing so want to leave enough beind to bluff even if I don't hit the draw. He calls (which was not the plan) and the board pairs kings and does not complete any draws. I am not conviced he has the king, he could have missed some sort of draw the way I think he plays, he checks. Easy shove

GAME #1900473963: Texas Hold'em NL $0.25/$0.50 2009-10-16 20:34:06
Table Argon
Seat 1: VolanDDog ($49.50 in chips)
Seat 3: trinitycollege ($57.46 in chips)
Seat 5: Schoeningen ($112.06 in chips)
Seat 6: anauticax ($43.00 in chips)
Seat 8: Rodder5 ($43.75 in chips)
Seat 10: darko163 ($89.31 in chips) DEALER
VolanDDog: Post SB $0.25
trinitycollege: Post BB $0.50
Rodder5: Post SB $0.25
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Rodder5 [ ]
Schoeningen: Fold
anauticax: Fold
Rodder5: Call $0.50
darko163: Fold
VolanDDog: Call $0.25
trinitycollege: Raise (NF) $2.00
Rodder5: Call $1.50
VolanDDog: Call $1.50
*** FLOP *** [ ]
VolanDDog: Check
trinitycollege: Bet $3.80
Rodder5: Call $3.80
VolanDDog: Fold
*** TURN *** []
trinitycollege: Bet $8.00
Rodder5: Raise (NF) $20.00
trinitycollege: Call $12.00
*** RIVER *** []
trinitycollege: Check
Rodder5: Bet $17.95

[titaniumbean]

OK this is a play I made in a session I was playing on Blonde recently. To be honest it takes a bit of explaining and it may be one of those you can't really say if it is right or wrong unless you are at the table. The story is, the Villan in this hand was playing very agressive pre flop and on the flop with a PFR of 40% (and a VP$IP of 70+) and a C-Bet of +90% on the flop and he seemed to continue his agression on the turn a lot of the time (he had twice folded to raises after betting pre flop, the flop and the turnthis session). He also seemed to like to chase draws to the river, I have over 100 hands on the player (not a massive sample but enough).

So anyway I open limp with 10-Js (questionable I know and call his raise to $2. We get to the flop and I have nothing except a gutshot. I float his bet intending to take the pot away on the turn. I don't have to put him on the King here or even a pair at this point, as I know he is likely to have raised and c-bet with a wide range of hands. Turn actually gives me a straight draw and I check raise his bet. I don't go allin as I want the chance to take the pot on the river if he is drawing so want to leave enough beind to bluff even if I don't hit the draw. He calls (which was not the plan) and the board pairs kings and does not complete any draws. I am not conviced he has the king, he could have missed some sort of draw the way I think he plays, he checks. Easy shove

GAME #1900473963: Texas Hold'em NL $0.25/$0.50 2009-10-16 20:34:06
Table Argon
Seat 1: VolanDDog ($49.50 in chips)
Seat 3: trinitycollege ($57.46 in chips)
Seat 5: Schoeningen ($112.06 in chips)
Seat 6: anauticax ($43.00 in chips)
Seat 8: Rodder5 ($43.75 in chips)
Seat 10: darko163 ($89.31 in chips) DEALER
VolanDDog: Post SB $0.25
trinitycollege: Post BB $0.50
Rodder5: Post SB $0.25
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Rodder5 [ ]
Schoeningen: Fold
anauticax: Fold
Rodder5: Call $0.50
darko163: Fold
VolanDDog: Call $0.25
trinitycollege: Raise (NF) $2.00
Rodder5: Call $1.50
VolanDDog: Call $1.50
*** FLOP *** [ ]
VolanDDog: Check
trinitycollege: Bet $3.80
Rodder5: Call $3.80
VolanDDog: Fold
*** TURN *** []
trinitycollege: Bet $8.00
Rodder5: Raise (NF) $20.00
trinitycollege: Call $12.00
*** RIVER *** []
trinitycollege: Check
Rodder5: Bet $17.95

Firstly don't open limp. Secondly floating a player who barrels alot isn't going to be very easy.

[Rupert]

this is so terrible i dont even know where to being.

lets try preflop.

open limping allows him to iso you and give him the initiative postflop.  basically your first point of aggression is going to be the river unless you go for a flop c/r or turn c/r as you did.  you aren't maxing your fold equity and your first goal with this hand should be to steal the blinds.  that won't happen by limping.

it gets to the flop and its 3 way.  the initial raiser bets into 2 people on a wet board.  the fact that his cbet % is 90% and not 100% suggests that hes not cbetting wet boards in multi way pots.  what i'm getting at here, is his bet is strong, there is another player to worry about other than the guy whos cbet, and you have J high with 6-8 outs.

so when he double barrels you what exactly are you putting him on?  i put him on sets, strong kings, two pairs, and nut flush draws.  he almost never has air here IMO.  so against that range, what do you think raising achieves?  correct! you put in $20 with absolutely TERRIBLE equity! fuck it, you even priced in the flush draw for good measure.

on the river you fold out flush draws, and occasionally some counterfeited two pairs.  your range is basically sets and air and since it's so tough to have a set, and there's so many flush draws/straight draws that missed, hes gonna have a tough time folding any half decent hand.

overall you're basically setting money on fire with this hand

[titaniumbean]

this is so terrible i dont even know where to being.

lets try preflop.

open limping allows him to iso you and give him the initiative postflop.  basically your first point of aggression is going to be the river unless you go for a flop c/r or turn c/r as you did.  you aren't maxing your fold equity and your first goal with this hand should be to steal the blinds.  that won't happen by limping.

it gets to the flop and its 3 way.  the initial raiser bets into 2 people on a wet board.  the fact that his cbet % is 90% and not 100% suggests that hes not cbetting wet boards in multi way pots.  what i'm getting at here, is his bet is strong, there is another player to worry about other than the guy whos cbet, and you have J high with 6-8 outs.

so when he double barrels you what exactly are you putting him on?  i put him on sets, strong , two pairs, and nut flush draws.  he almost never has air here IMO.  so against that range, what do you think raising achieves?  correct! you put in $20 with absolutely TERRIBLE equity! fuck it, you even priced in the flush draw for good measure.

on the river you fold out flush draws, and occasionally some counterfeited two pairs.  your range is basically sets and air and since it's so tough to have a set, and there's so many flush draws/straight draws that missed, hes gonna have a tough time folding any half decent hand.

awesome I dont have to post a proper reply now 

[poonjoe]

Floating to take the pot away on the turn might have been a good idea if you were in position.

The way this hand plays out, concluding with you making a desperate shove on the river, is a really good example of why you shouldn't play this hand in this way out of position.

[Rod]

No redeeming features then, it really is as bad as it looks. Meh, OK call it a mistake and try to avoid this kind of situation.

OK having got myself into this situation, do I have to shove the river and at least try and win the pot. He has checked to me so could be trapping but every draw has missed and it's $17.95 to win $53. So just on the river given we are, where we are and forgetting how bad the hand has been so far it it a shove or just a check and save $18?

[Rupert]

yeah check, his range is pretty damn strong here

[bolt pp]

no

[salfi]

only thing that can be taken positive out of this hand is that u have a great table image now if ya hand is showndwon. HELLO  metagame

[Rupert]

only thing that can be taken positive out of this hand is that u have a great table image now if ya hand is showndwon. HELLO  metagame

lol, it's not that applicable though!  at these limits, your main $$$ winnings come from value towning the shit out of people, tbh you probably shouldnt be bluffing at all since people are all calling stations.  so your adjustment given the image is what you should have been doing in the first place!