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Poker Hand Analysis
Live 30r
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Topic: Live 30r (Read 5540 times)
EvilPie
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Posts: 14241
Re: Live 30r
«
Reply #15 on:
November 11, 2009, 02:23:13 PM »
Quote from: outragous76 on November 11, 2009, 02:03:52 PM
I think the fact he tank called jj suggests that the play was ok. More a point of being read dependant on villains likely opening range and how he has been playing up to that point!
But that's being results orientated isn't it?
Villain tanks JJ so we know his calling range is very tight.
The thing is though when George made the bet he had villains calling range much wider but still crushing 66.
If we know that JJ is on the limit of his calling range but still assign the same raising range then the shove is fine. As George saw it at the time with his reads it looks like a pass.
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GreekStein
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Re: Live 30r
«
Reply #16 on:
November 11, 2009, 02:34:28 PM »
I just wanna hear that chuckle
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Retired Policeman, Part time troll.
outragous76
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Yeah Bitch! ......... MAGNETS! owwwh!
Re: Live 30r
«
Reply #17 on:
November 11, 2009, 02:36:03 PM »
Quote from: EvilPie on November 11, 2009, 02:23:13 PM
Quote from: outragous76 on November 11, 2009, 02:03:52 PM
I think the fact he tank called jj suggests that the play was ok. More a point of being read dependant on villains likely opening range and how he has been playing up to that point!
But that's being results orientated isn't it?
Villain tanks JJ so we know his calling range is very tight.
The thing is though when George made the bet he had villains calling range much wider but still crushing 66.
If we know that JJ is on the limit of his calling range but still assign the same raising range then the shove is fine. As George saw it at the time with his reads it looks like a pass.
the top end of his openign range is irrelevant, it is how wide is he opening and what % of that range he is folding to a reshove. If JJ is a tank call (and therefoire assuming the bottom of his range then we assume he only calls JJ QQ KK AA AK.
therefore if he is folding th erest it doesnt seem too bad to me. But like i say - the reshove judgement has to be made oon how wide you think he is opening surely?
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EvilPie
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Re: Live 30r
«
Reply #18 on:
November 11, 2009, 02:46:03 PM »
Quote from: outragous76 on November 11, 2009, 02:36:03 PM
Quote from: EvilPie on November 11, 2009, 02:23:13 PM
Quote from: outragous76 on November 11, 2009, 02:03:52 PM
I think the fact he tank called jj suggests that the play was ok. More a point of being read dependant on villains likely opening range and how he has been playing up to that point!
But that's being results orientated isn't it?
Villain tanks JJ so we know his calling range is very tight.
The thing is though when George made the bet he had villains calling range much wider but still crushing 66.
If we know that JJ is on the limit of his calling range but still assign the same raising range then the shove is fine. As George saw it at the time with his reads it looks like a pass.
the top end of his openign range is irrelevant, it is how wide is he opening and what % of that range he is folding to a reshove. If JJ is a tank call (and therefoire assuming the bottom of his range
then we assume he only calls JJ QQ KK AA AK.
therefore if he is folding th erest it doesnt seem too bad to me. But like i say - the reshove judgement has to be made oon how wide you think he is opening surely?
I think you've just agreed with me.....
Now that we've seen oppo tank call JJ we can narrow his calling range to what you say above.
This is new information though which we didn't have at the time. We thought his calling range was much wider when we made the move so probably shouldn't have done it.
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Motivational speeches at their best:
"Because thats what living is, the 6 inches in front of your face......" - Patrick Leonard - 10th May 2015
EvilPie
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Re: Live 30r
«
Reply #19 on:
November 11, 2009, 02:48:09 PM »
Quote from: outragous76 on November 11, 2009, 02:36:03 PM
Quote from: EvilPie on November 11, 2009, 02:23:13 PM
Quote from: outragous76 on November 11, 2009, 02:03:52 PM
I think the fact he tank called jj suggests that the play was ok. More a point of being read dependant on villains likely opening range and how he has been playing up to that point!
But that's being results orientated isn't it?
Villain tanks JJ so we know his calling range is very tight.
The thing is though when George made the bet he had villains calling range much wider but still crushing 66.
If we know that JJ is on the limit of his calling range but still assign the same raising range then the shove is fine. As George saw it at the time with his reads it looks like a pass.
the top end of his openign range is irrelevant, it is how wide is he opening and what % of that range he is folding to a reshove. If JJ is a tank call (and therefoire assuming the bottom of his range then we assume he only calls JJ QQ KK AA AK.
therefore if he is folding th erest it doesnt seem too bad to me. But like i say - the reshove judgement has to be made oon how wide you think he is opening surely?
It's a combination of the two.
If he's opening ridic wide and calling very narrow we can shove pretty much atc.
If he's opening 77+ KQ+ A10+ and calling with most of that range we need something that stands a chance against it as we are likely to be called.
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Motivational speeches at their best:
"Because thats what living is, the 6 inches in front of your face......" - Patrick Leonard - 10th May 2015
outragous76
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Yeah Bitch! ......... MAGNETS! owwwh!
Re: Live 30r
«
Reply #20 on:
November 11, 2009, 02:59:59 PM »
you are assuming he is calling his entire opening range.
THis is the bubble - people get very nitty - he isnt calling 77-99 or AT AJ maybe even AQ and def not KQ etc - but again that depend on the player -and that should be the focus of the decission really
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EvilPie
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Posts: 14241
Re: Live 30r
«
Reply #21 on:
November 11, 2009, 03:30:17 PM »
Quote from: outragous76 on November 11, 2009, 02:59:59 PM
you are assuming he is calling his entire opening range.
THis is the bubble - people get very nitty - he isnt calling 77-99 or AT AJ maybe even AQ and def not KQ etc - but again that depend on the player -and that should be the focus of the decission really
I'm assuming the following as that's the information I have:
"I don't think air is part of his range but is probably KQ suited, A10+, 77+. I also think he will fold the bottom of his range, probably 77-99, AJ, A10 and KQ"
That still leaves quite a large part of his opening range that he calls with all of which we are 50 50 at best against.
His possible hands with passes crossed out:
KQs
A10
AJ
AQ
AK
77
88
99
1010
JJ
QQ
KK
AA
So 6 are passes and 7 are calls. I know there's loads of combinations of A10 and AJ but the AQ and AK offset these and obviously the pairs offset each other. This is a quick calc that I would have time to do in a comp to work out how likely it is that I am going to be called.
The fact that there's a good chance we get called and are crushed makes this a pass.
Flushy's shove range looks about right because at least if we've got his calling range wrong we could be well ahead.
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Motivational speeches at their best:
"Because thats what living is, the 6 inches in front of your face......" - Patrick Leonard - 10th May 2015
GreekStein
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Re: Live 30r
«
Reply #22 on:
November 11, 2009, 03:43:37 PM »
Why don't you just record that laugh and post it in a vid?
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@GreekStein on twitter.
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EvilPie
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Posts: 14241
Re: Live 30r
«
Reply #23 on:
November 11, 2009, 03:50:41 PM »
Quote from: GreekStein on November 11, 2009, 03:43:37 PM
Why don't you just record that laugh and post it in a vid?
I'll try to get it for you mate. It'll only work if it's a spontaneous one recorded during a slowroll.
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Motivational speeches at their best:
"Because thats what living is, the 6 inches in front of your face......" - Patrick Leonard - 10th May 2015
GreekStein
Hero Member
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Posts: 20728
Re: Live 30r
«
Reply #24 on:
November 11, 2009, 03:51:13 PM »
Quote from: EvilPie on November 11, 2009, 03:50:41 PM
Quote from: GreekStein on November 11, 2009, 03:43:37 PM
Why don't you just record that laugh and post it in a vid?
I'll try to get it for you mate. It'll only work if it's a spontaneous one recorded during a slowroll.
On Blatch for best results.
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@GreekStein on twitter.
Retired Policeman, Part time troll.
810ofclubs
Sr. Member
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Posts: 720
EPT Vilamoura!
Re: Live 30r
«
Reply #25 on:
November 11, 2009, 04:24:04 PM »
obv jam and win race v JJ ldo
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Jake Mfkin Cody lols
MANTIS01
Hero Member
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Posts: 6734
What kind of fuckery is this?
Re: Live 30r
«
Reply #26 on:
November 11, 2009, 06:05:14 PM »
People are putting too much emphasis on villain tanking J-J and as such suggest his calling range is relatively tight. I don't agree with that. Unless he has AA/KK he will tank any hand when hero ships 100k. The fact he tanks in this spot is pretty natural and gives abs no indication of what his calling range is. He could just as easy tank call any other hand. In fact considering our perceived jamming range is approx 10-10+/A-Q+ his call with J-J suggests he's quite willing to gamble in this spot and as such his calling range is wider than J-J+ imo. Other factors like image, history, mentality and the other stack sizes at the table are much more important than how quick he makes his decisions. Unless many of these factors are in sync this is a clear fold for me and think jamming is quite spewy actually.
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Royal Flush
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Booooccccceeeeeee
Re: Live 30r
«
Reply #27 on:
November 11, 2009, 06:16:13 PM »
Quote from: MANTIS01 on November 11, 2009, 06:05:14 PM
People are putting too much emphasis on villain tanking J-J and as such suggest his calling range is relatively tight. I don't agree with that. Unless he has AA/KK he will tank any hand when hero ships 100k. The fact he tanks in this spot is pretty natural and gives abs no indication of what his calling range is. He could just as easy tank call any other hand. In fact considering our perceived jamming range is approx 10-10+/A-Q+ his call with J-J suggests he's quite willing to gamble in this spot and as such his calling range is wider than J-J+ imo. Other factors like image, history, mentality and the other stack sizes at the table are much more important than how quick he makes his decisions. Unless many of these factors are in sync this is a clear fold for me and think jamming is quite spewy actually.
Ermm all that is true unless he has the slightest clue how to play poker, in which case he knew str8 away he was snapping.
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StuartHopkin
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Posts: 8145
Ocho cinco
Re: Live 30r
«
Reply #28 on:
November 11, 2009, 06:27:48 PM »
Quote from: Royal Flush on November 11, 2009, 06:16:13 PM
Quote from: MANTIS01 on November 11, 2009, 06:05:14 PM
People are putting too much emphasis on villain tanking J-J and as such suggest his calling range is relatively tight. I don't agree with that. Unless he has AA/KK he will tank any hand when hero ships 100k. The fact he tanks in this spot is pretty natural and gives abs no indication of what his calling range is. He could just as easy tank call any other hand. In fact considering our perceived jamming range is approx 10-10+/A-Q+ his call with J-J suggests he's quite willing to gamble in this spot and as such his calling range is wider than J-J+ imo. Other factors like image, history, mentality and the other stack sizes at the table are much more important than how quick he makes his decisions. Unless many of these factors are in sync this is a clear fold for me and think jamming is quite spewy actually.
Ermm all that is true unless he has the slightest clue how to play poker, in which case he knew str8 away he was snapping.
Above is true, but obv 95% chance he doesnt therefore the above+1 is also true.
I was gonna type it earlier but cba. Honest
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MANTIS01
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Posts: 6734
What kind of fuckery is this?
Re: Live 30r
«
Reply #29 on:
November 11, 2009, 06:35:41 PM »
Quote from: Royal Flush on November 11, 2009, 06:16:13 PM
Quote from: MANTIS01 on November 11, 2009, 06:05:14 PM
People are putting too much emphasis on villain tanking J-J and as such suggest his calling range is relatively tight. I don't agree with that. Unless he has AA/KK he will tank any hand when hero ships 100k. The fact he tanks in this spot is pretty natural and gives abs no indication of what his calling range is. He could just as easy tank call any other hand. In fact considering our perceived jamming range is approx 10-10+/A-Q+ his call with J-J suggests he's quite willing to gamble in this spot and as such his calling range is wider than J-J+ imo. Other factors like image, history, mentality and the other stack sizes at the table are much more important than how quick he makes his decisions. Unless many of these factors are in sync this is a clear fold for me and think jamming is quite spewy actually.
Ermm all that is true unless he has the slightest clue how to play poker, in which case he knew str8 away he was snapping.
Ermm don't you continually slate live players for having no clue James?
People tank for all manner of reasons and yeah some of those reasons are because they are shit at poker. Often people want to just take some time to make sure but are always calling. George chastises himself for acting too fast in this thread as it goes.
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